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Jason LaRue
St. Louis Cardinals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 34
5' 11"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Cardinals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Jason LaRue 25 162 .220 15 4 18 1 .310 .368 2.3
1   2008 Total 25 162 .220 15 4 18 1 .310 .368 2.3

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 CIN MJ 422 38 27 0 14 60 41 101 0 0 -0.3 .260 .355 .452 .089 .255 .348 .453 .276 23.2 104-C -1 4.4
2006 SAR 1C 13 1 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 0.3 .167 .231 .167 -.454 .167 .231 .167 .108 -2.0 0.0
2006 LOU 3A 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.0 .250 .250 .375 -.131 .250 .250 .375 .209 -0.3 0.0
2006 CIN MJ 230 22 5 0 8 21 27 51 1 0 -1.2 .194 .317 .346 -.197 .187 .307 .332 .230 -4.3 57-C 7 2.3
2007 OMA 3A 15 2 1 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 -0.4 .083 .214 .167 -.715 .154 .267 .308 .208 -0.9 0.0
2007 KCA MJ 195 14 9 0 4 13 17 66 1 0 -0.7 .148 .240 .272 -.461 .149 .249 .280 .189 -13.0 54-C 4 0.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:01 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 201 29 9 0 8 25 22 48 1 0 -0.6 .263 .362 .459 .053 .261 .362 .476 .285 11.8 51-C -2 2.2
75o 188 23 8 0 6 22 19 46 1 0 -0.5 .241 .336 .412 -.068 .240 .336 .428 .262 5.6 48-C -2 1.6
60o 178 18 8 0 5 19 17 44 1 0 -0.5 .225 .316 .378 -.159 .224 .316 .393 .245 1.5 46-C -1 1.3
50o 171 16 7 0 4 18 15 43 1 0 -0.4 .215 .303 .356 -.217 .213 .303 .370 .233 -0.9 44-C -1 1.0
40o 166 15 7 0 4 17 15 42 1 0 -0.4 .208 .295 .342 -.253 .207 .295 .356 .225 -2.3 43-C -1 0.9
25o 157 12 6 0 3 15 13 40 1 0 -0.4 .196 .279 .316 -.322 .195 .279 .328 .210 -4.7 41-C -1 0.7
10o 131 7 5 0 2 11 10 35 1 0 -0.3 .166 .241 .254 -.490 .166 .241 .263 .166 -9.2 35-C 0 0.2
Weighted Mean 151 14 6 0 4 17 14 38 1 0 -0.4 .220 .310 .368 -.183 .219 .310 .383 .238 2.1 40-C 1 1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

38%

56%

28%

57%

1.07

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 34) 151 14 6 0 4 17 14 38 1 0 -0.4 .220 .310 .368 -.183 .219 .310 .383 .238 2.1 40-C 1 1.9
2009 (age 35) 154 13 6 0 4 16 14 41 1 0 -0.3 .211 .295 .347 -.245 .207 .290 .354 .225 -1.3 40-C 0 0.6
2010 (age 36) 118 8 5 0 2 11 11 30 1 0 -0.2 .208 .294 .323 -.279 .204 .290 .330 .218 -1.4 32-C 0 0.4
2011 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .235 .326 .393
vs RHP .217 .303 .355
Split +.018 +.023 +.039
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.2 1.7 1.9 $2,400,000 1.8 3.7
2009 0.0 0.7 0.6 $775,000 -1.8 0.9
2010 0.0 0.4 0.4 $600,000 -1.6 0.5
2011 0.0 0.3 0.2 $500,000 -1.4 0.2
2012 0.0 0.2 0.2 $475,000 -0.8 0.0
2013 0.0 0.1 0.0 $425,000 -0.8 0.0
2014 0.0 0.1 0.1 $475,000 0.0 0.1
Peak 3.4 $2,650,000 0.0 5.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .262 .233 .210 .238
2009 .246 .221 .190 .225
2010 .248 .223 .171 .218
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 57% 0% 38%
2009 73% 31% 23%
2010 84% 50% 18%
2011 91% 68% 20%
2012 95% 78% 10%
2013 98% 88% 6%
2014 99% 94% 6%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The combination of a preseason knee injury and the incredible hot streak of David Ross reduced the five-year incumbent backstop to `what have you done for me lately` status. If he`s healthy and gets a larger share of playing time in Kansas City at John Buck`s expense, he might reward the Royals` decision to take on $2.5 million of what he`s owed for 2007, especially if he thrives in the first three or four months and Dayton Moore sensibly flips him at the deadline.

2006

LaRue has settled comfortably into a useful role, and even improved in 2005, posting modest career highs in BA, SLG, and OBP. Platooning with Javier Valentin helped, but LaRue`s increased walk rate was mostly negated by his big drop in getting on base by taking one (or several) for the team. LaRue`s power comes on mistake fastballs; his long swing and average bat speed make him vulnerable to breaking and off-speed stuff. Defensively, LaRue`s accurate arm remains his primary asset, gunning 33% of base bandits.

2005

Like a kid holding his nose while gulping down castor oil, you can try to look past the brutal 4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and focus on the curative powers of LaRue's 41 extra-base hits. His .337 OBP, modest as it is, is also a career high, and his third straight year of improvement as a regular. LaRue's defense is another matter: Known for his ability to gun down would-be basestealers—he punched out an astounding 61% in 2001, 45% in 2002, winning Michael Wolverton's Golden Gun award for catchers both seasons—he's tossed out a more pedestrian 27% and 30% the last two seasons. Add it all up, and you get a player who's like anyone else—not nearly as good as his best moments, nor as bad as his worst. The Reds brought him back for $3 million, at the high end of what they should be willing to pay.

2003

BP’s 2001 Golden Gun winner hauled home the far less-coveted lead glove last year by allowing 20 passed balls, five more than any other NL team. Jared Fernandez wasn’t the sole culprit, since LaRue caught less than half of the knuckleballer’s 50 innings. Naturally, the miscues didn’t sit well with his seven-time Gold Glove–winning manager. Either LaRue or Kelly Stinnett will be leaving town to make room for Corky Miller. The Reds would prefer to keep LaRue, who is Stinnett’s equal offensively, but younger and cheaper.

2002

One element of the catcher’s job that gets overlooked is the difficulty of adapting to catching major-league-quality breaking stuff. How much of that does a catcher really see in the minors? How many of those breaking balls are thrown for strikes so that you can work on framing them effectively? LaRue has yet to fully make the adjustment, but he has improved. He’s rumored to be on the block, and his trade value will never get much higher than it is now.

2001

Jason LaRue got jobbed out of playing time when the Reds brought in Benito Santiago. Eddie Taubensee's big September in 1999 had buried LaRue as a starter, anyway. He'll be around for a while; think Brook Fordyce's career path.

2000

The injury to Brian Johnson brought him to the majors as Eddie Taubensee’s caddy, a role that fits him. He won’t hit enough to be a regular, so backing up a left-handed-hitting catcher who is below average defensively makes the most of what he does well. LaRue has no star value.

1999

We said last year that he needed a two-level jump this year to get noticed; he did it, and excelled at Double-A. Of course, we said the jump was doubtful, which shows what we know. The power increase was dramatic, and enough to make him a star behind the plate. Now the #1 catcher in the Reds' system, and a threat to Taubensee this summer.

1998

LaRue tied for the minor league lead with 50 doubles. Unfortunately he did it at age 23 in the Sally League, which dampens our enthusiasm significantly. He showed little power other than the doubles and the rest of his game is unspectacular. Needs about a two-level jump this year to get noticed; doubtful.


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