Alvin Colina

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	TUL	AA	354	45	14	1	12	46	23	77	3	2	-1.5	.254	.314	.415	-.358	.199	.246	.332	.197	-24.6	84-C 2	-0.6
2007	CSP	AAA	296	22	19	0	5	35	17	69	0	0	-2.6	.195	.243	.320	-.562	.153	.203	.255	.147	-36.9	71-C 0	-2.1
2008	LOU	AAA	254	25	8	2	8	54	17	68	2	1	-1.7	.256	.315	.414	-.239	.222	.280	.365	.225	-8.4	52-C -5	-0.5

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 12:40 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	304	27	14	1	9	35	22	80	1	1	-1.3	.231	.295	.379	-.173	.231	.294	.391	.236	-0.3	74-C 0	1.2
75^o	297	24	12	1	8	32	21	80	1	1	-1.2	.218	.280	.353	-.244	.218	.279	.365	.221	-5.2	72-C -1	0.7
60^o	291	21	11	1	7	31	20	80	1	1	-1.2	.207	.268	.333	-.301	.207	.266	.343	.208	-9.0	71-C -1	0.2
50^o	284	19	10	1	6	29	18	80	1	1	-1.1	.195	.254	.310	-.362	.195	.253	.320	.194	-12.8	70-C -1	-0.2
40^o	279	17	10	1	5	27	17	80	1	1	-1.1	.187	.244	.294	-.408	.187	.243	.303	.182	-15.5	68-C -1	-0.5
25^o	274	15	9	1	5	26	17	79	1	0	-1.0	.179	.235	.279	-.447	.179	.234	.288	.171	-17.8	67-C -1	-0.8
10^o	255	11	7	1	4	21	14	78	1	0	-0.9	.157	.209	.236	-.565	.157	.208	.244	.131	-23.6	63-C -2	-1.5
Weighted Mean	287	19	10	1	6	29	18	81	1	1	-1.1	.194	.253	.309	-.360	.194	.252	.318	.191	-11.6	70-C -1	0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
37%	48%	37%	22%	1.22

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 27)	287	19	10	1	6	29	18	81	1	1	-1.1	.194	.253	.309	-.360	.194	.252	.318	.191	-11.6	70-C -1	0.0
2010 (age 28)	253	15	10	0	6	25	15	71	1	0	-0.7	.188	.244	.305	-.405	.186	.240	.311	.185	-10.7	63-C -1	0.0
2011 (age 29)	253	18	9	1	6	28	17	69	1	1	-0.6	.205	.265	.332	-.324	.202	.260	.338	.205	-5.3	63-C 0	0.2
2012 (age 30)	245	16	8	0	7	26	15	68	1	0	-0.4	.190	.249	.321	-.375	.188	.244	.327	.192	-5.3	61-C 0	0.2
2013 (age 31)	206	13	7	0	5	23	14	53	1	0	-0.3	.194	.257	.318	-.362	.192	.252	.323	.197	-3.1	52-C -1	0.0
2014 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.209	.271	.336
vs RHP	.191	.247	.297
Split	+.018	+.024	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-12.5	-1.0	0.0	$400,000	-12.9	0.1
2010	-12.4	-1.0	0.0	$400,000	-11.5	0.6
2011	-8.1	0.0	0.2	$400,000	-5.4	1.0
2012	-10.6	0.0	0.2	$400,000	-4.9	0.7
2013	-8.1	-1.0	0.0	$400,000	-3.6	0.2
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.5	$400,000	0.0	2.9

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.221	.194	.171	.191
2010	.215	.193	.148	.185
2011	.225	.213	.182	.205
2012	.228	.196	.154	.192
2013	.231	.194	.168	.197
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	22%	0%	37%
2010	45%	22%	22%
2011	55%	34%	33%
2012	70%	49%	24%
2013	82%	64%	17%
2014	83%	69%	19%
2015	91%	79%	16%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Bruce Bochy	1982	70		11	Luis Pujols	1983	50
2	Gilberto Reyes	1991	66		12	Dane Sardinha	2006	49
3	Adan Amezcua	2001	65		13	Omir Santos	2008	49
4	Yamid Haad	2005	58		14	Tony Kounas	1995	48
5	Henry Mercedes	1997	55		15	Alan Probst	1998	48
6	Jonathan Aceves	2005	55		16	Eli Whiteside	2007	48
7	Robert Machado	2000	54		17	Brad Cresse	2006	47
8	Juan Espino	1983	53		18	Jim Horner	2001	47
9	Guillermo Rodriguez	2005	53		19	Sandy Martinez	2000	47
10	Vic Valencia	2004	52		20	Jorge Pedre	1994	46

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