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Dan Haren
Arizona Diamondbacks [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 27
6' 5"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Diamondbacks Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Starter-2 Dan Haren 210 31 3.84 1.25 207 55 25 181 13 9 0 43.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 OAK MJ 14 12 0 34 34 217.0 212 53 163 26 47% .290 19 1.22 3.73 4.51 4.41 9.3 2.2 6.8 1.0 39.5 5.2 6.7
2006 OAK MJ 14 13 0 34 34 223.0 224 45 176 31 45% .292 20 1.21 4.12 3.89 4.10 8.4 1.7 6.6 1.1 41.4 5.3 7.7
2007 OAK MJ 15 9 0 34 34 222.7 214 55 192 24 45% .292 24 1.21 3.07 3.66 3.35 8.3 1.9 7.0 1.0 56.4 6.3 8.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:47 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 18 6 0 32 32 228.7 200 48 213 21 47% .282 33 1.09 2.65 2.86 2.57 7.4 1.7 7.8 0.8 82.2 9.9 10.0
75o 15 8 0 31 31 207.7 194 50 186 23 47% .290 29 1.17 3.28 3.35 3.19 7.9 1.9 7.5 0.9 59.9 7.5 7.8
60o 13 8 0 30 30 196.3 190 50 172 23 47% .294 26 1.22 3.65 3.64 3.55 8.2 2.0 7.3 1.0 48.6 6.3 6.7
50o 12 9 0 29 29 185.3 185 50 159 24 46% .298 24 1.27 4.00 3.91 3.89 8.5 2.2 7.1 1.1 38.6 5.3 5.6
40o 12 9 0 28 28 180.7 183 50 153 24 46% .300 23 1.29 4.16 4.03 4.04 8.6 2.2 7.1 1.1 34.5 4.8 5.2
25o 10 9 0 27 27 163.7 175 49 133 24 46% .306 18 1.37 4.74 4.49 4.60 9.1 2.4 6.8 1.2 20.7 3.3 3.7
10o 8 9 0 25 25 151.7 168 48 120 24 46% .310 16 1.42 5.16 4.82 5.00 9.4 2.5 6.6 1.3 12.1 2.4 2.8
Weighted Mean 13 9 0 31 31 201.3 198 53 174 25 47% .296 25 1.25 3.84 3.78 3.74 8.4 2.1 7.2 1.0 42.0 6.1 5.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

20%

49%

17%

13%

1.14

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 27) 13 9 0 31 31 201.3 198 53 174 25 47% .296 25 1.25 3.84 3.78 3.74 8.4 2.1 7.2 1.0 42.0 6.1 5.7
2009 (age 28) 13 9 0 31 31 203.7 202 49 174 25 48% .297 23 1.23 3.86 3.76 3.76 8.4 1.9 7.1 1.0 39.0 6.1 5.3
2010 (age 29) 13 9 0 30 30 195.7 195 47 164 24 47% .296 22 1.24 3.90 3.79 3.80 8.5 1.9 7.0 1.0 36.1 5.7 5.0
2011 (age 30) 12 9 0 30 30 193.0 197 49 155 26 47% .297 20 1.28 4.10 4.01 3.98 8.7 2.1 6.7 1.1 29.3 5.3 4.2
2012 (age 31) 12 9 0 29 29 188.0 190 48 149 24 48% .295 19 1.27 3.98 3.92 3.88 8.6 2.0 6.6 1.1 28.4 5.4 4.0
2013 (age 32) 8 7 1 34 16 122.7 129 31 91 16 47% .297 9 1.30 4.18 4.15 4.05 8.9 2.0 6.2 1.1 20.5 2.9 3.1
2014 (age 33) 4 4 0 19 8 63.7 66 16 47 9 47% .292 8 1.29 4.17 4.17 4.04 8.9 2.0 6.2 1.2 16.3 1.5 2.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .239 .317 .406
vs RHB .251 .307 .404
Split -.011 +.011 +.002
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 5.7 $15,400,000 39.8 50.5
2009 5.3 $15,150,000 37.0 47.6
2010 5.0 $14,875,000 34.1 40.8
2011 4.2 $12,650,000 27.5 29.9
2012 4.0 $12,950,000 26.8 29.2
2013 3.1 $9,775,000 19.2 20.2
2014 2.4 $7,925,000 15.2 15.7
Peak 27.3 $66,475,000 165.2 218.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.19 3.89 4.60 3.74
2009 3.32 3.82 4.33 3.76
2010 3.33 3.69 4.42 3.80
2011 3.63 4.17 4.93 3.98
2012 3.26 3.96 4.88 3.88
2013 3.49 4.37 5.24 4.05
2014 3.55 4.13 5.15 4.04


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 13% 0% 20%
2009 16% 6% 17%
2010 23% 7% 12%
2011 34% 13% 11%
2012 36% 17% 10%
2013 47% 25% 10%
2014 63% 32% 7%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

57

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Curt Schilling 1994 66 11 Dennis Leonard 1979 47
2 Pete Vuckovich 1980 65 12 Bill Singer 1972 46
3 Freddy Garcia 2003 60 13 Tom Bradley 1974 44
4 Fergie Jenkins 1970 58 14 Andy Benes 1995 44
5 John Lackey 2006 52 15 Ben McDonald 1995 43
6 Rick Reuschel 1977 49 16 Erik Hanson 1993 42
7 Ed Halicki 1978 48 17 Jon Lieber 1998 42
8 Jack McDowell 1993 48 18 Jon Matlack 1977 41
9 Frank Sullivan 1957 48 19 Ralph Terry 1963 41
10 Bob Rush 1953 47 20 Chris Bosio 1991 40

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

If not for J.J. Hardy, Dan Haren would follow Rich Harden in an alphabetical register of 2006 major leaguers, and that`s probably how most fans think of them: Harden, then Haren. But while Harden has totaled 175 innings over the last two seasons, Haren has established himself as one of the more durable starters in the majors, making 34 starts in both seasons. He`s otherwise consistent, too, with 14 wins in each season and virtually identical numbers down the line. Haren has just one weakness: Home runs. Last season only six American League pitchers gave up more dingers than Haren. If he can solve that problem--or get just a few extra dollops of luck--fans will figure out that Haren comes before Harden in the only way that matters.

2005

He's suffered some fits and starts during his call-ups, but this is a pitcher who deserves an extended look in the major league rotation. Haren's a "four-pitch guy" without a truly dominant offering, which means it's possible he might not make the transition to the majors. But, by golly, let him prove it first. You don't post a career 5.37 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minors by accident. For what it's worth, he looked much better during his 2004 major league look-see than he did in '03. Now that he's in Oakland, Haren will have every opportunity to stick in the rotation on a long-term basis. Don't be shocked if he roughly approximates the quality of Mark Mulder v.2004.


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