Jake Fox

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 10:13 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	592	89	37	2	29	98	39	119	9	3	-1.2	.292	.345	.529	.145	.285	.340	.519	.286	31.0	139-C -14	5.4
75^o	543	71	31	2	23	85	34	109	8	3	-1.1	.275	.328	.486	.044	.269	.323	.477	.269	16.0	128-C -13	4.0
60^o	516	62	29	2	20	78	32	104	7	3	-1.0	.267	.319	.465	-.007	.261	.314	.456	.260	9.2	122-C -12	3.4
50^o	498	57	27	1	19	73	30	100	7	3	-1.0	.261	.313	.449	-.043	.255	.308	.441	.254	4.8	117-C -11	2.9
40^o	468	49	24	1	16	66	28	95	6	2	-0.9	.252	.304	.426	-.097	.247	.299	.418	.244	-1.2	111-C -10	2.3
25^o	438	42	22	1	14	59	25	89	6	2	-0.8	.244	.295	.404	-.150	.238	.290	.396	.234	-6.4	104-C -10	1.7
10^o	349	25	15	1	8	41	19	71	4	2	-0.6	.221	.270	.343	-.291	.216	.266	.337	.203	-16.4	84-C -7	0.5
Weighted Mean	532	64	29	2	20	79	32	107	8	3	-0.9	.264	.316	.456	-.026	.258	.311	.448	.256	10.1	125-C -12	3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
21%	50%	25%	20%	1.00

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 25)	532	64	29	2	20	79	32	107	8	3	-0.9	.264	.316	.456	-.026	.258	.311	.448	.256	10.1	125-C -12	3.1
2009 (age 26)	503	59	27	1	20	72	31	106	7	2	-0.8	.262	.315	.455	-.031	.252	.306	.438	.255	5.2	119-C -11	2.5
2010 (age 27)	462	54	25	1	19	69	29	91	7	2	-0.6	.267	.319	.466	-.005	.257	.310	.448	.260	5.7	109-C -11	2.0
2011 (age 28)	415	47	22	1	18	62	27	81	5	2	-0.6	.269	.324	.474	.016	.259	.314	.457	.263	6.7	99-C -11	1.9
2012 (age 29)	469	56	26	1	20	70	30	93	6	2	-0.6	.266	.322	.472	.007	.257	.312	.455	.262	5.3	111-C -13	1.6
2013 (age 30)	454	54	24	1	20	69	31	87	5	2	-0.5	.273	.326	.478	.028	.263	.316	.460	.265	5.7	108-C -12	1.5
2014 (age 31)	451	54	23	1	21	70	31	87	5	2	-0.4	.268	.321	.483	.022	.258	.311	.465	.264	4.7	107-C -9	1.5

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.279	.332	.479
vs RHP	.259	.309	.439
Split	+.020	+.023	+.040
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	1.3	1.8	3.1	$5,200,000	7.5	7.8
2009	1.1	1.3	2.5	$3,675,000	3.0	5.4
2010	1.0	1.0	2.0	$3,300,000	4.0	5.5
2011	1.1	0.9	1.9	$3,475,000	4.3	6.3
2012	0.9	0.7	1.6	$2,700,000	2.4	5.0
2013	0.9	0.6	1.5	$3,000,000	3.6	4.8
2014	0.7	0.8	1.5	$3,375,000	4.3	5.4
Peak			12.7	$16,150,000	24.7	34.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.269	.254	.234	.256
2009	.274	.259	.236	.255
2010	.275	.258	.239	.260
2011	.286	.263	.244	.263
2012	.283	.267	.240	.262
2013	.285	.265	.234	.265
2014	.291	.255	.235	.264

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	20%	0%	21%
2009	30%	8%	18%
2010	47%	29%	16%
2011	50%	29%	21%
2012	55%	37%	21%
2013	61%	49%	17%
2014	72%	54%	14%

Player Comments

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2007

A power surge in A-ball gave Fox a glimmer of prospect status. Until last year`s performance at Daytona, his numbers were consistently on the low side for a major league prospect. He has legitimate power but doesn`t get on base enough. His offense is more than adequate for a backup, but most teams prefer would prefer a better defender. Another year slugging better than .500 will do wonders in creating believers.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	DAY	1C	309	37	20	0	9	40	26	48	5	2	-2.7	.281	.357	.456	.135	.237	.301	.381	.239	-0.6	60-C -3	1.6
2006	DAY	1C	291	45	15	1	16	61	27	49	4	1	-2.7	.313	.383	.574	.359	.273	.334	.504	.284	20.6	48-C -2	2.8
2006	WTN	2A	204	20	17	0	5	25	9	44	0	0	-0.6	.269	.304	.435	.081	.258	.289	.433	.245	3.5	41-C 0	1.3
2007	TEN	2A	388	60	23	1	18	60	17	72	6	2	-3.3	.284	.327	.504	.131	.252	.286	.452	.250	-1.4	35-1B 4	2.0
2007	IOW	3A	108	18	7	0	6	19	5	23	2	0	-0.1	.283	.343	.535	.146	.260	.315	.490	.273	2.3	13-RF 0	0.8
2007	CHN	MJ	15	3	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.0	.143	.200	.286	-.511	.143	.200	.214	.112	-1.5		0.0

Historical Stats