Craig Hansen

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:43 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	5	3	1	35	8	73.3	67	32	55	4	55%	.289	7	1.35	3.20	3.48	3.22	7.8	3.6	6.1	0.5	20.9	2.3	2.7
75^o	4	4	1	33	7	66.3	66	34	49	4	55%	.306	3	1.50	4.19	4.12	4.20	8.5	4.1	6.2	0.5	10.8	1.3	1.7
60^o	4	4	1	33	7	63.7	66	34	48	4	55%	.312	1	1.56	4.56	4.36	4.57	8.7	4.4	6.2	0.6	7.5	1.0	1.4
50^o	3	4	1	31	7	59.3	64	34	44	4	55%	.323	-2	1.66	5.24	4.81	5.25	9.2	4.7	6.2	0.6	2.0	0.4	0.8
40^o	3	4	0	31	7	57.7	64	34	43	4	55%	.328	-3	1.70	5.49	4.97	5.51	9.4	4.9	6.2	0.6	0.1	0.2	0.6
25^o	3	4	0	29	6	53.7	62	34	40	4	55%	.338	-6	1.79	6.15	5.40	6.16	9.8	5.3	6.2	0.7	-4.2	-0.2	0.1
10^o	2	3	0	26	5	45.0	58	33	34	4	55%	.360	-12	2.01	7.64	6.34	7.66	10.8	6.1	6.2	0.8	-11.9	-0.9	-0.7
Weighted Mean	3	3	1	31	6	59.3	62	32	44	4	55%	.315	0	1.58	4.75	4.46	4.77	8.8	4.4	6.2	0.6	5.4	0.8	1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
40%	70%	15%	19%	0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	3	3	1	31	6	59.3	62	32	44	4	55%	.315	0	1.58	4.75	4.46	4.77	8.8	4.4	6.2	0.6	5.4	0.8	1.2
2009 (age 25)	4	4	1	29	7	61.7	65	32	48	3	55%	.321	2	1.57	4.63	4.29	4.67	8.8	4.3	6.4	0.5	5.5	0.9	1.1
2010 (age 26)	3	3	1	29	6	56.0	58	28	41	3	53%	.315	1	1.55	4.41	4.21	4.43	8.8	4.2	6.1	0.5	6.8	0.9	1.2
2011 (age 27)	4	4	1	34	7	65.3	71	31	50	4	55%	.326	2	1.55	4.74	4.37	4.76	9.2	3.8	6.3	0.5	4.0	0.8	0.9
2012 (age 28)	4	4	1	34	7	63.0	65	31	50	4	56%	.316	3	1.52	4.31	4.16	4.33	8.7	4.1	6.6	0.5	7.1	1.1	1.2
2013 (age 29)	3	3	1	31	6	57.0	59	29	43	4	56%	.313	0	1.54	4.35	4.25	4.36	8.7	4.2	6.2	0.6	5.6	1.0	1.0
2014 (age 30)	1	1	0	14	3	25.3	27	14	19	2	55%	.321	-1	1.60	4.73	4.48	4.75	9.1	4.4	6.2	0.6	2.7	0.3	0.6

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.282	.400	.414
vs RHB	.256	.358	.350
Split	+.026	+.042	+.064
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.2	$2,050,000	5.6	5.9
2009	1.1	$2,125,000	5.6	7.4
2010	1.2	$2,625,000	6.9	7.3
2011	0.9	$1,850,000	4.1	4.9
2012	1.2	$3,050,000	7.2	6.7
2013	1.0	$2,525,000	5.6	4.3
2014	0.6	$1,525,000	2.8	3.4
Peak	6.6	$9,775,000	29.5	36.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.20	5.25	6.16	4.77
2009	3.85	5.04	6.32	4.67
2010	3.72	4.85	5.96	4.43
2011	3.91	4.61	7.39	4.76
2012	3.59	4.52	6.05	4.33
2013	3.87	4.56	5.39	4.36
2014	3.61	5.18	7.33	4.75

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	19%	0%	40%
2009	36%	15%	37%
2010	37%	23%	34%
2011	48%	36%	32%
2012	47%	37%	31%
2013	50%	46%	27%
2014	68%	51%	20%

40

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Ryan Wagner	2007	43		11	Jeremy Blevins	2002	28
2	Ron Willis	1968	41		12	Gary Majewski	2004	27
3	Dave Wainhouse	1992	38		13	Gary Ross	1972	27
4	Ed Farmer	1974	37		14	Wes Littleton	2007	27
5	Tommie Sisk	1966	32		15	T.J. Tucker	2003	27
6	Blaine Boyer	2006	32		16	Jim Hannan	1964	27
7	Pete Vuckovich	1977	31		17	Rick Camp	1978	27
8	Randy Moffitt	1973	30		18	David Aardsma	2006	26
9	Cuddles Marshall	1949	30		19	Jay Powell	1996	24
10	Duane Ward	1989	28		20	Jeremy Ward	2002	24

Player Comments

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2007

A 2005 first-rounder out of St. John`s, this college closer reached the majors quickly thanks to Boston`s Foulked-up bullpen situation. Last year, the team made it clear he`ll have to earn the closer job, testing Hansen in starting and non-closing relief situations to acclimate him to working out of jams, pitching out of a windup, and developing a changeup to augment his high-90s fastball and wicked slider. He struggled with mechanics and command, and those familiar with his stuff swore his slider wasn`t the same. Hit hard, he allowed 19 earned runs in his last 18 innings. There`s no shame in a pitcher of his vintage not being ready; the Sox brass needs to stay the course with his development rather then plugging him in every time the staff springs a leak.

2006

One of the more heralded players in the 2005 draft, the Red Sox nabbed Hansen with the 28th pick after he fell due to signability concerns (read: Scott Boras). Boston gave him the major league contract he demanded, then called the 6-foot-5-inch righty up after 12 scoreless appearances in the minors. Arm fatigue caused the team to use him cautiously and eventually shut him down. He has a fastball that tops out in the high 90s and throws a sinking fastball or a hard slider as his second pitch (depending on what is working). Hansen will have every opportunity to claim a regular bullpen role in the spring.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	PME	2A	0	0	1	8	0	9.7	9	1	10	0	56%	.333	19	1.03	0.00	0.32	0.00	10.4	2.1	6.2	0.0	5.4		0.5
2005	BOS	MJ	0	0	0	4	0	3.0	6	1	3	1	50%	.500	-20	2.33	6.00	18.97	9.00	18.0	3.0	9.0	3.0	-0.1	-0.3	0.0
2006	PME	2A	1	0	0	5	0	11.0	4	4	12	0	54%	.154	7	0.73	0.82	2.96	1.64	4.1	4.1	5.7	0.0	4.8		0.6
2006	PAW	3A	1	2	0	14	4	36.2	31	19	26	0	52%	.298	-8	1.38	2.73	4.27	4.36	8.5	5.7	4.9	0.3	4.5		0.9
2006	BOS	MJ	2	2	0	38	0	38.0	46	15	30	5	46%	.353	-4	1.61	6.63	5.30	6.75	9.8	3.3	6.5	0.9	-6.0	-0.7	0.2
2007	PAW	3A	3	1	3	40	0	51.3	58	32	48	2	66%	.348	-13	1.75	3.86	6.28	5.94	11.0	5.9	5.9	0.5	-1.9		0.6

Historical Stats