Rob Johnson

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Mariners Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Rob Johnson 50 111 .234 11 1 9 2 .293 .339 -0.7

1 2009 Total 50 111 .234 11 1 9 2 .293 .339 -0.7

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:13 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	454	57	22	2	9	47	32	79	9	3	-0.2	.274	.329	.403	-.025	.278	.333	.426	.265	14.2	108-C -7	2.6
75^o	424	46	18	2	7	41	29	78	7	3	-0.2	.255	.309	.370	-.123	.258	.312	.391	.247	3.6	101-C -7	1.5
60^o	397	37	16	2	6	37	25	76	6	3	-0.2	.240	.292	.342	-.204	.242	.294	.362	.231	-4.2	95-C -7	0.7
50^o	375	31	14	1	5	34	23	74	6	3	-0.1	.227	.278	.321	-.266	.230	.281	.339	.217	-9.5	90-C -7	0.1
40^o	366	29	13	1	5	32	22	74	5	3	-0.1	.222	.272	.312	-.292	.225	.275	.330	.211	-11.5	88-C -7	-0.2
25^o	344	24	12	1	4	29	20	71	5	2	-0.1	.211	.260	.293	-.349	.214	.263	.310	.198	-15.4	83-C -6	-0.6
10^o	263	12	7	1	2	19	13	61	2	2	-0.1	.178	.222	.235	-.519	.180	.224	.248	.148	-22.3	65-C -5	-1.6
Weighted Mean	381	33	15	1	6	36	24	74	6	3	-0.1	.234	.285	.332	-.237	.237	.288	.351	.224	-5.9	91-C -6	0.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
32%	48%	29%	26%	1.27

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 25)	381	33	15	1	6	36	24	74	6	3	-0.1	.234	.285	.332	-.237	.237	.288	.351	.224	-5.9	91-C -6	0.4
2010 (age 26)	388	33	16	1	5	34	24	75	6	3	-0.1	.226	.279	.320	-.253	.232	.285	.342	.217	-7.5	93-C -5	0.2
2011 (age 27)	394	36	16	1	6	36	25	70	5	3	0.0	.239	.292	.342	-.189	.245	.299	.365	.229	-3.0	94-C -5	0.4
2012 (age 28)	367	33	15	1	6	36	24	67	5	3	0.0	.239	.293	.345	-.183	.245	.300	.369	.231	-2.4	88-C -6	0.6
2013 (age 29)	336	29	12	1	5	31	22	62	4	2	0.0	.237	.293	.338	-.195	.243	.299	.362	.228	-2.9	81-C -5	0.3
2014 (age 30)	382	34	14	1	6	36	26	68	5	2	0.1	.235	.290	.332	-.210	.241	.296	.355	.225	-2.9	91-C -5	0.3
2015 (age 31)	327	30	12	1	6	34	23	53	5	2	0.1	.249	.306	.356	-.137	.255	.313	.380	.241	0.3	79-C -6	0.4

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.249	.304	.359
vs RHP	.229	.278	.320
Split	+.020	+.026	+.039
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-7.7	-6.0	0.4	$400,000	-6.3	1.8
2010	-10.4	-5.0	0.2	$400,000	-7.3	1.1
2011	-5.8	-5.0	0.4	$625,000	-3.4	3.2
2012	-4.7	-6.0	0.6	$950,000	-2.0	4.1
2013	-5.2	-5.0	0.3	$625,000	-3.5	3.6
2014	-7.1	-5.0	0.3	$700,000	-2.6	1.7
2015	-0.9	-6.0	0.4	$1,125,000	0.3	2.9
Peak			2.1	$1,750,000	0.0	15.5

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.247	.217	.198	.224
2010	.242	.215	.188	.217
2011	.248	.230	.203	.229
2012	.258	.230	.189	.231
2013	.250	.218	.187	.228
2014	.240	.210	.187	.225
2015	.265	.234	.210	.241

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	26%	0%	32%
2010	41%	8%	28%
2011	40%	19%	37%
2012	42%	23%	34%
2013	56%	28%	25%
2014	63%	45%	20%
2015	73%	61%	20%

64

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Walt McKeel	1997	58		11	Koyie Hill	2005	48
2	Jim Gaudet	1981	55		12	Brian Schneider	2002	47
3	Ed Hearn	1986	54		13	Ray Smith	1981	47
4	Bill Bathe	1986	51		14	Brad Ausmus	1995	47
5	Mike Durant	1995	49		15	Joe Girardi	1990	46
6	Sean Mulligan	1996	49		16	Scooter Tucker	1992	46
7	Jason Jaramillo	2008	49		17	Andy Stewart	1996	46
8	Jason Moler	1995	49		18	Keith Osik	1994	46
9	Justin Knoedler	2006	49		19	Casey McGehee	2008	45
10	Don McCormack	1981	48		20	Mike Heath	1981	45

Player Comments

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2008

We're beginning to wonder if Johnson is a fugitive from justice in one or more jurisdictions of the Southern League. Why else would the Mariners insist that he not see any time at Double-A, no matter how badly his bat suffered at Triple-A Tacoma? Johnson will likely get his third tour of the Pacific Coast League this season, the upside being that if he ever solves the league well enough to convince people he can hit, his reward will be to come to the majors as either Johjima's or Clement's back-up.

2007

In the mad rush to get their catching prospects to the majors, the Mariners made Johnson--with all of 80 High-A plate appearances under his belt--skip Double-A altogether and spend all of 2006 in Tacoma. Guess what? It was hard! Johnson`s a good catch-and-throw guy, but his bat is going to take some time to develop. Tacoma might not be big enough for Johnson and Clement to both get the playing time they need.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	TAC	AAA	359	28	9	4	4	33	13	74	14	7	-0.1	.231	.261	.318	-.410	.214	.242	.293	.185	-29.8	71-C 2	-1.4
2007	TAC	AAA	465	57	26	0	6	40	39	62	7	7	-0.6	.268	.331	.372	-.203	.246	.307	.343	.226	-11.0	68-C -5	-0.8
2008	TAC	AAA	463	55	30	0	9	49	37	61	7	6	-2.5	.305	.363	.441	-.080	.276	.328	.392	.249	4.9	90-C -3 9-LF -4	0.6
2008	SEA	MLB	32	2	0	0	1	2	0	6	0	0	0.0	.129	.129	.226	-.753	.129	.129	.226	.000	-4.4	7-C 0	-0.4

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats