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Cole Hamels
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 24
6' 3"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Starter-1 Cole Hamels 195 29 3.39 1.19 175 55 23 180 13 7 0 47.9

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 CLR 1C 2 0 0 3 3 16.0 7 7 18 0 40% .212 6 0.88 2.25 3.62 4.40 4.4 6.3 6.3 0.6 1.9 0.5
2005 REA 2A 2 0 0 3 3 19.0 10 12 19 2 42% .190 -6 1.16 2.37 4.66 4.24 5.8 7.9 5.8 1.6 2.6 0.6
2006 LWD 1B 0 0 0 1 1 5.1 3 2 3 1 50% .154 -53 0.98 1.76 10.89 6.75 9.0 6.8 2.2 4.5 -0.5 0.0
2006 CLR 1C 1 1 0 4 4 20.0 16 9 29 0 53% .327 15 1.25 1.80 4.91 5.30 9.2 5.8 8.2 0.5 0.6 0.4
2006 SWB 3A 2 0 0 3 3 23.0 10 1 36 0 39% .244 54 0.48 0.39 2.54 1.74 6.1 0.9 10.0 0.0 8.9 1.2
2006 PHI MJ 9 8 0 23 23 132.3 117 48 145 19 42% .298 31 1.25 4.08 3.57 3.81 7.4 2.7 8.8 1.1 23.1 3.4 4.9
2007 PHI MJ 15 5 0 28 28 183.3 163 43 177 25 44% .282 32 1.12 3.39 3.37 3.14 7.5 1.8 8.1 1.1 48.8 5.2 7.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:38 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 18 5 0 31 31 221.3 176 54 210 22 43% .259 33 1.04 2.29 2.70 2.31 6.9 2.0 7.7 0.9 85.9 10.2 10.3
75o 15 6 0 29 29 199.0 171 54 186 22 44% .273 29 1.13 2.98 3.23 3.02 7.5 2.2 7.5 1.0 60.9 7.6 7.8
60o 13 7 0 28 28 187.0 168 53 173 22 44% .280 27 1.18 3.36 3.53 3.41 7.8 2.3 7.4 1.0 48.9 6.3 6.6
50o 13 7 0 28 28 183.3 167 53 169 22 44% .282 27 1.20 3.47 3.62 3.52 7.9 2.4 7.4 1.0 45.6 5.9 6.3
40o 12 7 0 28 28 178.7 165 53 164 22 44% .285 26 1.22 3.62 3.74 3.68 8.0 2.4 7.4 1.1 41.2 5.5 5.8
25o 11 8 0 27 27 167.7 161 52 153 22 44% .292 24 1.27 3.98 4.03 4.05 8.3 2.5 7.3 1.1 31.4 4.4 4.8
10o 9 8 0 24 24 147.3 151 49 132 21 45% .304 21 1.36 4.67 4.57 4.75 8.9 2.8 7.2 1.3 15.7 2.7 3.1
Weighted Mean 14 7 0 29 29 190.7 172 55 176 23 44% .281 27 1.19 3.39 3.56 3.44 7.9 2.4 7.4 1.0 46.9 6.3 6.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

37%

22%

9%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 24) 14 7 0 29 29 190.7 172 55 176 23 44% .281 27 1.19 3.39 3.56 3.44 7.9 2.4 7.4 1.0 46.9 6.3 6.2
2009 (age 25) 13 8 0 30 30 195.3 183 54 177 25 44% .286 24 1.21 3.70 3.81 3.75 8.2 2.3 7.3 1.1 37.0 5.8 5.1
2010 (age 26) 13 7 0 29 29 189.0 175 49 174 23 43% .286 26 1.19 3.51 3.62 3.56 8.1 2.1 7.4 1.1 38.7 6.0 5.2
2011 (age 27) 13 7 0 29 29 188.3 173 47 171 24 45% .282 26 1.17 3.40 3.56 3.45 8.0 2.0 7.3 1.1 38.6 6.2 5.1
2012 (age 28) 14 8 0 31 31 203.3 189 51 180 26 45% .283 24 1.18 3.46 3.65 3.51 8.1 2.1 7.1 1.1 37.1 6.6 4.9
2013 (age 29) 12 9 2 49 23 178.3 171 47 159 23 46% .291 17 1.22 3.65 3.82 3.70 8.4 2.2 7.2 1.1 30.6 5.0 4.4
2014 (age 30) 6 5 1 27 12 91.0 86 22 81 12 45% .287 17 1.18 3.59 3.72 3.64 8.3 2.0 7.2 1.1 27.6 2.6 3.9

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .216 .285 .354
vs RHB .234 .300 .395
Split -.017 -.015 -.041
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 6.2 $17,275,000 45.3 60.1
2009 5.1 $14,275,000 35.4 45.2
2010 5.2 $16,000,000 37.4 47.5
2011 5.1 $17,000,000 37.4 46.5
2012 4.9 $17,475,000 35.8 43.2
2013 4.4 $15,700,000 29.4 34.1
2014 3.9 $14,775,000 26.5 30.4
Peak 30.9 $79,250,000 191.3 276.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.02 3.52 4.05 3.44
2009 3.19 3.79 4.60 3.75
2010 2.93 3.63 4.45 3.56
2011 2.92 3.65 4.36 3.45
2012 3.11 3.68 4.55 3.51
2013 3.18 3.70 4.67 3.70
2014 3.07 3.85 5.09 3.64


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 9% 0% 19%
2009 16% 2% 9%
2010 24% 7% 9%
2011 31% 11% 14%
2012 30% 11% 10%
2013 36% 23% 7%
2014 51% 27% 5%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

48

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Jon Matlack 1974 55 11 Angel Miranda 1994 37
2 Dennis Bennett 1964 51 12 Kevin Appier 1992 35
3 Greg Swindell 1989 47 13 Billy Hoeft 1956 34
4 Johnny Antonelli 1954 42 14 Noah Lowry 2005 33
5 Jake Peavy 2005 42 15 Dean Stone 1955 33
6 Josh Beckett 2004 41 16 Curt Simmons 1953 32
7 Barry Zito 2002 40 17 Vida Blue 1974 31
8 Jim Merritt 1968 39 18 Ray Crone 1956 31
9 Tom Seaver 1969 39 19 Britt Burns 1983 31
10 Mickey Lolich 1965 38 20 Chan Ho Park 1998 31

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Faberge eggs, china dolls, ice sculptures, Cole Hamels. If this were that pyramid gameshow, the category would be, `beautiful things that are fragile.` Hamels pitched a full season last year for the first time ever, starting 31 games. No young pitcher is totally in the clear, but most of Hamels`s injuries haven`t been from pitching: he broke his arm in high school playing football, and broke his hand defending a teammate in a fight prior to 2005. The bulging disk in his back is more worrisome, but he was able to work around it all year. Missing out on the minor league innings may be a developmental negative and a health positive; like Chris Capuano, Hamels matured physically with less wear and tear on his arm. PECOTA`s comparables are cold. Righetti`s career as a starter ended after 76 starts due to a move to the bullpen; Bennett had a short and mostly ineffective career; Blue was terrific early but burned out quickly due to overuse and drug abuse; Wilson pitched two no-hitters for the Astros but killed himself on the eve of his 30th birthday. We imagine the Phillies would be more than happy if Hamels were to equal Blue`s three 20-win seasons by age 25. Hamels is 23 now, so he`d better get started.

2006

The talented Mr. Hamels seems to be something of a hardball Jekyll and Hyde case. On the field, his poise and his three plus pitches draw universal raves. Off the field, the 22-year-old seems to be an accident that is not only waiting to happen but is compelled to happen by some invisible, malevolent force. After missing most of 2004 with elbow problems, he strained his back in the Fall Instructional League. Then he broke a metacarpal bone in his hand in a bar fight in February, making him hors de combat until June. It was later reported that Hamels instigated the brawl, and was not provoked, as he had spun the story. This brought up the old rumors that his famous broken arm in high school did not occur in a pickup football game, but was really the result of a fight. He was shut down in midseason after just six appearances in Clearwater and Reading. All of this has given the Phillies a migraine, but they`re gritting their teeth and preparing to send Hamels to Double-A to start 2006. The hope is that he will advance quickly to Triple-A and perhaps even the big tent before the end of the season.

2005

Asking anyone who might know better for straight information about Cole Hamels' left elbow is about as useful as asking Karen Hughes for her take on W.'s performance in the Presidential Debates, so let's just report the facts as we know them:

  • Cole Hamels' left elbow was born in San Diego, California Dec. 27, 1983.
  • While playing in a pickup football game during his sophomore year of high school, Hamels slammed into a parked pickup while attempting to catch a pass. The arm was moderately sore, but the extent of the injury was unclear, and Hamels continued pitching with it. Three weeks later, his arm snapped while he was throwing a fastball, and Hamels found that he had broken his left humerus bone. He skipped his junior season, but pitched exceptionally well in his senior year, prompting the Phillies to take him in the first round of the 2002 draft.
  • The Phillies cancelled plans for Hamels to try out for the US Olympic team in October 2003 after he suffered back spasms during his instructional league stint. There were no reported complications with his arm.
  • Hamels appeared in three games during spring training this year, and was highly impressive, striking out nine batters in seven innings. Hamels was optioned to minor league camp, as was expected, on March 19.
  • On April 7, the Phillies announced that Hamels had undergone an MRI on his elbow and was going to miss the first month of the minor league season. The announcement referred to the injury as "mild soreness" and did not disclose precisely what the MRI had found, but its results were negative. The injury was later reported to be tendonitis.
  • Hamels was assigned to Clearwater from extended spring training May 17. He made four starts between May 20 and June 4 and was very effective, striking out 24 batters and compiling a 1.13 ERA.
  • Hamels missed his next turn in the rotation for Clearwater with what was described as an inflamed left elbow. According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the injury was separate and distinct from his tendonitis. He was initially shut down for seven to 10 days and later was placed on the minor league DL. Reports in July said that Hamels was not feeling any discomfort, but put his timetable several weeks away. He did not return to action before Clearwater's season ended Sept. 2.
  • Hamels was assigned to the Florida Instructional League in October, and was reportedly throwing well.


There—that's what we know. All of that stuff is available publicly, though it takes a bit of digging to get it. We're not going to try and spin it or interpret it. Obviously health is the key issue here, and obviously people have a disposition toward panic when it comes to valuable baseball players, and especially prized pitching prospects. We're the sorts of people who react to fear by attempting to collect as much information about a situation as possible, and in the absence of complete information, it's at least worthwhile to attempt to prevent misinformation, even if it takes half a page to do it.


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