R.A. Dickey

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Mariners Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot R.A. Dickey 65 12 5.65 1.61 103 41 12 49 3 7 0 -3.2

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:28 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	6	0	23	15	94.3	97	40	53	9	48%	.285	-5	1.45	4.27	4.46	4.41	9.0	3.5	4.4	0.9	12.8	1.9	2.2
75^o	4	6	0	23	15	91.0	96	40	51	10	48%	.289	-7	1.49	4.59	4.71	4.73	9.3	3.6	4.3	1.0	8.7	1.5	1.8
60^o	4	6	0	22	13	84.3	94	38	46	11	48%	.297	-11	1.57	5.26	5.23	5.40	9.8	3.7	4.3	1.2	1.1	0.7	1.0
50^o	3	6	0	22	13	78.7	92	37	43	12	48%	.305	-14	1.63	5.83	5.67	5.97	10.2	3.8	4.3	1.3	-4.5	0.1	0.4
40^o	3	6	0	22	12	73.7	89	35	40	12	48%	.311	-17	1.69	6.37	6.09	6.50	10.6	3.9	4.2	1.5	-9.0	-0.4	-0.1
25^o	2	6	0	21	11	65.7	85	33	35	12	48%	.321	-22	1.79	7.23	6.76	7.35	11.3	4.1	4.2	1.7	-14.9	-1.0	-0.8
10^o	1	5	0	18	8	51.0	74	28	27	12	48%	.340	-31	1.99	8.96	8.10	9.04	12.7	4.4	4.1	2.2	-22.3	-1.8	-1.6
Weighted Mean	3	6	0	21	12	74.0	85	34	41	10	48%	.302	-14	1.61	5.65	5.51	5.79	10.1	3.8	4.3	1.3	-2.6	0.2	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
27%	51%	19%	26%	1.16

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 33)	3	6	0	21	12	74.0	85	34	41	10	48%	.302	-14	1.61	5.65	5.51	5.79	10.1	3.8	4.3	1.3	-2.6	0.2	0.6
2009 (age 34)	3	5	0	21	9	64.7	75	27	36	9	48%	.304	-14	1.57	5.47	5.36	5.61	10.1	3.5	4.3	1.2	-0.6	0.3	0.5
2010 (age 35)	2	5	0	22	8	60.3	75	25	32	8	46%	.319	-17	1.65	5.86	5.87	5.95	10.8	3.4	4.1	1.3	-1.9	0.0	0.2
2011 (age 36)	3	5	0	25	8	63.0	73	29	34	8	48%	.304	-18	1.61	5.42	5.44	5.56	10.2	3.7	4.1	1.2	-0.1	0.2	0.2
2012 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.261	.363	.426
vs RHB	.274	.362	.418
Split	-.013	+.001	+.008
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.6	$725,000	-2.1	2.0
2009	0.5	$650,000	-0.3	2.8
2010	0.2	$475,000	-1.6	1.7
2011	0.2	$500,000	0.0	0.5
2012	0.0	$400,000	-2.0	0.0
2013	0.0	$400,000	-0.5	0.2
2014	0.0	$400,000	-0.6	0.3
Peak	1.6	$725,000	0.0	7.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.73	5.97	7.35	5.79
2009	4.91	5.92	7.36	5.61
2010	5.16	6.28	7.93	5.95
2011	4.56	5.72	6.52	5.56
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	26%	0%	27%
2009	52%	28%	20%
2010	65%	46%	13%
2011	78%	65%	12%
2012	90%	78%	5%
2013	97%	85%	4%
2014	97%	93%	4%

60

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	John Farrell	1996	66		11	Erik Hanson	1999	44
2	Pete Walker	2002	63		12	Roger Craig	1963	44
3	Dave Mlicki	2002	52		13	Craig McMurtry	1993	43
4	Bob Walk	1990	50		14	Ron Darling	1994	43
5	Jim Hearn	1954	50		15	Pete Vuckovich	1986	43
6	Walt Terrell	1992	47		16	Spec Shea	1954	43
7	Bob Buhl	1962	47		17	Dock Ellis	1978	42
8	Aaron Small	2005	46		18	Jared Fernandez	2005	42
9	Pat Rapp	2001	45		19	John Desilva	2001	42
10	Omar Olivares	2001	45		20	Rick Mahler	1987	41

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

There`s no truth to the rumor that the Rangers keep R.A. Dickey around because Texans like men who have initials for first names. He certainly can`t get major league hitters out, though.

2006

The Rangers love Dickey because of his intangibles. How intangible? Off the charts intangible--go ahead, go find `em. He wanted to become a knuckleball pitcher and was very aggressive about learning the pitch, meeting with Charlie Hough and going to the instructional league after the season. Early results were not encouraging, but he is learning a completely new way to pitch and hasn`t been at it very long. He`s still a long shot to be a useful major league pitcher, but he`ll get every chance to be one with the Rangers. We almost forgot the obligatory mention of the missing ligament in his elbow; it`s coming up in a few pages.

2005

Probably no more than 10% of the stories about Dickey don't mention that he lacks an ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow (See? Did it again.). While it's fascinating and admirable that he's made the big leagues without that ligament, it doesn't change the fact that he's not been particularly effective, and hence, has fit right in among Rangers starters. A back injury slowed his 2004 season, and he'll be in the mix as a potential swingman/Quadruple-A starter for 2005.

2002

Dickey is the best of four hurlers that the Rangers chose in the first rounds of the 1995 and 1996 drafts, a fact that goes a long way towards explaining the pitching shortage at the big-league level. Best known for not having an ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm, Dickey has great makeup and gets the most out of what he has, but he has lost five mph off the average fastball he brought from the University of Tennessee. If things break just right, he could latch on as the last man in the bullpen.

1999

A 1996 first round draft pick, Dickey couldn't stay healthy in two years as a pro starter, so they converted him to closer for '98. The result? Not only did Dickey stay healthy, but he tied the FSL record for saves in a season with 38. The above translations reflect that Dickey was too old to still be at A-ball, but he did have a good season. If his serious injuries are behind him, he still has a shot of working his way up to the bigs.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	R.A. Dickey	65	12	5.65	1.61	103	41	12	49	3	7	0	-3.2

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	OKL	3A	10	6	0	19	17	121.7	152	39	81	12	52%	.349	-9	1.57	5.99	6.13	7.22	11.2	3.3	4.0	1.1	-20.9		-0.5
2005	TEX	MJ	1	2	0	9	4	29.7	29	17	15	4	51%	.263	-19	1.55	6.67	4.61	6.00	7.8	5.1	4.2	1.2	-3.1	-0.5	0.3
2006	OKL	3A	9	8	1	22	19	131.2	134	46	61	17	46%	.283	-18	1.37	4.94	5.97	6.37	9.7	3.6	2.9	1.6	-10.5		0.7
2006	TEX	MJ	0	1	0	1	1	3.3	8	1	1	6	19%	.200	-122	2.70	19.09	21.56	18.90	18.9	2.7	2.7	13.5	-4.5	-0.3	-0.8
2007	NAS	3A	13	6	0	31	22	169.3	159	60	119	18	55%	.286	-3	1.29	3.72	5.02	4.95	9.2	3.6	4.9	1.2	11.4		3.4

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats