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2008 Howard's PECOTA comparables suggest the system doesn't expect him to have a long battery life, a reflection of his late start and old-player skills. Still, Howard is a better hitter than any of those guys and is going to be fun while he lasts given his prodigious home runs and strikeouts. Only May's quadriceps injury kept the big man from topping 50 home runs again, though he still managed to break Adam Dunn's single-season strikeout record. For sheer entertainment value, Howard is a modern analogue to Babe Ruth. 2007 Ryan Howard is a big, really big, reason why the Phillies need to go for broke in the short term. Historically, players like Howard, big-bodied guys with limited defensive skills such as Mo Vaughn and Boog Powell, tended to have high but brief peak periods. Their legs just couldn`t carry that much mass for very long, and around 30 their defense plummeted, their playing time dropped due to nagging injuries, and their singles dried up and disappeared. The Phillies should have a three-year window in which they can expect this kind of production from Howard, but should not plan beyond that. He`ll be fun to watch in the meantime. 2006 After a year of pummeling minor league pitching like the reigning heavyweight champion would pummel a Golden Gloves winner, Howard got his chance on July 1 when Jim Thome broke down. When recalled, Howard was leading the International League in BA, OBP, and SLG while awaiting resolution of the impasse at first base in Philly--which wasn`t exactly a Gordian knot. With Thome having hit 89 homers and walked 215 times the previous two years, and with the club committed to him through 2085 at a quadrillion bucks per annum, the patently obvious solution was to deal Howard in the 2004-05 offseason for catching or pitching help--or both. However, sometimes good fortune is the residue of incompetence. The soothsayers disagree on where Howard`s career is heading: while he has outstanding power, his bat speed isn`t the greatest and he might end up merely as a very good mistake hitter. 2005 You can read the stat lines as well as we can—Howard has big league power and then some. The problem is that he has nowhere to play: While Howard worked with Milt Thompson on his corner outfield skills in Arizona, he's going to wind up at first base, and Jim Thome isn't about to go anywhere. He could stand a half a season at Scranton to improve his pitch selection – his walk rate is not that high for someone who gets pitched around so much – but he's close to as good as he's going to get, and if he languishes in the International League for two more years, it isn't going to do wonders for his trade value. We usually criticize organizations for moving good prospects prematurely, but if the Phillies find themselves in a pennant race and get an attractive offer for Howard, it would behoove them to bite.
Howard's PECOTA comparables list is interesting. The list is headlined by some unflattering names, Sam Horn, Daryle Ward and Franklin Stubbs to name a few. But just a bit further down are encouraging comparisons like Carlos Delgado and Derrek Lee, players who improved their walk rates and became very dangerous hitters. It's a potent mixture of about one shot boom and two shots bust.
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