Clay Condrey

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Long Clay Condrey 10 0 4.14 1.30 10 3 1 6 1 0 0 1.2

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:31 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	2	2	45	0	54.3	58	16	30	5	50%	.292	-3	1.35	3.35	0	3.49	9.5	2.3	4.2	0.8	13.5	1.1	1.8
75^o	3	2	1	40	0	49.3	57	15	26	5	50%	.309	-6	1.47	4.25	0	4.44	10.3	2.5	4.1	0.9	6.8	0.5	1.1
60^o	2	2	1	38	0	46.7	56	15	25	5	50%	.318	-8	1.53	4.73	0	4.95	10.8	2.5	4.1	0.9	3.7	0.3	0.8
50^o	2	2	1	37	0	45.3	56	15	24	5	50%	.323	-8	1.56	5.03	0	5.26	11.0	2.6	4.0	1.0	1.9	0.1	0.6
40^o	2	2	1	35	0	43.7	55	15	22	5	50%	.328	-9	1.60	5.34	0	5.59	11.3	2.6	4.0	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.4
25^o	1	2	0	29	0	36.0	51	13	18	5	50%	.353	-14	1.79	6.92	0	7.27	12.7	2.9	3.8	1.1	-6.8	-0.6	-0.3
10^o	1	2	0	19	0	24.0	38	9	11	3	50%	.374	-20	1.96	9.65	0	10.36	14.1	3.1	3.7	1.3	-13.1	-1.0	-1.0
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	36	0	44.3	54	14	23	5	50%	.318	-8	1.53	4.82	0	5.05	10.8	2.5	4.1	0.9	2.8	0.2	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
8%	17%	59%	34%	1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 33)	2	2	1	36	0	44.3	54	14	23	5	50%	.318	-8	1.53	4.82	0	5.05	10.8	2.5	4.1	0.9	2.8	0.2	0.6
2010 (age 34)	2	2	1	33	0	40.0	49	13	20	5	50%	.315	-11	1.54	4.79	0	4.99	10.9	2.6	3.9	1.0	1.9	0.2	0.4
2011 (age 35)	2	2	1	38	0	44.7	56	14	21	5	49%	.319	-13	1.58	5.09	0	5.30	11.2	2.5	3.6	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.2
2012 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.282	.362	.433
vs RHB	.271	.333	.400
Split	+.011	+.029	+.033
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.6	$950,000	2.3	1.5
2010	0.4	$800,000	1.6	1.3
2011	0.2	$650,000	0.4	0.3
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.5	$1,425,000	6.5	5.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.44	5.26	7.27	5.05
2010	4.10	5.24	6.94	4.99
2011	4.30	5.71	7.25	5.30
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	34%	0%	8%
2010	62%	40%	7%
2011	77%	58%	2%
2012	83%	76%	8%
2013	89%	82%	6%
2014	93%	87%	5%
2015	97%	96%	4%

45

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Dale Mohorcic	1989	55		11	A.J. Sager	1998	32
2	Mike Barlow	1981	52		12	Matt Herges	2003	31
3	George Zuverink	1958	50		13	Joe Grzenda	1971	31
4	Fred Gladding	1970	42		14	Al Papai	1950	30
5	Jack Aker	1974	41		15	Buddy Groom	1999	29
6	Phil Regan	1970	39		16	Ron Taylor	1971	29
7	Mark Petkovsek	1999	36		17	Ron Kline	1965	28
8	Howie Fox	1954	34		18	Bob Locker	1971	28
9	Chuck Taylor	1975	33		19	Minnie Rojas	1967	28
10	Todd Frohwirth	1996	32		20	Larry Andersen	1986	27

Player Comments

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2008

Condrey has minor groundball tendencies and major line-drive tendencies; his pitches up get smoked, particularly by lefties, who have career rates of .309/.381/.472 against him. Batters hit about .720 on line drives, so being above-average in that department is about as encouraging as leading the league in cholesterol.

2007

After four years as a starter, Condrey went back to relieving last year and had something of a fluke season with Triple-A Scranton. Typically, anything Condrey throws gets hit, frequently hard, but he did an exceptional job of suppressing extra-base hits with men on base last year in both Triple-A and the majors, preventing opponents from scoring nearly as many runs off of him as they should have at either level. That seems unlikely to happen again. A nine-year minor league veteran, Condrey`s not just a retread, but one with a bent rim and a nail and two pieces of glass embedded in the sidewall. Somehow he`s still holding air.

2003

Well, that idea worked out pretty well, but I still don�t understand how. That 3.50 ERA in Portland was probably something of a miracle and fluke, based on the iffy peripheral numbers. If Condrey can keep up that kind of success with that strikeout rate, he�s a magician. It doesn�t happen very often. It does occasionally, but the better bet is for a significant slide. Certainly, he�s earned a longer look.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Long	Clay Condrey	10	0	4.14	1.30	10	3	1	6	1	0	0	1.2

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	SWB	AAA	4	2	6	39	0	51.1	41	15	28	1	57%	.267	-18	1.10	1.94	4	4.11	9.2	3.3	3.1	0.4	7.6	0.0	1.8
2006	PHI	MLB	2	2	0	21	0	28.7	35	9	16	3	48%	.352	-2	1.53	3.14	0	3.33	11.0	2.7	5.0	1.0	8.1	0.0	1.2
2007	OTT	AAA	1	0	1	10	0	22.0	19	5	10	0	51%	.288	-15	1.09	2.45	3	5.40	8.1	2.2	2.7	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2
2007	PHI	MLB	5	0	2	39	0	50.0	61	16	27	4	48%	.331	-3	1.56	5.04	-1	4.59	10.1	2.5	4.6	0.7	2.7	1.6	1.2
2008	PHI	MLB	3	4	1	56	0	69.0	85	19	34	6	55%	.328	-1	1.51	3.26	-3	2.79	11.0	2.1	4.0	0.8	17.5	0.3	3.0

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats