<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

Mark Johnson
Chicago Cubs [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 33
6'
180 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 NAS AAA 162 14 7 0 2 10 14 31 1 0 -0.3 .203 .281 .294 -.527 .163 .230 .238 .157 -18.7 40-C -9 -2.1
2007 TUC AAA 301 37 10 0 4 34 52 21 0 2 -1.5 .320 .440 .410 -.159 .242 .357 .306 .245 -3.4 58-C -3 5-1B -1 0.2
2008 MEM AAA 239 17 9 0 1 31 33 28 1 1 1.6 .264 .371 .323 -.350 .211 .303 .249 .200 -15.5 57-C -13 -2.0
2008 SLN MLB 18 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 0 -0.1 .294 .333 .294 -.193 .294 .333 .294 .223 0.0 5-C 0 0.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:21 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 220 29 11 1 3 27 29 36 1 1 -0.6 .277 .377 .385 -.012 .274 .373 .384 .271 8.1 55-C -6 1.0
75o 213 24 10 0 2 24 27 35 1 1 -0.5 .258 .355 .352 -.105 .255 .352 .352 .252 3.2 54-C -5 0.6
60o 206 21 8 0 2 20 25 34 1 1 -0.5 .240 .334 .322 -.192 .237 .331 .321 .234 -1.1 52-C -5 0.2
50o 201 18 7 0 2 18 23 33 1 1 -0.4 .227 .320 .300 -.252 .225 .317 .300 .221 -3.9 51-C -5 0.0
40o 200 18 7 0 2 18 23 33 1 1 -0.4 .226 .318 .298 -.260 .223 .315 .297 .219 -4.2 51-C -5 0.0
25o 191 14 6 0 1 14 20 32 1 0 -0.4 .207 .295 .265 -.355 .204 .292 .265 .196 -8.2 49-C -4 -0.5
10o 168 8 3 0 0 6 15 28 0 0 -0.3 .167 .246 .198 -.550 .165 .243 .198 .135 -14.8 43-C -3 -1.1
Weighted Mean 178 15 7 0 1 15 20 29 1 0 -0.4 .229 .322 .303 -.223 .226 .318 .303 .222 -2.2 46-C -4 0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

44%

64%

25%

56%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 33) 178 15 7 0 1 15 20 29 1 0 -0.4 .229 .322 .303 -.223 .226 .318 .303 .222 -2.2 46-C -4 0.1
2010 (age 34) 196 18 7 0 2 18 21 33 1 0 -0.2 .229 .317 .318 -.250 .223 .309 .314 .224 -1.7 50-C -3 0.1
2011 (age 35) 185 16 7 0 2 15 21 31 1 0 -0.1 .237 .325 .318 -.231 .231 .317 .313 .228 -0.7 47-C -3 0.1
2012 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .203 .293 .248
vs RHP .237 .336 .330
Split -.034 -.043 -.081
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -2.4 -4.0 0.1 $400,000 -7.2 0.4
2010 -2.2 -3.0 0.1 $400,000 -4.0 1.0
2011 -1.4 -3.0 0.1 $400,000 -2.3 0.8
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.1 $225,000 0.0 2.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .252 .221 .196 .222
2010 .265 .215 .173 .224
2011 .274 .225 .189 .228
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 56% 0% 44%
2010 68% 40% 33%
2011 84% 63% 25%
2012 87% 80% 24%
2013 94% 87% 18%
2014 99% 93% 18%
2015 100% 99% 14%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

27

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Kirt Manwaring 1999 45 11 Rick Cerone 1988 23
2 Jeff Reed 1996 44 12 Tim McCarver 1975 23
3 Jesse Levis 2002 38 13 Andy Etchebarren 1977 23
4 Bruce Benedict 1989 38 14 Hector Ortiz 2003 22
5 Joe Ginsberg 1960 37 15 Danny Heep 1991 22
6 Chris Bando 1989 30 16 George Strickland 1959 22
7 Paul Bako 2006 27 17 Dick Schofield 1968 22
8 Danny Sheaffer 1995 24 18 Hal Wagner 1949 21
9 Duffy Dyer 1979 23 19 Duane Kuiper 1984 21
10 Dal Maxvill 1972 23 20 Jason Kendall 2008 20

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2005

There's no question that we are big fans of plate discipline and players that can draw walks. However, there's more to offensive production than convincing yourself to keep the bat on your shoulder, and Johnson simply lacks the requisite skills to actually hit a baseball. His .217 career batting average isn't a fluke; if you throw him strikes, you can get him out. Re-signed to a minor league deal, Johnson should head to Nashville and play Crash Davis for the pitching staff.

2003

Johnson isn’t Piazza-in-waiting, but the Sox should have taken a chance on him instead of screwing around with Sandy Alomar Jr. last year. A lot of Johnson’s offensive value comes from his strong plate discipline, which some teams don’t value as much as others. It isn’t surprising the A’s nabbed him in the Foulke-Koch trade. He’ll be backing up Ramon Hernandez in 2003, with his defense and patience giving him the opportunity to push into sharing the job.

2002

Johnson has been the Sox' best option for catcher since the middle of the 1999 season. Despite this, they've messed around with Sandy Alomar, Josh Paul, and Brook Fordyce while shuttling Johnson between Illinois and North Carolina. Feh. He was the semi-regular in the second half of 2001; if he can get 350-400 at-bats in 2002, the Sox will get back to the top of the division. Good arm.

2001

Mark Johnson is out of favor. He’s considered too passive a hitter, but drawing walks is his primary offensive skill. Unlike Josh Paul, he's never been one of Kenny Williams’s guys, even though he is an outstanding catcher and plate blocker. If the Sox weren’t so stubborn about Paul, Johnson would give them 60 walks and a dozen home runs in the ninth slot as a semi-regular. Now, he'll wait for the inevitable Sandy Alomar injury.

2000

Johnson is already one of the best defensive catchers in the game, good at framing and receiving pitches. He's also one of the most nimble catchers, making it look easy when he pushes off his back leg from the crouch to put himself squarely in front of an errant pitch. Beyond that, he contributes to the offense by working pitchers and taking walks. He’s comparable to Mike LaValliere, and potentially better.

1998

Johnson has been a disappointment since his selection in the first round, but he’s a polished defender and handles his pitching staff well. Although he isn’t progressing offensively like they’d hoped, he has the most important offensive skill: control of the strike zone.

1997

Late bloomer? It took him three tries, until he was 26, to figure out AA pitching, and you could charitably call 1995 a year that should have been spent in Calgary. It’s hard to imagine he’ll do any better than this, and it’s barely adequate for a first baseman.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2009 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.