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Raul Ibanez
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Left Field
Bats L
Age 37
6' 2"
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
LF 5 Raul Ibanez 85 198 .292 31 9 35 1 .362 .531 8.8
1   2009 Total 85 198 .292 31 9 35 1 .362 .531 8.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 SEA MLB 699 103 33 5 33 123 65 115 2 4 -1.4 .289 .353 .516 .126 .282 .353 .511 .289 38.6 156-LF -4 3.6
2007 SEA MLB 636 80 35 5 21 105 53 97 0 0 -1.0 .291 .351 .480 .119 .291 .354 .498 .289 29.9 126-LF -22 1.1
2008 SEA MLB 707 85 43 3 23 110 64 110 2 4 -2.2 .293 .358 .479 .160 .300 .368 .506 .293 38.5 151-LF -4 3.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:22 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 629 105 40 2 30 111 62 94 3 2 -2.3 .319 .388 .560 .294 .319 .388 .568 .318 54.2 147-LF -12 4.9
75o 572 83 34 2 24 94 54 87 2 2 -2.0 .302 .370 .517 .191 .302 .370 .525 .301 35.5 134-LF -11 3.3
60o 537 71 31 2 21 84 50 82 2 2 -1.9 .292 .358 .491 .128 .292 .359 .498 .290 25.4 126-LF -10 2.3
50o 511 63 28 2 18 77 47 79 2 2 -1.8 .284 .350 .472 .082 .284 .351 .479 .282 18.7 120-LF -9 1.7
40o 499 60 27 1 17 73 45 78 2 2 -1.7 .281 .347 .464 .062 .281 .347 .471 .279 15.9 118-LF -9 1.5
25o 458 49 24 1 14 63 40 72 2 2 -1.5 .269 .335 .436 -.006 .270 .335 .442 .266 7.3 109-LF -8 0.7
10o 419 40 21 1 11 54 36 67 1 2 -1.4 .259 .323 .409 -.069 .259 .324 .415 .255 0.5 100-LF -7 0.0
Weighted Mean 577 78 33 2 22 89 53 89 2 2 -1.8 .290 .357 .487 .121 .290 .357 .495 .286 26.6 135-LF -11 2.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

11%

40%

21%

16%

0.86

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 37) 577 78 33 2 22 89 53 89 2 2 -1.8 .290 .357 .487 .121 .290 .357 .495 .286 26.6 135-LF -11 2.2
2010 (age 38) 454 53 26 1 16 65 40 71 2 1 -1.2 .283 .347 .472 .055 .279 .342 .473 .279 12.5 108-LF -9 1.2
2011 (age 39) 407 45 22 1 14 58 35 65 1 1 -0.9 .286 .350 .470 .059 .282 .345 .470 .279 9.8 97-LF -11 0.7
2012 (age 40) 416 44 23 1 14 60 33 68 1 1 -0.5 .271 .331 .453 -.006 .267 .327 .454 .268 3.9 99-LF -10 0.3
2013 (age 41) 307 29 17 1 10 43 25 47 1 0 -0.3 .275 .336 .449 .000 .272 .331 .450 .269 2.3 75-LF -9 0.1
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .270 .332 .450
vs RHP .299 .372 .529
Split -.029 -.039 -.080
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 12.8 -11.0 2.2 $3,875,000 13.8 15.3
2010 6.0 -9.0 1.2 $1,650,000 3.3 5.4
2011 5.7 -11.0 0.7 $1,200,000 1.2 2.6
2012 0.2 -10.0 0.3 $700,000 -1.5 1.1
2013 0.4 -9.0 0.1 $575,000 -1.2 0.9
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 4.5 $5,500,000 15.0 25.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .301 .282 .266 .286
2010 .295 .283 .258 .279
2011 .301 .281 .254 .279
2012 .292 .271 .251 .268
2013 .294 .262 .242 .269
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 16% 0% 11%
2010 46% 18% 5%
2011 59% 33% 3%
2012 69% 50% 2%
2013 84% 62% 2%
2014 95% 79% 2%
2015 97% 91% 2%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Paul O'Neill 2000 69 11 Tino Martinez 2005 36
2 Ken Griffey 1987 49 12 Tom Paciorek 1983 36
3 B.J. Surhoff 2001 46 13 Jeromy Burnitz 2006 34
4 Fred McGriff 2000 44 14 Wally Joyner 1999 33
5 Dante Bichette 2000 43 15 Tony Perez 1979 33
6 Dave Parker 1988 43 16 Brian Jordan 2004 33
7 Larry Walker 2003 40 17 Dave Winfield 1988 32
8 Mike Easler 1987 39 18 Dale Long 1963 32
9 Moises Alou 2003 37 19 George Brett 1990 32
10 Jeff Conine 2003 36 20 Johnny Mize 1950 32

