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Morgan Ensberg
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 33
6' 2"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 ROU AAA 15 2 2 0 2 7 3 1 0 0 -0.1 .500 .600 1.167 1.272 .462 .562 .999 .487 6.0 0.5
2006 HOU MLB 495 67 17 1 23 58 101 96 1 4 -3.2 .235 .396 .463 .080 .229 .396 .451 .294 17.9 108-3B 9 4.2
2007 HOU MLB 259 36 10 0 8 31 31 48 0 1 -1.0 .232 .323 .384 -.130 .229 .326 .381 .249 -0.6 55-3B -12 -1.1
2007 SDN MLB 65 11 3 0 4 8 7 19 0 0 -0.4 .224 .308 .483 .008 .224 .308 .517 .273 2.1 10-3B 4 0.7
2008 BUF AAA 196 24 9 0 5 23 31 43 1 1 0.2 .189 .323 .340 -.384 .152 .278 .280 .203 -14.9 50-3B -14 -2.4
2008 NYA MLB 80 6 0 0 1 4 6 22 0 1 -0.6 .203 .263 .243 -.442 .203 .262 .243 .166 -6.6 15-3B -1 -0.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:42 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 331 51 16 1 12 41 51 75 2 1 -1.4 .259 .377 .458 .117 .263 .381 .481 .299 18.7 80-3B -5 2.1
75o 309 39 13 1 10 35 45 72 1 1 -1.2 .232 .348 .403 -.025 .236 .352 .424 .273 7.2 75-3B -4 1.0
60o 299 35 12 1 9 33 43 70 1 1 -1.2 .221 .336 .382 -.082 .225 .340 .401 .263 3.0 73-3B -4 0.6
50o 286 30 11 1 8 30 39 68 1 1 -1.1 .206 .319 .352 -.160 .210 .323 .370 .248 -2.3 70-3B -4 0.1
40o 276 26 10 1 7 28 37 66 1 1 -1.0 .196 .308 .331 -.216 .199 .312 .348 .236 -5.8 68-3B -4 -0.2
25o 240 17 7 1 4 22 30 60 1 1 -0.8 .163 .270 .265 -.388 .166 .274 .279 .197 -14.7 60-3B -3 -1.2
10o 146 5 3 0 1 8 16 39 0 0 -0.4 .112 .210 .163 -.660 .114 .212 .171 .091 -18.2 38-3B -2 -1.8
Weighted Mean 255 25 9 1 7 27 35 61 1 1 -1.0 .203 .315 .344 -.185 .206 .319 .362 .243 -2.8 63-3B -4 0.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

31%

50%

35%

42%

1.30

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 33) 255 25 9 1 7 27 35 61 1 1 -1.0 .203 .315 .344 -.185 .206 .319 .362 .243 -2.8 63-3B -4 0.0
2010 (age 34) 257 25 9 1 7 27 37 61 1 1 -0.6 .203 .323 .342 -.155 .209 .331 .364 .247 -1.5 63-3B -5 0.0
2011 (age 35) 202 17 6 0 5 21 28 49 1 0 -0.3 .198 .312 .317 -.209 .204 .320 .338 .235 -1.6 51-3B -5 -0.2
2012 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .219 .338 .373
vs RHP .199 .305 .330
Split +.020 +.032 +.043
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -5.2 -4.0 0.0 $400,000 -6.4 1.5
2010 -4.2 -5.0 0.0 $400,000 -4.9 0.3
2011 -5.8 -5.0 -0.2 $400,000 -3.9 0.3
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .273 .248 .197 .243
2010 .277 .246 .205 .247
2011 .249 .216 .174 .235
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 42% 0% 31%
2010 67% 36% 22%
2011 83% 66% 9%
2012 90% 82% 10%
2013 95% 90% 7%
2014 100% 97% 2%
2015 100% 100% 2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

32

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brian Hunter 2002 40 11 Bernard Gilkey 2000 23
2 Mark Johnson 2001 35 12 Kevin Elster 1998 23
3 Brian Daubach 2005 32 13 Willie Jones 1959 20
4 Ted Savage 1969 29 14 Dave Sax 1992 20
5 Daryl Spencer 1963 28 15 Frank Menechino 2004 20
6 Denis Menke 1974 25 16 Ernie Young 2003 20
7 Gene Oliver 1969 25 17 Mark Bellhorn 2008 20
8 Jeff Manto 1998 24 18 Razor Shines 1990 20
9 Jim Dyck 1955 24 19 Greg Norton 2006 19
10 Merv Rettenmund 1977 23 20 Larry Sutton 2004 18

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

As good as Ensberg has been at times, the Astros were right to cut his playing time last season as his low batting average and lack of power rendered him useless. Flipped to the Padres for a player-to-be-named, Ensberg arrived in San Diego just in time to watch Kevin Kouzmanoff get hot and secure the third base job. Non-tendered over the winter, Ensberg can help a number of teams as a platoon player at third base, but he needs a manager willing to suffer his batting average.

2007

Ensberg started 2006 like a hyperactive three year old on triple-espresso shots and double-stuff epinephrine Oreos, hitting .329/.467/.765 with 9 home runs in 85 April at-bats. He hit another 8 bombs in May and had taken 40 walks by June 1, though his batting average was dropping rapidly. He was batting .241/.397/.511 on June 10 when he dove for a foul pop off the bat of Ryan Langerhans and damaged his shoulder. Ensberg played for another month before going on the DL, but his bat had gone deader than Joe Piscopo`s career (.158/.422/.263 with one home run in 57 at-bats). Twenty days of healing and rehab didn`t seem to help much, as Ensberg hit just one more home run during the month of August, but he finished strong, batting .273/.421/.477 with 3 homers in sporadic September playing time, leaving a ray of hope for the future. When healthy, Ensberg has used the Crawford Boxes--Minute Maid`s short right-field porch--better than any other player, slugging 100 points better at home than on the road. He`s neither a great defender nor a favorite of Phil Garner`s, so he`ll remain under threat of trade for the foreseeable future, but the team can`t afford to part with the power production that a fully functional Ensberg provides.

2006

A hand injury cost Ensberg some playing time down the stretch, as well as a bit of power. But despite severe pain and changing his grip on the bat, Ensberg still managed a .400 OBP with significant power in August and September. He finished fourth in the MVP voting and goes into the 2006 season with a healthy paw. If he can hang onto his dramatic increase in walks, there`s no reason that he can`t cement his place among the NL`s best players. Ensberg is an underrated defender as well; he may not look as graceful as Eric Chavez or Scott Rolen, but he`s not far out of their class.

2005

One of the most disappointing players in baseball last year, Ensberg wasn't helped by Jimy Williams' eagerness to get Mike Lamb into the lineup, or Lamb's hot start. He's not young, so you can't realistically expect another 2003 from him. The .299/.349/.477 line he put up after Williams was fired seems like a more reasonable expectation. His defense should fall in between his '03 and '04 performances.

2003

A preseason darkhorse for Rookie of the Year, Ensberg instead fell victim to Williams’s short leash and long memory. He got off to a so-so start, but was still outhitting the Astros’ other third base candidates before being scapegoated for the team’s hitting woes and demoted in late-May. A grand total of five September at-bats clearly indicates Ensberg is no longer in Houston’s plans. He could be had cheap by a ball club looking for a low-cost, effective solution at the hot corner.

2002

Ensberg broke his left wrist at the end of June, which cost him six weeks and might have saved him from being dangled as trade bait. He bounced back to have a great August and a huge winter season. Although he’s not toolsy, his defense has gotten generally good marks. While the Astros are almost falling over themselves denying that they’re considering Ensberg their third baseman, don’t be surprised if he’s starting by May 1. You could make a glib comparison to Sean Berry, because like Berry, Ensberg was relatively old before breaking in. The difference is that Ensberg does everything just a wee bit better than Berry did.

2001

Along with Keith Ginter, Morgan Ensberg was the first Astros hitter to be promoted directly from Double-A to the majors under Gerry Hunsicker’s watch. That’s a hell of an accomplishment for a guy who hit .230 and .239 in his first two pro seasons. Ensberg is just another example of how it’s easier for a prospect with secondary skills to learn how to hit for average than the other way around. He’s not young, and he’s going to have to fight Ginter for a starting job, because the utility spot already belongs to Bill Spiers. Still, Ensberg deserves a future.


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