Sean Henn

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 9:53 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	4	2	2	56	2	64.0	55	29	47	5	44%	.267	1	1.32	3.21	3.46	3.22	7.5	3.7	6.0	0.7	17.5	1.6	2.3
75^o	3	2	2	53	2	58.7	55	28	43	6	44%	.279	-3	1.41	3.94	4.00	3.96	8.1	3.9	5.9	0.9	10.8	1.0	1.6
60^o	3	3	1	49	1	53.7	54	27	38	6	44%	.291	-7	1.51	4.73	4.59	4.74	8.7	4.1	5.8	1.0	4.6	0.4	1.0
50^o	3	3	1	46	1	50.3	53	26	35	6	44%	.299	-9	1.57	5.24	4.97	5.25	9.2	4.2	5.7	1.1	1.2	0.1	0.6
40^o	2	3	1	44	1	48.0	53	25	33	6	44%	.305	-11	1.62	5.65	5.27	5.65	9.5	4.2	5.7	1.2	-1.2	-0.1	0.4
25^o	2	2	0	41	0	40.3	49	22	27	7	44%	.323	-18	1.77	6.95	6.25	6.93	10.6	4.5	5.5	1.5	-7.4	-0.6	-0.3
10^o	1	2	0	26	0	26.0	38	16	16	6	43%	.357	-31	2.09	9.68	8.30	9.58	12.8	5.1	5.1	2.0	-13.3	-1.1	-0.9
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	39	1	43.0	43	21	31	5	44%	.291	-6	1.50	4.71	4.55	4.72	8.7	4.1	5.8	1.0	4.2	0.3	0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
50%	67%	16%	38%	1.07

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 27)	2	2	1	39	1	43.0	43	21	31	5	44%	.291	-6	1.50	4.71	4.55	4.72	8.7	4.1	5.8	1.0	4.2	0.3	0.9
2009 (age 28)	3	2	1	51	0	50.0	52	25	37	6	44%	.301	-7	1.53	4.86	4.78	4.85	9.0	4.0	6.0	1.0	2.6	0.3	0.7
2010 (age 29)	3	2	2	60	0	58.3	58	31	45	6	42%	.300	-5	1.53	4.34	4.57	4.31	8.7	4.3	6.3	0.8	4.3	0.6	0.7
2011 (age 30)	3	2	2	53	0	51.0	50	24	42	5	45%	.300	0	1.44	4.26	4.24	4.26	8.5	3.8	6.7	0.9	4.3	0.6	0.7
2012 (age 31)	3	2	2	52	0	50.7	49	23	40	5	44%	.290	-2	1.41	4.13	4.11	4.14	8.3	3.7	6.4	0.9	4.3	0.7	0.7
2013 (age 32)	2	2	1	45	0	44.3	45	20	35	4	45%	.302	-2	1.46	4.37	4.41	4.37	8.8	3.6	6.4	0.9	2.9	0.5	0.5
2014 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.242	.341	.374
vs RHB	.260	.368	.414
Split	-.017	-.027	-.040
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.9	$1,700,000	4.8	4.4
2009	0.7	$1,275,000	3.1	2.9
2010	0.7	$1,675,000	4.6	3.4
2011	0.7	$1,775,000	4.6	3.8
2012	0.7	$1,850,000	4.6	3.9
2013	0.5	$1,425,000	3.1	1.7
2014	0.5	$1,650,000	3.6	2.6
Peak	4.3	$6,100,000	21.7	20.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.96	5.25	6.93	4.72
2009	4.23	5.01	6.66	4.85
2010	3.53	4.18	6.36	4.31
2011	3.76	4.77	6.03	4.26
2012	3.61	4.38	5.99	4.14
2013	3.68	4.75	6.42	4.37
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	38%	0%	50%
2009	52%	29%	39%
2010	60%	44%	42%
2011	66%	48%	40%
2012	70%	57%	30%
2013	74%	64%	26%
2014	77%	71%	22%

52

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Drew Hall	1990	52		11	Renie Martin	1982	38
2	Jack O'Connor	1985	48		12	Dick Woodson	1972	37
3	Hank Aguirre	1958	45		13	Jason Christiansen	1996	37
4	Francisco Cordero	2002	44		14	Pete Filson	1985	36
5	Pedro Martinez	1996	43		15	Ron Willis	1970	36
6	Bob MacDonald	1992	42		16	Angel Miranda	1997	35
7	Daryl Patterson	1971	40		17	Joey Eischen	1997	35
8	Kenny Rogers	1992	40		18	Jerry Johnson	1971	35
9	Joe Beimel	2004	39		19	Frank Baumann	1960	34
10	Paul Mirabella	1981	38		20	Gene Walter	1988	34

Player Comments

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2007

Sean Henn never rebounded from 2001 Tommy John surgery, or maybe he did but he`s just not very good. The Yankees gave Henn a then-record $1.7 million as a draft-and-follow; the new labor agreement eliminates the DFE, so they won`t be making that mistake again.

2006

`He`s not ready to be here,` a visibly annoyed Joe Torre said of Henn after his second emergency start. Henn was visibly nervous, but the Yankees` miserable defense exacerbated his anxiety in two of his three starts. Now well past TJ surgery, Henn posted some decent numbers between Trenton and Columbus, but in an organization already biased against the young, he will have to labor twice as hard to overcome Torre`s damning first impression.

2005

A real disappointment. Henn had a lively arm when he signed, causing radar guns to go "tilt." Then came the injuries, Tommy John surgery and shoulder problems that erased some of that velocity and cost Henn all of 2002. He was finally able to put in a full season and while his fastball showed some rebound, the overall numbers were mediocre. He's heading for the bullpen like a runaway train.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	TRN	2A	2	1	0	4	4	25.3	16	9	21	1	55%	.238	6	0.99	0.71	3.57	1.96	6.3	4.3	4.7	0.8	9.3		1.4
2005	COH	3A	5	5	0	16	16	86.3	79	27	64	5	48%	.306	3	1.23	3.23	4.16	4.44	8.4	3.4	4.8	0.7	10.4		2.3
2005	NYA	MJ	0	3	0	3	3	11.3	18	11	3	3	43%	.341	-72	2.56	11.15	16.15	15.55	13.9	9.0	2.5	2.5	-8.8	-0.5	-1.7
2006	COH	3A	3	1	0	18	6	42.2	44	20	33	1	53%	.341	-11	1.52	4.05	5.18	4.85	9.9	5.3	5.1	0.5	3.3		0.9
2006	NYA	MJ	0	1	0	4	1	9.3	11	5	7	2	29%	.321	-9	1.71	4.84	7.54	4.82	10.6	4.8	6.8	1.9	1.4	0.2	0.2
2007	SWB	3A	1	3	0	16	3	33.3	29	9	30	1	47%	.308	3	1.14	3.24	3.60	4.18	8.4	2.8	5.8	0.6	5.1		1.0
2007	NYA	MJ	2	2	0	29	1	36.7	44	27	28	6	41%	.328	-19	1.94	7.11	7.36	7.71	10.4	5.8	6.3	1.4	-8.0	0.1	-0.3

Historical Stats