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Scott Eyre
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 36
6' 1"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cubs Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Long Scott Eyre 40 0 4.11 1.50 36 23 4 37 2 1 1 6.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 SFN MJ 2 2 0 86 0 68.3 48 26 65 3 40% .262 12 1.10 2.64 2.83 2.94 6.4 3.1 7.9 0.4 20.9 3.7 2.3
2006 CHN MJ 1 3 0 74 0 61.3 61 30 73 11 45% .342 13 1.48 3.38 5.52 3.49 9.4 3.9 10.0 1.4 16.5 1.3 1.8
2007 CHN MJ 2 1 0 55 0 52.3 59 35 45 3 41% .366 -3 1.80 4.13 6.08 4.53 10.9 5.4 7.6 0.5 8.7 -0.6 1.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 8:46 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 3 2 3 57 0 54.0 43 26 50 4 43% .265 6 1.28 2.48 3.31 2.63 6.9 3.9 7.4 0.7 19.8 1.7 2.4
75o 3 2 2 50 0 48.3 42 26 46 5 43% .280 3 1.40 3.36 3.93 3.54 7.5 4.3 7.5 0.8 12.7 1.1 1.7
60o 2 2 2 47 0 45.0 41 26 43 5 43% .290 1 1.48 3.91 4.32 4.11 7.8 4.6 7.5 0.9 8.9 0.7 1.3
50o 2 2 1 42 0 41.7 39 26 40 5 43% .300 -2 1.56 4.53 4.75 4.74 8.2 4.9 7.5 0.9 5.1 0.4 0.9
40o 2 2 1 39 0 38.3 38 25 37 5 43% .310 -4 1.64 5.10 5.15 5.33 8.6 5.3 7.6 1.0 2.1 0.2 0.6
25o 2 2 1 34 0 34.0 36 24 33 4 43% .323 -7 1.75 5.94 5.74 6.20 9.1 5.7 7.6 1.1 -1.5 -0.1 0.2
10o 1 2 0 25 0 25.3 30 21 25 4 43% .346 -13 1.96 7.64 6.82 7.98 10.1 6.5 7.9 1.3 -6.4 -0.5 -0.3
Weighted Mean 2 2 2 42 0 41.7 38 25 40 4 43% .292 0 1.50 4.11 4.41 4.31 7.9 4.7 7.5 0.9 6.8 0.6 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

14%

29%

53%

29%

1.05

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 36) 2 2 2 42 0 41.7 38 25 40 4 43% .292 0 1.50 4.11 4.41 4.31 7.9 4.7 7.5 0.9 6.8 0.6 1.0
2009 (age 37) 2 2 2 45 0 44.0 41 24 41 5 44% .291 -1 1.46 4.01 4.42 4.20 8.0 4.3 7.5 1.0 5.5 0.7 0.8
2010 (age 38) 2 1 1 34 0 34.3 31 17 31 4 44% .285 0 1.39 3.96 4.09 4.18 7.8 3.9 7.2 0.9 3.6 0.5 0.5
2011 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .218 .325 .351
vs RHB .246 .356 .398
Split -.028 -.031 -.047
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.0 $1,850,000 5.7 3.7
2009 0.8 $1,625,000 4.7 4.6
2010 0.5 $1,175,000 3.0 1.2
2011 0.3 $800,000 1.6 0.6
2012 0.3 $875,000 1.7 0.9
2013 0.2 $650,000 0.9 0.4
2014 0.1 $675,000 0.9 0.3
Peak 3.0 $4,150,000 16.8 11.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.54 4.74 6.20 4.31
2009 3.35 4.39 6.56 4.20
2010 3.58 4.07 5.41 4.18
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 29% 0% 14%
2009 51% 34% 16%
2010 60% 47% 7%
2011 74% 67% 5%
2012 79% 71% 7%
2013 86% 81% 3%
2014 91% 89% 2%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

