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Austin Kearns
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats R
Age 28
6' 4"
225 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
RF 5 Austin Kearns 85 588 .271 80 20 78 5 .361 .458 21.3
1   2008 Total 85 588 .271 80 20 78 5 .361 .458 21.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LOU 3A 123 24 15 1 7 21 11 30 0 0 1.0 .342 .407 .685 .551 .268 .339 .580 .298 8.6 26-RF 0 1.2
2005 CIN MJ 448 62 26 1 18 67 48 107 0 0 1.6 .240 .333 .452 .036 .238 .330 .456 .270 9.0 101-RF 8 4.0
2006 CIN MJ 368 53 21 1 16 50 35 85 7 1 -0.3 .274 .351 .492 .111 .269 .348 .485 .285 15.7 84-RF 11 4.2
2006 WAS MJ 261 33 12 1 8 36 41 50 2 3 0.7 .250 .381 .429 .088 .259 .388 .453 .290 7.8 55-RF 5 2.7
2007 WAS MJ 674 84 35 1 16 74 71 106 2 2 1.7 .266 .355 .411 .035 .276 .366 .432 .277 12.6 154-RF 17 6.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 12:35 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 600 97 34 2 25 86 72 110 7 3 0.0 .293 .385 .516 .192 .293 .385 .526 .305 38.7 140-RF 6 6.9
75o 563 83 30 2 22 77 65 104 6 2 0.0 .282 .373 .488 .125 .281 .373 .497 .294 27.6 132-RF 6 5.8
60o 539 74 28 2 20 72 61 100 6 2 0.0 .275 .365 .469 .082 .274 .366 .478 .287 20.8 127-RF 5 5.1
50o 519 68 26 2 18 67 58 96 5 2 0.0 .269 .359 .453 .046 .268 .359 .462 .280 15.6 122-RF 4 4.5
40o 506 64 25 2 17 64 56 94 5 2 0.0 .265 .355 .444 .024 .265 .355 .453 .276 12.7 119-RF 4 4.2
25o 475 55 22 1 14 57 52 88 4 2 0.0 .256 .345 .421 -.030 .256 .345 .429 .267 5.9 112-RF 4 3.5
10o 414 40 18 1 10 46 43 77 3 2 0.0 .240 .327 .379 -.128 .239 .327 .386 .248 -4.4 99-RF 2 2.2
Weighted Mean 564 77 29 2 20 75 64 104 6 2 0.0 .271 .361 .458 .057 .270 .361 .467 .281 20.5 132-RF 6 4.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

12%

50%

17%

14%

0.75

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 28) 564 77 29 2 20 75 64 104 6 2 0.0 .271 .361 .458 .057 .270 .361 .467 .281 20.5 132-RF 6 4.7
2009 (age 29) 552 74 29 1 19 77 61 100 5 2 0.0 .271 .358 .457 .052 .267 .353 .458 .280 15.0 130-RF 4 4.1
2010 (age 30) 535 72 27 2 19 73 62 98 5 2 -0.1 .273 .362 .462 .066 .268 .357 .462 .283 15.0 126-RF 4 3.9
2011 (age 31) 518 70 25 1 19 73 61 92 4 2 -0.1 .273 .366 .464 .077 .269 .361 .465 .285 13.9 122-RF 3 3.4
2012 (age 32) 551 75 28 2 19 75 64 101 4 2 -0.1 .270 .362 .457 .058 .266 .357 .457 .282 10.5 129-RF 2 2.8
2013 (age 33) 522 68 26 1 19 72 64 96 3 1 -0.1 .268 .363 .456 .055 .264 .357 .456 .281 9.5 123-RF -1 2.4
2014 (age 34) 504 65 24 2 17 65 61 91 3 1 -0.1 .272 .365 .449 .053 .268 .360 .449 .280 7.4 119-RF 0 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .286 .385 .481
vs RHP .265 .348 .440
Split +.021 +.037 +.041
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.7 2.1 4.7 $10,575,000 22.6 18.1
2009 2.4 1.7 4.1 $8,925,000 16.5 15.1
2010 2.3 1.5 3.9 $9,100,000 16.5 19.7
2011 2.1 1.3 3.4 $8,300,000 14.5 17.3
2012 1.7 1.1 2.8 $6,825,000 10.9 11.4
2013 1.6 0.8 2.4 $5,725,000 7.9 8.9
2014 1.2 0.9 2.1 $5,300,000 7.0 6.9
Peak 21.2 $40,125,000 88.8 90.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .294 .280 .267 .281
2009 .298 .282 .266 .280
2010 .296 .276 .256 .283
2011 .306 .283 .256 .285
2012 .299 .281 .259 .282
2013 .309 .276 .251 .281
2014 .303 .281 .252 .280


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 14% 0% 12%
2009 23% 2% 10%
2010 33% 9% 17%
2011 44% 18% 20%
2012 50% 30% 12%
2013 54% 33% 14%
2014 66% 45% 10%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

It took five years, but Kearns finally showed what he could do as an everyday player last year, and it was solid stuff, even despite his post-deal slump. The comparisons to Dewey Evans, above, seems more apt than Dale Murphy--Kearns isn`t on the cusp of winning an MVP award, and, however much some might wish he was a center fielder, he really isn`t. Like Dewey, he`s relatively athletic for a big guy, and, if his arm is somewhat less legendary, it`s still effective. The question remains: Is he worth signing to a multi-year extension before he reaches free agency, or does he want to get out of Dodge? The Nats need to get the answer before the July trade deadline and act accordingly.

2006

It takes a really boneheaded organization to not appreciate the synchronicity of having a pair of gifted, powerful young outfielders to build a franchise around, but the Reds have been equal to the task of sabotaging at least one career between Dunn and Kearns. Although Kearns earned a spanking by reporting to camp overweight and out-of-shape last year, he should have spent the spring listening to the Reds talk about how their two titans were going to lead the club back to glory. Instead, he spent the spring hearing trade rumors and competing with Wily Mo Pena for a job because Dan O`Brien hadn`t yet figured out that dividing five players among four positions does neither the club nor the players any good. Kearns` 38 days of banishment in Louisville will have the convenient effect of delaying his free-agency by a year (till after 2008), assuming he spends all of the next two years in the majors.

2005

It's a sad statement on this team that the Reds can take a pleasant dilemma such as having four good hitters in the outfield and turn it into a potential disaster for two of their best young players, Kearns and Edwin Encarnacion. We're all for creative use of roster space, and if Kearns could somehow morph into a solid-fielding third baseman, stay healthy and retain his sweet hitting stroke… happily, the Joe Randa signing mercifully scuttles the thought. The worry now is that Kearns won't have a full-time gig, but the Reds are kidding themselves if they think none of their outfielders will get hurt. Opinions differ on whether that'll be Kearns himself—he's certainly young enough to shake off the injury-prone tag. PECOTA sees a 90-game season ahead, albeit a huge one. We see closer to 120 games played and the first step back toward stardom.

2003

Kearns went AWOL when sent to Chattanooga near the end of the spring training. Three weeks later he was in Cincinnati and on his way to being the Reds’ best hitter last season. Kearns is solidly above average in all phases of the game, combining outstanding knowledge of the strike zone with a vicious line drive stroke like a modern-day Al Kaline. Bowden took Kearns and Dunn with the club’s top two picks in June 1998, a duo that will be regarded as the best one-two pairing in the history of the amateur draft within a few years. With Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns patrolling the outfield, the Reds will be perennial playoff contenders if the rest of the team is merely average.

2002

Before 2001, if you were going to pick the Reds farmhand most likely to be on this book’s cover, it would have been Kearns. He’s a big, athletic outfielder who was perceived to be a more natural baseball player than Adam Dunn. That was before a thumb injury cost him three months, but he bounced back to have a great AFL campaign. He pitched in high school, so you know he has the arm for right field. He’ll complete the Reds’ outfield of stars before the end of the year, although it would be unrealistic to expect Kearns to provide anything like Dunn’s explosive breakthrough.

2001

Austin Kearns is the Reds' best prospect, bar none. Scouts love him for his tools while people like us get excited about the power and plate discipline he's shown at age 20. His 2000 performance is inflated by the level--a real comer doesn't usually get 900-odd ABs in the Midwest League--so he may look like a relative disappointment this year. Ignore it: Kearns will be a star.

2000

Kearns is another young tools outfielder who doesn’t control the strike zone as well as you’d like. There was a sale, apparently. He was the Reds’ 1998 #1 pick, and he showed good power and speed at Rockford. In Kearns, Diaz and Dunn, the Reds have three guys with significant upside, one of whom should turn out to be a player. Kearns is the middle talent of the three, without the power of Dunn or the arm and glove of Diaz, but with fewer large holes in his game than either.

1999

The Reds' #1 pick this year, he signed late but had a good stint when he finally showed up in Billings. Kearns is extremely athletic and has a very high ceiling if he can harness his tools. Handled himself very well considering his age.


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