<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Nomar Garciaparra
Los Angeles Dodgers [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
First Base
Bats R
Age 34
6'
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Dodgers Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
1B 5 Nomar Garciaparra 5 34 .284 35 6 36 2 .338 .411 6.3
3B 6 Nomar Garciaparra 40 269 .284 35 6 36 2 .338 .411 6.3
2   2008 Total 45 303 .284 35 6 36 2 .338 .411 6.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 PEO 1B 7 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 -0.1 .200 .429 .200 -.088 .167 .375 .167 .223 -0.4 0.0
2005 WTN 2A 15 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -0.1 .231 .333 .231 -.238 .214 .312 .214 .191 -1.1 0.0
2005 CHN MJ 247 28 12 0 9 30 12 24 0 0 -0.2 .283 .320 .452 .044 .275 .315 .441 .260 8.8 33-3B -5 1.1
2006 LVG 3A 8 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.2 .500 .500 .750 .939 .625 .625 .875 .534 3.8 0.3
2006 LAN MJ 523 82 31 2 20 93 42 30 3 0 -2.1 .303 .367 .505 .199 .299 .364 .502 .295 27.6 114-1B -8 3.5
2007 LAN MJ 466 39 17 0 7 59 31 41 3 1 -0.7 .283 .328 .371 -.067 .283 .333 .376 .250 0.8 64-1B -7 0.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 10:25 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 434 65 24 1 12 42 33 37 4 2 -0.7 .315 .370 .475 .134 .312 .367 .480 .288 23.3 103-1B -2 3.2
75o 409 55 21 1 10 44 30 36 4 2 -0.6 .301 .356 .448 .061 .299 .354 .452 .275 15.1 97-1B -2 2.4
60o 384 46 19 1 8 45 27 34 3 1 -0.6 .288 .343 .421 -.009 .286 .340 .425 .263 7.9 92-1B -3 1.7
50o 376 43 18 1 8 45 27 34 3 1 -0.5 .284 .338 .413 -.030 .282 .336 .417 .259 5.8 90-1B -3 1.5
40o 346 35 16 1 6 45 24 32 3 1 -0.5 .270 .323 .383 -.109 .268 .320 .387 .244 -1.0 83-1B -3 0.9
25o 326 30 14 1 5 45 22 30 3 1 -0.4 .260 .313 .364 -.160 .258 .310 .367 .234 -4.8 79-1B -3 0.5
10o 290 22 12 1 3 44 19 28 2 1 -0.4 .245 .296 .332 -.244 .243 .293 .335 .216 -9.9 71-1B -3 0.0
Weighted Mean 388 45 19 1 8 47 27 35 3 1 -0.5 .284 .338 .411 -.034 .281 .335 .416 .257 8.0 93-1B -3 1.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

31%

45%

26%

0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 34) 388 45 19 1 8 47 27 35 3 1 -0.5 .284 .338 .411 -.034 .281 .335 .416 .257 8.0 93-1B -3 1.5
2009 (age 35) 296 29 14 1 6 36 20 26 2 1 -0.3 .275 .326 .396 -.081 .269 .319 .393 .248 1.0 72-1B -4 0.5
2010 (age 36) 228 20 11 0 5 28 17 20 1 1 -0.2 .276 .333 .403 -.059 .269 .326 .400 .252 1.3 57-1B -4 0.3
2011 (age 37) 231 18 11 0 3 27 16 22 2 1 -0.1 .264 .317 .368 -.145 .257 .309 .365 .234 -0.9 58-1B -4 0.1
2012 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .295 .354 .432
vs RHP .279 .330 .398
Split +.015 +.024 +.033
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.0 0.5 1.5 $1,775,000 1.2 1.9
2009 0.5 0.1 0.5 $700,000 -5.5 0.2
2010 0.4 0.0 0.3 $550,000 -3.2 0.1
2011 0.1 0.0 0.1 $425,000 -3.2 0.1
2012 0.1 0.0 0.0 $425,000 -1.7 0.0
2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 $425,000 -0.8 0.0
2014 0.0 0.0 0.0 $450,000 -0.4 0.0
Peak 2.5 $1,825,000 0.0 2.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .275 .259 .234 .257
2009 .271 .251 .225 .248
2010 .270 .250 .224 .252
2011 .252 .240 .219 .234
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 26% 0% 7%
2009 54% 19% 0%
2010 75% 45% 4%
2011 86% 66% 1%
2012 91% 78% 1%
2013 98% 91% 1%
2014 98% 94% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Banished from Boston and the shortstop position, limited by injury to just 143 games combined in 2004 and 2005, the Garciaparra who signed with the Dodgers in December 2005 was a shadow of the player who gained fame as a member of the late-nineties trinity of great AL shortstops. PECOTA foretold a meager .273/.324/.427 line with just 329 plate appearances, and, when Garciaparra started the season on the DL with an oblique strain, even that seemed optimistic. But, once activated, he conjured up his old greatness, hitting .358/.426/.578 in the first half, including a 22-game hitting streak. The second half wasn`t so sunny, as a prolonged slump (.229/.286/.408) was accompanied by knee and quad strains. The former required another stint on the DL, the latter preceded a pair of dramatic walk-off blasts in the season`s penultimate week which kickstarted the team`s Wild Card run--high drama, fantastic theater, comeback hits from the NL Comeback Player of the Year on the league`s comeback team. Sentiment and J. D. Drew`s departure precipitated a return engagement, as the Dodgers signed him for two more years at $18.5 million; with James Loney in tow, the team at least has the depth to withstand the deal`s probable downside.

2006

Paul Molitor had three seasons with more than a 100 days spent on the DL, on the way to logging a career total of 556 DL days. Nomar`s got two 100-plus seasons so far (2001 and 2005) and his career total is now 367. Molitor may not have had the benefits of advances in sports medicine, but that cuts both ways; Garciaparra can be rebuilt again and again, but like a GM car, after a few too many recalls and repairsyou have to wonder if it isn`t time for a new set of wheels. Ned Colletti took a page from Jim Hendry`s playbook, bringing Garciaparra to the Dodgers in a one-year deal for $6 million, plus $4 million more in playing time incentives. Colletti may want to read up on lemon laws: Nomar`s speed is shot, and his power has gone into a steep dive since he left Fenway; in the last three years, away from the Fens, he`s hit .281/.325/.448. That isn`t star material, especially not at first base, where Nomar is supposed to play in the hope he`ll avoid injury and snap back to form at a less demanding defensive position.

2005

A good, gutsy acquisition by Jim Hendry. The Cubs were in the midst of a messy playoff race in which an extra run or two a week might have made all the difference, and Garciaparra was a good candidate to provide those runs, especially when the alternative was Ramon Martinez. The deal doesn't shine so brightly based on circumstantial evidence since the Cubs underperformed down the stretch while the Red Sox won it all. But Chicago sports fans are lucky to have a GM who is willing to go for the jugular like that, and the Cubs sacrificed little in the way in of meaningful prospect talent.

Garciaparra received a warm welcome in Chicago, and there were none of the clubhouse malcontent rumors that helped to hasten his exit from Boston. That being said, the worry about his defense is legitimate, if a bit overblown, as is the concern about his disposition to injury: There is inertia to injuries, in that players who are healthy tend to stay healthy, and players who are hurt tend to stay hurt. Good health is also a strong predictor of a player's aging pattern into his 30s, and Nomar's injury history and declining isolated power suggest that he might be on the outside looking in while the other members of the Holy Trinity receive their Hall of Fame plaques. Given these risks, getting him to agree to a one-year contract was a real coup, and presents the possibility of an interesting platoon arrangement, in which Neifi Perez fills in on days when groundballer Carlos Zambrano is pitching, giving Nomar some regular days off in the process.

2003

Is Garciaparra’s wrist 100% recovered? In the two years prior to his injury, he was a significantly better hitter. In contrast, his 2002 season more closely approximates his line from 1998 at the age of 24. Nomar is unusual in that he has become less selective as he has matured, drawing only 41 walks last year while seeing only 3.06 pitches per plate appearance. He has also become more of a flyball hitter, dropping from a 1.25 G/F ratio in his youth to a 0.71 ratio last year. More so than Jeter, he remains an asset as a shortstop and as a hitting shortstop.

2002

If you’re looking for someone to blame for the compost pile that was the Red Sox's 2001 season, here are two culprits: Garciaparra and team doctor/part-owner Arthur Pappas. Neither man had the good sense to realize in October 2000 that Garciaparra should have wrist surgery immediately, to avoid his missing three or four months of the regular season recovering from it. Former Bruin forward Jason Allison had a similar injury and remarked that it took him more than a year to get back to full strength; the Sox and Garciaparra wasted five months with their Russian-roulette strategy. It backfired. Nomar played in 21 games, didn’t look like himself at the plate, and shut it down for the year. He should be 100 percent or close to it in 2002, but the Sox need to learn a lesson from the episode or they’ll face the same problem again.

2001

He is perhaps the best bad-ball hitter in the AL, particularly on anything up at the letters that he can just yank into left field. Nomar Garciaparra might post a small power spike in the next year or two, but he seems fully developed at the plate. The best thing that could happen to him and to the Sox would be a move to third base, as folks are finally realizing that the ability to make the play deep in the hole (Garciaparra's forte) is not as important as turning the double play or making the routine throw to first, two tasks that have proven more difficult for him.

2000

Batting champion, cornerstone of the offense, one of the best players in the league...and still getting better. He’s a marvel to watch: fidgety in the batters box, smooth grace in the field. Garciaparra is an Extremely Aggressive Hitter; he saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than anyone on the team with significant playing time, but you can't argue with the results. His defensive reputation is seriously inflated in Boston, but he's still neck-and-neck with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez for the title of best shortstop in baseball heading into 2000.

1999

Gotta speak as a fan here: The most bittersweet moment of the entire season was at the end of the ALDS Game 4 watching Nomar's waving and rallying the crowd until the very end, then coming out of the dugout after the game to thank the fans. As much as it hurt to lose, you had to feel like the future is in good hands with this kid. Sure you'd like him to take a few more walks, but a shortstop who hits like Jim Rice in his prime and shows as much class as this one is something more than special.

1998

The best thing to hit Boston in many years. The power Nomar flashed in a short 1996 stint in Pawtucket was real, as he slugged an unadjusted .533 and set a major league record for RBI by a leadoff hitter. (Note to Nomar: Send flowers to Messrs. Bragg and Frye.) However, Nomar’s fielding was off quite a bit from his minor league performance, although still solid, and his walk rate was totally unacceptable for the leadoff spot. He’ll only get better in both departments, although a move to the two-hole is inevitable and practical.

1997

Garciaparra added muscle last winter and it showed. He also suffered some injuries (ankle, left knee) that cut into his playing time. Has already moved Valentin to third, or possibly out of Boston, and will join the AL’s list of good young shortstops in 1997. Good defensive player.

1996

The club's favorite prospect. For his age and position, his hitting isn't bad at all; "normal" progression would give him an EQA in the .280s by the time he's 27. Everyone raves over his defense, and the limited statistics available in the minors suggest it is deserved, as he led Eastern League SS in two key categories: range factor and assists per game. In each, only Neifi Perez, in the Colorado system, was close to him. The Red Sox believe he'll force Valentin to second or third base in '97.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.