42

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Ricardo Rincon 2006 65 11 Dennis Cook 1998 32
2 Norm Charlton 1999 59 12 Turk Lown 1960 32
3 Ron Mahay 2007 50 13 Juan Berenguer 1991 31
4 Ron Villone 2006 42 14 Arthur Rhodes 2005 31
5 Joe Gibbon 1971 42 15 Joey Eischen 2006 30
6 Don McMahon 1966 42 16 Steve Barber 1974 30
7 Mark Guthrie 2001 41 17 Doug Henry 2000 29
8 Ricky Bottalico 2005 40 18 Jim Kern 1985 28
9 Mike DeJean 2006 35 19 Joe Borowski 2007 28
10 Hoyt Wilhelm 1958 32 20 Dan Miceli 2006 28

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

In four years, Eyre`s platoon split has gone from strong against lefties (making him a nifty LOOGY) to strongly bass-ackwards. The conventional wisdom for hitters is that they`re done when they can`t recognize the curve ball anymore, which makes sense (their eyes are going), and tends to show up in their platoon splits. It`s tough to find an analogous mechanism for pitchers to decide what kind of significance to attach to Eyre`s disappearing split, but however valuable he`s been these last couple of years, PECOTA`s expecting Eyre to revert to the pedestrian form he displayed before earning his big contract.

2006

Eyre was second in the majors in Adjusted Runs Prevented and also second in inherited runners stranded, so his was truly one of the best relief seasons of 2005. This was largely because he seems to be figuring out how to get righties out. Right-handed OPS against Eyre by year: 2002: 831, 2003: 804, 2004: 759, 2005: 609. He`s not a LOOGY anymore. He`s a former starting pitcher, so we probably shouldn`t be too surprised. Still, the contract the Cubs gave him, worth as much as $11 million over three years, is quite a bit of scratch to bet on a player with just one outstanding season in his career.

2005

A LOOGY well suited for the role, Eyre has held lefties to a .219/.281/.327 line the last three years; righties have teed off at a .293/.380/.423 clip. Eyre and Brower were sixth and first in the NL in appearances, a function of Felipe Alou's always heavy reliever usage and both pitchers' lopsided, get-him-out-of-there-fast profiles than any innate ability.

2003

Another of Brian Sabean’s mini-coups in 2002. After suffering through Aaron Fultz’s ineffectiveness for the first half of the year, the Giants were desperate for another lefty out of the pen to go with Chad Zerbe. For the cost of a waiver wire claim, Sabean nabbed a good one in Eyre, who gave them solid work down the stretch and during the postseason. Signed by the Giants to a one-year deal, he has a key role in the pen at least until Christiansen returns, and possibly beyond that.

2002

Not even Buck Martinez needs four left-handers in the bullpen, so Eyre spent last summer sampling Finger Lakes wines and blowing away Triple-A hitters. This year, following Lance Painter’s release, Eyre will relocate to the north shore of Lake Ontario. However, his outlook remains the same—a slinger with good stuff and a wild streak that makes rent-to-own furniture a good idea.

2001

Scott Eyre was traded to the Blue Jays in November to give the Sox some roster space. What the Blue Jays plan to do with him is a mystery. He’s their fourth left-handed reliever behind Pedro Borbon, Dan Plesac, and Lance Painter. All three of those guys are situational types, while Eyre throws hard and could be handy in long relief. He’s looking at another fun summer mailing postcards from some very familiar cities around the International League.

2000

Eyre has good velocity for a left-hander, but his control has never been good enough for him to be a one-out specialist. If the Sox don't pick up a veteran, he has a shot to be the second left-hander behind Jesus Pena. He would be valuable if used in long relief.

1998

Acquired from Texas for Esteban Beltre, Eyre lost the ’95 season to a bad elbow. After coming back, it hadn’t robbed him of too much velocity. He was named Pitcher of the Year in the Southern League, and is almost certain to be in the Sox’ rotation in ’98.

1997

After missing most of ’95 to injury, Eyre is somebody the Sox are watching carefully. Despite pitching in Birmingham, a great pitcher’s park, he didn’t put up outstanding numbers. He had an AFL assignment and was lit up.


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