Jesus Flores

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 7 Jesus Flores 5 32 .259 3 1 4 0 .321 .450 1.5

1 2008 Total 5 32 .259 3 1 4 0 .321 .450 1.5

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 10:06 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	344	55	20	1	16	52	28	77	4	1	-0.4	.290	.358	.517	.148	.290	.358	.527	.295	26.1	83-C -5	3.9
75^o	306	41	17	1	12	43	23	71	3	1	-0.4	.270	.334	.472	.030	.269	.334	.482	.274	14.7	74-C -5	2.8
60^o	290	35	15	1	11	40	21	68	3	1	-0.3	.261	.323	.453	-.021	.260	.324	.462	.265	10.4	71-C -5	2.3
50^o	264	28	13	1	9	35	18	64	2	1	-0.3	.247	.308	.425	-.096	.247	.308	.433	.251	4.8	65-C -5	1.7
40^o	247	24	12	1	8	31	16	61	2	1	-0.3	.239	.298	.407	-.142	.239	.299	.415	.242	1.9	61-C -5	1.4
25^o	223	19	10	1	7	27	14	56	2	1	-0.2	.228	.285	.383	-.207	.227	.285	.390	.229	-1.8	56-C -4	0.9
10^o	132	7	5	0	3	13	7	36	0	0	-0.1	.191	.240	.304	-.414	.191	.240	.310	.179	-7.5	35-C -3	0.0
Weighted Mean	255	29	13	1	10	35	18	60	3	1	-0.3	.259	.321	.450	-.030	.259	.322	.458	.263	11.8	63-C -5	2.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
55%	78%	14%	32%	1.07

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 23)	255	29	13	1	10	35	18	60	3	1	-0.3	.259	.321	.450	-.030	.259	.322	.458	.263	11.8	63-C -5	2.2
2009 (age 24)	315	41	17	1	12	45	21	72	3	1	-0.3	.268	.329	.462	.006	.263	.324	.462	.269	11.7	76-C -2	2.5
2010 (age 25)	368	55	18	1	15	55	28	79	4	1	-0.4	.272	.337	.474	.039	.267	.332	.474	.276	16.2	88-C -2	3.2
2011 (age 26)	375	59	20	1	17	58	32	79	3	1	-0.4	.273	.343	.491	.073	.268	.338	.491	.281	17.7	90-C -2	3.2
2012 (age 27)	339	49	18	1	15	50	25	70	3	1	-0.4	.274	.337	.486	.059	.269	.333	.487	.278	16.1	82-C -3	3.0
2013 (age 28)	252	31	14	1	11	38	21	52	2	1	-0.3	.268	.332	.474	.028	.263	.327	.475	.273	11.2	62-C -3	2.3
2014 (age 29)	251	31	13	0	11	38	22	52	3	1	-0.3	.268	.337	.477	.040	.263	.332	.477	.277	11.1	62-C -3	2.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.274	.341	.473
vs RHP	.254	.313	.432
Split	+.021	+.028	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.9	1.3	2.2	$4,000,000	9.9	11.6
2009	1.1	1.4	2.5	$5,225,000	12.4	14.9
2010	1.6	1.6	3.2	$7,675,000	17.0	21.6
2011	1.7	1.5	3.2	$8,750,000	18.7	25.7
2012	1.5	1.4	3.0	$8,250,000	16.2	21.0
2013	1.1	1.1	2.3	$6,150,000	11.2	15.8
2014	1.1	1.0	2.2	$6,250,000	10.3	14.3
Peak			16.3	$30,600,000	85.8	113.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.274	.251	.229	.263
2009	.281	.268	.239	.269
2010	.296	.275	.253	.276
2011	.303	.272	.251	.281
2012	.300	.262	.246	.278
2013	.287	.260	.225	.273
2014	.301	.263	.236	.277

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	32%	0%	55%
2009	33%	10%	70%
2010	22%	11%	75%
2011	30%	15%	75%
2012	34%	18%	66%
2013	54%	22%	58%
2014	51%	23%	57%

Player Comments

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2007

The Mets ended the season with few position-playing prospects, but after the 2006 Rule 5 draft, they had one less. The Nationals grabbed Flores, who tied for the Florida State League lead in home runs last year. The most likely outcomes are that Flores gets returned to the Mets or the Nats keep him but stunt his development; his offensive game is not polished enough for the majors.

Pos	Order	Name	PT%	PA	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	VORP
C	7	Jesus Flores	5	32	.259	3	1	4	0	.321	.450	1.5
1		2008 Total	5	32	.259	3	1	4	0	.321	.450	1.5

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	HAG	1B	337	34	18	0	7	42	12	90	2	2	-0.2	.216	.250	.339	-.223	.176	.199	.265	.141	-38.8	70-C -5	-1.0
2006	SLU	1C	480	66	32	0	21	70	28	127	2	0	-1.5	.266	.335	.487	.174	.240	.293	.442	.250	8.9	102-C 10	4.6
2007	WAS	MJ	197	21	9	0	4	25	14	48	0	1	0.0	.244	.310	.361	-.130	.251	.320	.369	.239	0.8	44-C 2	1.4

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats