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2007 Derek Jeter is your AL VORP leader, regardless of MVP controversies, and, less convincingly, the AL`s Gold Glove shortstop for 2006. An argument can be made that Jeter`s 2006 was even better than his shoulda-been-MVP 1999 because he was more problematic defensively in the earlier season. Metrics that once condemned Jeter are more complimentary now, though the initial edition of John Dewan`s Fielding Bible made a convincing case that the statistical progress has not been mirrored in Jeter`s real-world performance. A more intriguing question, and one more easily answered, is, do we expect an encore from a player who will turn 33 this year and just had his second-best season? From 2003 to 2005, Jeter batted .307/.377/.458, in line with his career statistics to that point (.314/.386/.461). He`ll be closer to that level this year. Jeter`s a strange case; most players gain power and lose batting average as they age, but he seems to be doing the opposite. 2006 It`s been taken for granted among beat writers and broadcasters that Jeter is miscast in the leadoff role, and that the Yankees instead need a `traditional` leadoff man--someone like Vince Coleman. Let`s be blunt: it`s rank stupidity. Jeter ranked seventh in the American League in OBP and was the highest ranked hitter to bat leadoff, which is why he scored 122 runs in 2005 (he missed tying for the league runs lead by two). The suggestion seems to be that the Yankees would be better with a leadoff man who stole more bases but scored fewer runs. Only in professional sports journalism, where many of the writers make Judith Miller look like a paragon of evenhanded, informed reporting, could that make sense. Johnny Damon will make for a good test of these folks and Joe Torre: will reality win out, or will the batting order be based on a shared foolishness? 2005 For those of us in the performance analysis biz, Jeter is a difficult problem because any realistic evaluation of his skills, no matter how flattering, seems like a slight when compared to his reputation. In the eyes of true believers, Honus Wagner and Superman combined couldn't do half the things Jeter does. In truth, he's terrific at going back on shallow pop-ups and executing the jump throw in the hole. Other aspects of the job—fielding grounders to his left for instance—elude him, and it doesn't take an MS in scouting or statistics to see it. When watching a Yankees game, simply pay attention to the opposing shortstop. He will routinely get to balls that Jeter cannot. As for the Gold Glove, peel back the foil on the award and you'll find there's some tasty chocolate underneath. That's about what it's worth, though at least Jeter was better this year. On offense, Jeter walked less than ever before and doubled his previous high in sac bunts, perhaps because he lost confidence after a shockingly poor April. Jeter is a Hall of Famer to be, a key player on a great team, an inspirational leader, a fine hitter…and he gives up a lot of singles with his glove. In light of the rest, why is that last part so difficult to accept? 2003 That’s right, we’ve got a trend on our hands: Jeter is in his third year of losing slices of offensive value. That doesn’t make him bad, any more than his consistently execrable defense makes him “bad.” But these things do start adding up to become problems. The way the various third base suspects look, moving Jeter to the hot corner would make sense, or he could follow the Yount career path and move out to center, letting Bernie Williams move to an outfield corner. The problem is, who do you replace Jeter with at short? As long as the choices are limited to the Almontes of the world, you can forgive the Yankees for ignoring the problem, although Jeter’s glove killed the Yankees in the postseason. But if his offense keeps slipping while his contract escalates...A-Rod’s contract looks like a bargain in comparison. 2002 We give Jeter a lot of flack about his dismal defense, and he deserves it. That being said, he may be one of the most UNDERrated ballplayers ever, which is unimaginable for a young, happening Yankee. Jeter's offense is truly outstanding. He hits for a very high average despite playing in a tough ballpark for right-handed hitters; he has the best base-stealing technique this side of Tim Raines; and he will, over the next three to five years, develop significantly more home-run power. Is he Alex Rodriguez? No, but he could be a guy who hits .350/.460/.590 with 35 steals in 40 attempts and plays in 150 games a year for eight years in a row. So he may be 20 runs worse than average with the glove. Big deal. 2001 Yes, his defense really is that bad. No, it doesn't mean he should be moved. His offense is still more than enough to make him a championship-caliber player, and none of the Yankees' shortstop prospects are superior fielders. Derek Jeter still has a power spike coming; like Barry Larkin, his plate discipline and power will keep improving into his thirties. 2000 Analysts can argue all day about his defense, but the fact is that his reputation is very good, so he’s not moving off shortstop anytime soon. It’s not like he’s Howard Johnson, and he may improve slightly as he continues to learn positioning. His pivot is still poor, but his arm makes up for some of that. This is all just nit-picking: Jeter is one of the best players in baseball, four years into a Hall of Fame career. 1999 Took the big step forward this year; the Brosius signing means he won't be moving to third base anytime soon, but his defense at shortstop warrants the discussion at least. He has excellent hands and a strong arm, but isn't anything special on the pivot, and seems to struggle going to his left. The arm hides some of this. Jeter could improve the same way Ken Griffey, whose defense was overrated for many years, did. Even with a below-average glove, Jeter is a special player. 1998 We’ve been very critical of his defense, so we should note that his range factor and Defensive Index are both average to slightly below. He didn’t make the great leap forward offensively, but improved marginally in most areas while staying healthy. He’ll be a reasonable MVP candidate a couple of times in the next six years. 1997 Impressive debut, overshadowed by the historic season of Alex Rodriguez. Jeter hit a little better than expected and his defense, questioned in the minors, was steady all year. Odd development during the year: he hit .277 with a good walk rate and very little power in the first half, .350 with more power but few walks in the second. I expect him to keep the average and power, improve the strikeout and walk numbers and be a great player. Idle thought: could a Rickey Henderson/Tim Raines thing develop between Rodriguez and Jeter? 1996 Another young turk shortstop, and most definitely the real thing. Does everything well except walk, and he's shown flashes of doing that for a few weeks at a time. Will win an AL batting title right around the turn of the century or so, and twenty years from now, people will be arguing over whether or not he or Rodriguez was a better player. Supposedly has a problem making the long throw from the hole to first, but who cares, and how much of problem is that anyway? I've seen him make that throw, and I don't see an appreciable difference between his arm and a dozen other shortstops.
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