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

A red-hot streak to end the year (combined .357/.423/.634 in August and September with 15 homers) salvaged what had been an ugly season for Iba?ez. There's no telling if he had a similar revitalization in the field, but overall, it looked as though his feet had been staked to the Safeco turf. On Iba?ez's wishlist for 2008: a platoon partner (he hit just .256/.294/.356 against lefties last year while wrecking righties by going .305/.371/.528), and more time at a less demanding position such as first base or DH.

2007

BP 2004: `The Mariners are going to be staring at a lot of wasted salary by the end of his awful three-year, $13-million contract.` BP 2007: Oops. Iba?ez looked like he had started to decline in 2003 after a modest peak during his time in Kansas City. Instead, he decided to take a junior version of the Luis Gonzalez career path, by which a formerly mediocre left fielder goes on an unexpected tear in his early 30s. As for how much salary Seattle `wasted,` Iba?ez was worth nearly fourteen wins over replacement over the course of the contract. As measured by Marginal Value Above Replacement, his 2006 season alone was worth $10.4 million. Far from asking for their money back, the Mariners extended Iba?ez`s contract through 2008. As to what we said about Ibanez in 2004, well, the guy who wrote that isn`t with us anymore.

2006

One thing the front office has done well in recent years is recognize Safeco Field`s more favorable environment for left-handed hitters, tapping players like Ibanez to complement the roster`s bigger bats. Ibanez put up decent if unspectacular numbers for the second year in a row, and figures to do the same in the final year of this three-year contract. He`s a good on-base, moderate-power DH at this stage--no great shakes, but better for this team than the right-handed equivalent.

2005

There's some weird stuff afoot here. Ibanez strained his right hamstring mid-season, and was a different hitter afterwards.

Pre-hamstring-injury: .268/.330/.505
Post-hamstring-injury: .328/.369/.449

Ibanez's overall line defied projections and is due to a fluke. Historically helpless against lefties, this year he hit .295/.342/.438 against them and that, as Robert Frost would say, has made all the difference. There are rumors the team's thinking of playing Sexson in left, moving Ibanez to first. Ibanez would become a shadowy version of John Olerud: an aging, power-deficient lefty who needs a platoon partner…except Ibanez is horrible defensively, while Olerud was a picking machine.

2003

Sometimes the alien stays. There was nothing in Ibanez’s major league or minor league record that suggested he was capable of slugging .495, as he did in 2001, let alone that he could improve on that performance and slug .537. Ibanez credits his performance to learning the value of plate discipline from Edgar Martinez and John Olerud while in Seattle. While his walks fell last season, Ibanez continued to take nearly four pitches per plate appearance, once again proving the saw that even when strike zone knowledge doesn’t lead to more walks, it can lead to more hitter’s counts.

2002

It's fairly dissatisfying to spend $21.95 on a book about baseball players and find that said book doesn't have all the answers you want. We sympathize, but there's no explanation for Ibanez's performance last year. His power came from pulling the ball more, and he showed an increased willingness to work counts. For $800,000—his 2002 salary—it's a worthwhile gamble to see if the change is permanent.

2001

Cattle mutilation. Crop circles. Spontaneous human combustion. Watching golf on television. Add Piniella’s fascination with Ibanez to the list of unexplained mysteries. He’s now eligible for arbitration and out of options. Hopefully you caught this phenomenon on film before it disappears forever.

2000

Lou Piniella likes reserves who can play multiple positions for the purpose of in-game maneuvering. Unfortunately, last year's bench--Ibanez, Bournigal, Gipson, John Mabry--had plenty of versatility but not much talent. A lack of outfield prospects in the upper minors will probably enable Ibanez to again make the squad, but unless he becomes more selective at the plate and hits for more power, he won't be in the majors long enough to draw a full pension.

1999

Ibanez probably would have been their leftfielder to start the year were it not for the injury, and he's certainly no worse than any of the other options the Ms have. Unfortunately, his entire career comprises hitting for power in good power parks, and being mediocre anywhere else. There are better options available on waivers.

1997

He made all the prospect charts with a monster 1995, but it was in a great hitter’s park, he was way too old for the league and his defense got him moved from catcher to first base. Got a taste with the big club last year, but his new-found power disappeared, and a first baseman with gap power is about as rare as a cellular phone in Manhattan. Vlad doesn’t like him either.


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