Rob Johnson

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:24 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	453	52	21	2	8	45	34	81	11	4	0.7	.263	.321	.382	-.091	.266	.324	.407	.259	9.4	107-C -4	3.2
75^o	434	44	19	1	7	41	30	80	10	4	0.6	.249	.303	.354	-.170	.251	.306	.376	.243	0.4	103-C -5	2.3
60^o	425	41	18	1	6	40	28	79	9	4	0.6	.242	.295	.340	-.206	.245	.298	.362	.235	-3.4	101-C -5	1.8
50^o	414	37	16	1	5	37	26	78	8	4	0.6	.235	.285	.325	-.248	.237	.288	.346	.225	-7.7	99-C -6	1.4
40^o	406	34	15	1	5	36	24	78	8	4	0.6	.229	.278	.314	-.278	.232	.281	.334	.218	-10.6	97-C -6	1.0
25^o	392	30	14	1	4	33	22	77	7	4	0.5	.220	.266	.296	-.328	.222	.268	.315	.206	-15.2	94-C -7	0.5
10^o	365	23	11	1	2	29	17	74	6	4	0.4	.205	.245	.265	-.415	.207	.248	.282	.182	-22.1	88-C -8	-0.4
Weighted Mean	436	40	17	1	6	40	27	82	9	4	0.6	.236	.286	.327	-.242	.238	.289	.348	.226	-8.0	104-C -5	2.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
43%	61%	18%	18%	0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	436	40	17	1	6	40	27	82	9	4	0.6	.236	.286	.327	-.242	.238	.289	.348	.226	-8.0	104-C -5	2.0
2009 (age 25)	433	42	18	1	7	42	29	79	8	4	0.5	.239	.294	.344	-.205	.245	.301	.372	.235	-2.6	103-C -4	1.8
2010 (age 26)	349	29	14	1	4	32	23	65	7	3	0.3	.236	.290	.329	-.233	.243	.297	.357	.229	-3.5	84-C -6	1.0
2011 (age 27)	345	32	15	1	6	33	24	63	7	3	0.3	.251	.305	.361	-.156	.257	.313	.391	.245	0.9	83-C -5	1.3
2012 (age 28)	360	33	14	1	5	36	23	64	7	3	0.2	.249	.300	.348	-.182	.256	.308	.377	.239	-0.4	86-C -6	0.9
2013 (age 29)	381	37	15	1	6	38	26	64	9	4	0.2	.247	.303	.354	-.170	.254	.311	.383	.243	0.2	91-C -6	0.8
2014 (age 30)	406	40	18	1	6	42	28	72	9	4	0.1	.247	.303	.355	-.169	.254	.311	.385	.242	0.2	97-C -8	0.7

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.252	.307	.356
vs RHP	.231	.278	.314
Split	+.021	+.029	+.042
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.0	2.0	2.0	$2,250,000	-4.8	1.6
2009	0.2	1.6	1.8	$2,300,000	1.0	5.6
2010	0.1	0.9	1.0	$1,175,000	-2.9	1.9
2011	0.4	0.9	1.3	$2,075,000	2.5	4.1
2012	0.2	0.7	0.9	$1,250,000	0.2	1.6
2013	0.2	0.6	0.8	$1,475,000	1.3	1.3
2014	0.2	0.5	0.7	$1,100,000	0.1	1.9
Peak			7.8	$6,950,000	4.2	16.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.243	.225	.206	.226
2009	.243	.226	.206	.235
2010	.247	.225	.202	.229
2011	.255	.243	.214	.245
2012	.260	.233	.208	.239
2013	.264	.241	.221	.243
2014	.248	.235	.216	.242

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	18%	0%	43%
2009	31%	17%	45%
2010	54%	27%	43%
2011	57%	41%	50%
2012	61%	50%	40%
2013	77%	58%	37%
2014	74%	68%	30%

60

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong! Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Mike Durant	1992	40		11	Jason Hill	2003	33
2	Koyie Hill	1979	36		12	Howard Battle	1971	33
3	Bradley Davis	1981	36		13	Rick Allen	1982	33
4	Blake Barthol	1970	36		14	Devin Ivany	1960	33
5	Mike Hubbard	1973	35		15	Javi Herrera	2007	32
6	Javier Flores	1992	35		16	Pedro Grifol	1975	32
7	Pat Cline	1975	34		17	Rick Cerone	1969	32
8	Scott Hunter	1975	34		18	Michael Dzurilla	2000	31
9	Gary Bennett	1957	34		19	Bob Davis	1979	30
10	Jason Huisman	1998	33		20	Jeremy Jones	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

In the mad rush to get their catching prospects to the majors, the Mariners made Johnson--with all of 80 High-A plate appearances under his belt--skip Double-A altogether and spend all of 2006 in Tacoma. Guess what? It was hard! Johnson`s a good catch-and-throw guy, but his bat is going to take some time to develop. Tacoma might not be big enough for Johnson and Clement to both get the playing time they need.

Historical Stats