<< PECOTA Home Player Search     
');// -->

Joel Guzman
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Third Base
Bats R
Age 23
6' 6"
250 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
3B 6 Joel Guzman 5 33 .232 3 0 3 0 .284 .381 -0.4
1   2008 Total 5 33 .232 3 0 3 0 .284 .381 -0.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 JAX 2A 496 63 31 2 16 75 42 128 7 3 -1.8 .287 .351 .475 .180 .239 .294 .415 .244 7.9 92-SS -2 2.7
2006 LVG 3A 352 44 16 2 11 55 26 72 9 5 -1.6 .297 .353 .464 .058 .259 .312 .414 .251 -3.9 39-LF 1 1.1
2006 DUR 3A 92 7 5 0 4 9 4 23 0 0 0.0 .193 .228 .386 -.212 .182 .217 .352 .188 -6.2 12-3B -4 -0.2
2006 LAN MJ 23 2 0 0 0 3 3 2 0 0 0.0 .211 .348 .211 -.295 .211 .348 .211 .214 -1.2 0.0
2007 DUR 3A 445 44 17 2 16 64 23 117 9 2 2.0 .242 .281 .408 -.102 .227 .264 .388 .226 -8.2 73-3B 0 0.8
2007 TBA MJ 39 5 1 2 0 4 2 10 0 0 -0.5 .243 .282 .378 -.180 .243 .282 .378 .226 -0.6 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 11:06 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 519 61 25 2 20 72 40 128 10 4 -0.3 .259 .320 .448 -.009 .263 .325 .471 .275 16.3 122-3B -9 3.2
75o 509 55 24 2 18 67 37 128 9 3 -0.3 .250 .307 .424 -.069 .253 .312 .446 .264 8.6 120-3B -8 2.5
60o 496 48 22 2 15 61 32 128 8 3 -0.3 .237 .290 .393 -.146 .241 .295 .413 .248 -1.2 117-3B -8 1.7
50o 493 46 22 1 15 59 31 128 8 3 -0.3 .234 .286 .385 -.166 .237 .291 .405 .244 -3.6 116-3B -7 1.5
40o 486 43 21 1 13 56 29 127 8 3 -0.3 .228 .278 .370 -.203 .232 .283 .389 .236 -8.0 115-3B -7 1.1
25o 468 35 19 1 11 49 25 127 7 3 -0.2 .214 .258 .335 -.293 .217 .263 .352 .215 -18.1 111-3B -6 0.3
10o 452 29 17 1 8 42 21 126 6 2 -0.2 .202 .242 .305 -.370 .205 .245 .320 .195 -26.0 107-3B -5 -0.4
Weighted Mean 537 51 23 2 16 63 34 140 9 3 -0.3 .232 .284 .381 -.178 .236 .288 .400 .241 -6.4 126-3B -8 1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

34%

62%

22%

8%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 537 51 23 2 16 63 34 140 9 3 -0.3 .232 .284 .381 -.178 .236 .288 .400 .241 -6.4 126-3B -8 1.9
2009 (age 24) 527 52 25 2 16 64 33 135 7 3 -0.3 .242 .291 .400 -.133 .249 .301 .428 .249 0.4 124-3B -7 2.1
2010 (age 25) 526 54 24 2 17 68 36 126 8 3 -0.3 .245 .300 .408 -.105 .252 .310 .436 .256 3.3 124-3B -8 2.0
2011 (age 26) 421 39 18 1 14 54 29 105 6 3 -0.2 .242 .297 .406 -.115 .249 .307 .435 .253 1.6 100-3B -6 1.5
2012 (age 27) 459 48 21 1 17 62 33 111 8 2 -0.2 .248 .306 .425 -.071 .256 .316 .455 .263 4.4 109-3B -6 1.6
2013 (age 28) 488 49 24 2 15 62 33 114 7 3 -0.2 .249 .301 .413 -.093 .257 .311 .442 .257 2.6 115-3B -5 1.3
2014 (age 29) 403 38 18 1 13 53 26 98 7 2 -0.2 .245 .297 .408 -.110 .253 .306 .437 .254 1.5 96-3B -5 1.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .247 .304 .407
vs RHP .228 .276 .366
Split +.019 +.028 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.6 1.2 1.9 $2,075,000 -9.3 1.4
2009 1.0 1.1 2.1 $2,625,000 -1.6 3.2
2010 1.1 0.9 2.0 $2,875,000 1.2 4.3
2011 0.8 0.7 1.5 $2,000,000 0.1 4.4
2012 1.0 0.7 1.6 $2,975,000 3.6 5.5
2013 0.8 0.6 1.3 $2,150,000 1.2 5.6
2014 0.6 0.7 1.3 $2,100,000 0.4 3.1
Peak 10.5 $10,150,000 6.6 26.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .264 .244 .215 .241
2009 .264 .246 .228 .249
2010 .269 .250 .231 .256
2011 .271 .237 .225 .253
2012 .276 .263 .233 .263
2013 .274 .249 .231 .257
2014 .275 .252 .230 .254


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 8% 0% 34%
2009 10% 5% 43%
2010 28% 11% 51%
2011 45% 24% 34%
2012 49% 40% 40%
2013 54% 43% 37%
2014 61% 44% 36%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Guzman has bounced all over the field since the Dodgers decided he had grown too large to play short, and--coincidentally or not--his bat atrophied along the way. Traded to the Rays for Julio Lugo (a deal that did little for the Dodgers in the short term and will perhaps accomplish even less for the Rays in the long run), Guzman has gone from top prospect to something of an afterthought. As a first baseman, his bat is the blandest flavor of stale vanilla. Fortunately for him, the team has an opening at the position and a history of not being discriminating about whom they put there.

2006

Number seven on our Top Prospect list in 2005, Guzman is the crown jewel of the Dodger system, a man-child with more raw power than Iggy and the Stooges circa 1973. While his numbers show a somewhat alarming drop in ISO in 2005, his translations are essentially in line with what he did in 2004. Guzman`s huge physique makes a move away from shortstop likely, and though he got a taste of third base at Jacksonville before LaRoche arrived, right field is a potential home thanks to his arm strength. Comparisons to Miguel Cabrera abound, but Cabrera had a solid rookie year and postseason heroics under his belt at age 20 after spending less than half the time in Double-A that Guzman has already put in. Guzman has significant star potential, but it will happen at a slower pace.

2005

Guzman's a solid prospect who looks a lot like Alfonso Soriano. He's got the ability to hit pretty much any pitch thrown near the plate with authority. He also has the ability to miss any pitch thrown over the plate with even greater authority. It's not clear he's going to be able to play an acceptable defensive shortstop at the big league level, but he'll certainly swing hard once he gets there. Good power, plate discipline more of a theoretical concept in his worldview than anything substantive. He might get a September cup of coffee this season, but 2006 is probably his first chance at significant playing time.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.