Ryan Hanigan

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Reds Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 5 Ryan Hanigan 45 108 .270 11 1 8 0 .353 .340 1.3

1 2009 Total 45 108 .270 11 1 8 0 .353 .340 1.3

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:29 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	351	45	16	1	7	35	37	49	1	1	-0.9	.277	.363	.408	-.002	.276	.360	.409	.270	13.8	84-C 3	3.0
75^o	327	34	14	1	5	30	33	50	1	1	-0.8	.249	.333	.356	-.140	.248	.331	.357	.243	2.3	79-C 3	1.8
60^o	315	29	12	1	4	28	31	50	1	1	-0.8	.236	.320	.333	-.203	.236	.317	.333	.230	-2.4	76-C 3	1.3
50^o	305	26	11	0	4	26	29	50	1	1	-0.7	.226	.309	.314	-.254	.225	.306	.314	.219	-5.9	74-C 3	0.9
40^o	299	24	11	0	3	25	28	50	1	1	-0.7	.220	.302	.303	-.283	.219	.300	.303	.213	-7.8	73-C 2	0.7
25^o	284	20	10	0	2	22	26	50	0	1	-0.6	.206	.287	.277	-.352	.205	.285	.278	.196	-12.0	70-C 2	0.2
10^o	265	16	8	0	2	19	24	49	0	0	-0.6	.190	.269	.247	-.432	.189	.267	.248	.174	-16.1	65-C 2	-0.3
Weighted Mean	310	28	12	0	4	26	30	50	1	1	-0.7	.231	.314	.323	-.211	.230	.312	.323	.223	-2.3	75-C 3	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
23%	39%	38%	31%	1.17

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 28)	310	28	12	0	4	26	30	50	1	1	-0.7	.231	.314	.323	-.211	.230	.312	.323	.223	-2.3	75-C 3	1.2
2010 (age 29)	307	28	12	1	4	26	27	47	1	0	-0.6	.236	.315	.329	-.233	.232	.308	.325	.226	-2.5	75-C 3	1.0
2011 (age 30)	251	20	10	0	3	21	24	41	0	0	-0.4	.231	.312	.320	-.252	.227	.306	.316	.221	-2.8	62-C 2	0.7
2012 (age 31)	239	19	8	0	3	21	23	37	0	0	-0.3	.233	.318	.321	-.240	.228	.311	.317	.225	-1.5	59-C 3	0.6
2013 (age 32)	306	27	10	0	3	26	30	46	0	0	-0.2	.235	.321	.314	-.242	.231	.314	.310	.224	-1.5	74-C 3	0.5
2014 (age 33)	266	22	9	0	3	24	26	40	0	0	-0.2	.237	.320	.323	-.230	.233	.313	.319	.227	-0.9	65-C 2	0.4
2015 (age 34)	246	21	9	0	4	23	20	35	0	0	-0.1	.249	.319	.346	-.196	.244	.312	.342	.233	0.0	61-C 2	0.3

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.247	.331	.351
vs RHP	.226	.306	.310
Split	+.021	+.025	+.041
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-3.5	3.0	1.2	$1,325,000	-1.0	4.0
2010	-2.8	3.0	1.0	$1,300,000	-1.0	2.6
2011	-3.3	2.0	0.7	$1,025,000	-1.8	1.9
2012	-2.3	3.0	0.6	$1,100,000	-0.4	2.2
2013	-3.2	3.0	0.5	$1,125,000	-0.4	0.8
2014	-2.0	2.0	0.4	$1,125,000	-0.2	1.6
2015	-0.5	2.0	0.3	$1,100,000	0.5	1.5
Peak			4.5	$3,700,000	0.0	13.1

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.243	.219	.196	.223
2010	.249	.226	.195	.226
2011	.242	.217	.194	.221
2012	.241	.223	.194	.225
2013	.244	.229	.196	.224
2014	.260	.204	.182	.227
2015	.250	.220	.194	.233

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	31%	0%	23%
2010	48%	17%	17%
2011	62%	34%	14%
2012	75%	48%	12%
2013	72%	58%	11%
2014	81%	65%	12%
2015	86%	74%	9%

60

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Greg Olson	1989	63		11	Ken Rudolph	1975	46
2	Bud Bulling	1981	62		12	Brad Ausmus	1998	44
3	Dutch Dotterer	1960	60		13	Bobby Miscik	1987	43
4	Rick Sweet	1981	56		14	Bruce Benedict	1984	43
5	Dave Skaggs	1980	52		15	Tim Marx	1997	42
6	Michel Hernandez	2007	52		16	Joe Astroth	1951	41
7	Paul Lo_Duca	2001	51		17	Wes Timmons	2008	41
8	Craig Colbert	1993	48		18	Dick Bertell	1964	40
9	Gary Bennett	2001	48		19	Matt Tupman	2008	40
10	Scooter Tucker	1995	47		20	John Ramos	1994	40

Player Comments

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2008

Hanigan has a good batting eye and fine defensive skills (he was near the top of his leagues in throwing out runners), but at 27 he's fated to be a backup. Unfortunately for him, the Reds have Dave Ross and Javier Valentin under contract for 2008, so advancement will require a trade or an injury.

2006

Hanigan improved offensively in his first action in Double-A last year, making himself into a marginal prospect. That`s faint praise considering that the Reds` stockpile of catching prospects is something like the nuclear arsenal of Belarus--impressive on paper but functionally unusable.

Pos	Order	Name	PT%	PA	AVG	R	HR	RBI	SB	OBP	SLG	VORP
C	5	Ryan Hanigan	45	108	.270	11	1	8	0	.353	.340	1.3
1		2009 Total	45	108	.270	11	1	8	0	.353	.340	1.3

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	CHT	AA	150	17	2	0	0	14	19	23	0	0	0.6	.246	.347	.262	-.462	.191	.273	.214	.172	-15.0	23-C 1	-0.9
2006	LOU	AAA	19	2	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	0.3	.154	.421	.154	-.232	.154	.421	.154	.252	-0.6	4-C 0	0.0
2007	CHT	AA	247	30	14	1	3	27	41	30	0	2	0.0	.299	.420	.426	-.270	.209	.312	.299	.222	-10.5	55-C -2	-0.2
2007	LOU	AAA	150	16	5	0	1	9	14	15	0	0	-0.5	.252	.333	.315	-.363	.212	.286	.265	.199	-9.9	31-C 8	0.5
2007	CIN	MLB	11	3	1	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0.7	.300	.364	.400	.012	.300	.364	.400	.269	0.5		0.0
2008	LOU	AAA	311	37	14	0	4	35	25	39	1	0	-2.7	.324	.392	.419	-.107	.271	.335	.365	.250	1.0	71-C 5	1.7
2008	CIN	MLB	98	9	2	0	2	9	10	9	0	0	0.3	.271	.367	.365	-.049	.271	.367	.365	.263	2.8	26-C 2	0.7

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats