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John Jaso
Tampa Bay Rays [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 25
6' 2"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 03-19)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 9 John Jaso 5 32 .250 3 1 3 0 .328 .393 0.6
1   2010 Total 5 32 .250 3 1 3 0 .328 .393 0.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 VIS A+ 406 58 22 0 10 55 31 48 1 2 -1.5 .309 .362 .451 -.235 .239 .283 .356 .222 -13.0 21-C -4 -1.6
2007 MNT AA 450 62 24 2 12 71 59 49 2 2 0.0 .316 .408 .484 .029 .275 .356 .438 .276 18.9 68-C 0 2.6
2008 MNT AA 356 51 13 2 7 43 62 33 1 0 -1.9 .271 .408 .405 -.189 .219 .329 .334 .241 -7.2 69-C -12 -0.7
2008 DUR AAA 118 14 7 0 5 24 10 14 1 1 -0.3 .278 .339 .481 -.101 .241 .305 .426 .249 0.6 25-C -3 0.0
2008 TBA MLB 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0.0 .200 .200 .200 -.623 .200 .200 .200 .079 -1.1 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:44 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 490 60 24 1 12 57 53 69 2 1 -0.9 .268 .351 .413 .019 .272 .355 .434 .277 20.6 116-C -13 2.8
75o 467 51 21 1 10 51 48 68 2 1 -0.8 .252 .333 .386 -.060 .256 .337 .406 .262 11.0 110-C -12 1.9
60o 449 45 20 1 9 47 45 67 2 1 -0.8 .241 .320 .366 -.118 .245 .324 .385 .251 4.4 106-C -12 1.3
50o 430 39 18 1 8 43 41 65 1 1 -0.7 .230 .307 .346 -.177 .233 .311 .364 .239 -1.6 102-C -11 0.7
40o 422 37 17 1 8 41 40 65 1 1 -0.7 .225 .301 .337 -.203 .228 .305 .355 .233 -4.2 100-C -11 0.4
25o 400 31 16 1 7 37 36 63 1 1 -0.6 .213 .287 .316 -.266 .216 .290 .333 .219 -9.8 96-C -10 0.0
10o 363 23 13 1 5 30 30 60 1 1 -0.5 .194 .263 .283 -.365 .197 .267 .297 .195 -17.4 87-C -9 -1.0
Weighted Mean 465 45 20 1 9 47 45 70 2 1 -0.7 .233 .311 .352 -.165 .237 .315 .371 .242 -0.3 110-C -13 0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

20%

41%

34%

17%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 25) 465 45 20 1 9 47 45 70 2 1 -0.7 .233 .311 .352 -.165 .237 .315 .371 .242 -0.3 110-C -13 0.8
2010 (age 26) 417 38 17 1 8 43 41 62 2 1 -0.5 .232 .310 .348 -.152 .238 .318 .370 .240 -0.4 99-C -11 0.7
2011 (age 27) 470 44 19 1 8 48 46 70 2 1 -0.5 .231 .309 .341 -.164 .237 .317 .363 .238 -1.3 111-C -14 0.4
2012 (age 28) 418 37 16 1 8 39 40 63 1 1 -0.3 .226 .304 .340 -.178 .233 .312 .361 .235 -1.9 100-C -12 0.3
2013 (age 29) 436 41 19 1 8 47 42 64 1 1 -0.2 .235 .312 .356 -.136 .242 .320 .378 .243 0.6 104-C -16 0.4
2014 (age 30) 445 40 17 1 7 46 45 61 1 1 -0.2 .227 .310 .333 -.177 .234 .318 .354 .235 -1.3 106-C -13 0.3
2015 (age 31) 434 39 17 1 8 42 45 64 1 1 -0.2 .227 .309 .335 -.176 .233 .317 .356 .236 -1.2 103-C -11 0.3

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .208 .284 .298
vs RHP .241 .324 .386
Split -.033 -.039 -.088
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.3 -13.0 0.8 $775,000 -4.3 2.7
2010 -1.7 -11.0 0.7 $825,000 -3.2 3.0
2011 -3.3 -14.0 0.4 $500,000 -4.6 1.8
2012 -4.1 -12.0 0.3 $500,000 -4.4 2.7
2013 -0.5 -16.0 0.4 $825,000 -2.2 2.3
2014 -4.1 -13.0 0.3 $700,000 -3.0 2.0
2015 -3.9 -11.0 0.3 $775,000 -2.4 1.6
Peak 3.0 $2,425,000 0.0 14.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .262 .239 .219 .242
2010 .254 .234 .211 .240
2011 .271 .238 .211 .238
2012 .265 .231 .200 .235
2013 .265 .235 .206 .243
2014 .273 .235 .191 .235
2015 .270 .234 .197 .236


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 17% 0% 20%
2010 37% 9% 16%
2011 43% 27% 22%
2012 45% 36% 18%
2013 61% 43% 14%
2014 66% 51% 13%
2015 64% 59% 13%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

60

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Andy Abad 1998 51 11 Jon Zuber 1995 43
2 Mark Sweeney 1995 50 12 Russ Stephans 1985 42
3 Rusty Greer 1994 49 13 Brad Mills 1982 42
4 Jamie Dismuke 1995 49 14 Kelly Snider 1981 42
5 Andy Barkett 2000 48 15 Terry Steinbach 1987 41
6 Matt Franco 1995 46 16 Tommy Dunbar 1985 41
7 Chris Carter 2008 45 17 J.D. Closser 2005 40
8 Phil Ouellette 1987 45 18 Ryan McGuire 1997 39
9 Billy_Jo Robidoux 1989 44 19 Matt Watson 2004 39
10 J.T. Snow 1993 43 20 Dan Lewis 1993 39

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

At this point, there is no doubt that Jaso can hit; he's exceeded a .300 batting average in each of the last four seasons. All of the questions about him concern his defense. He's a below-average catcher, and a slow recovery from rotator cuff surgery had him playing the position only part time in 2007. As strong as his bat may be, it doesn't profile well enough for first base, the only other position he can play, so this year's showing at Triple-A Durham will be key.

2007

Jaso followed up his breakout 2005 with a .309/.362/.451 line for Visalia in High-A ball. Careful, though: Everyone hits in the Cal League, which means he only managed a .246 EqA. If he doesn`t stick behind the plate--Jaso`s defense gets an `e` for effort--he doesn`t have enough bat to be an asset at first or DH.

2006

At 19, Jaso hit about as well as you would expect from a 12th-round pick, but he has blossomed since. He`s selective, and showed home run power for the first time last year. Ostensibly a catcher, he was limited to DH duties late in the season because of a shoulder injury. The next step is to play over 100 games in a season and see what shakes out.


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