Justin Lehr

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Reds Depth Chart (updated: 03-19)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Spot Justin Lehr 33 6 4.66 1.43 36 12 5 17 2 2 0 3.0

1 2010 Total 33 6 4.66 1.43 36 12 5 17 2 2 0 3.0

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 3:33 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	7	5	0	29	15	104.7	103	33	59	9	49%	.280	5	1.30	3.94	0	4.15	8.8	2.5	4.4	0.7	18.2	2.4	2.8
75^o	6	6	0	30	14	98.0	104	32	54	10	48%	.291	1	1.39	4.55	0	4.78	9.5	2.6	4.3	0.9	9.9	1.6	1.9
60^o	5	6	0	30	13	91.0	105	31	49	12	48%	.303	-3	1.49	5.23	0	5.47	10.2	2.7	4.2	1.1	2.0	0.7	1.0
50^o	4	6	0	31	12	84.7	104	30	44	13	48%	.314	-6	1.58	5.89	0	6.12	10.9	2.8	4.1	1.3	-4.5	0.0	0.3
40^o	4	6	0	30	11	79.3	103	29	41	13	48%	.323	-9	1.66	6.43	0	6.66	11.6	2.9	4.0	1.5	-9.2	-0.5	-0.3
25^o	3	6	0	30	10	72.3	101	27	36	14	47%	.335	-13	1.77	7.22	0	7.43	12.4	3.0	3.9	1.7	-14.8	-1.0	-0.9
10^o	2	4	0	26	7	50.3	87	22	22	14	46%	.373	-26	2.15	10.00	0	10.10	15.4	3.4	3.5	2.5	-26.0	-2.2	-2.2
Weighted Mean	4	5	0	31	11	82.0	97	29	44	11	48%	.308	-5	1.53	5.51	0	5.75	10.6	2.7	4.1	1.2	-0.8	0.3	0.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
9%	31%	43%	30%	1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2009 (age 31)	4	5	0	31	11	82.0	97	29	44	11	48%	.308	-5	1.53	5.51	0	5.75	10.6	2.7	4.1	1.2	-0.8	0.3	0.5
2010 (age 32)	4	5	0	31	10	78.3	90	26	41	10	49%	.303	-6	1.49	5.18	0	5.41	10.3	2.7	4.1	1.1	1.5	0.6	0.5
2011 (age 33)	3	4	0	28	7	62.7	79	19	29	10	44%	.313	-11	1.57	5.82	0	6.00	11.3	2.4	3.6	1.4	-1.2	0.0	0.1
2012 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 36)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 37)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.273	.353	.428
vs RHB	.274	.340	.433
Split	-.002	+.013	-.005
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2009	0.5	$675,000	-2.0	3.6
2010	0.5	$900,000	0.8	3.2
2011	0.1	$450,000	-1.6	1.1
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak	1.3	$925,000	1.4	9.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	4.78	6.12	7.43	5.75
2010	4.89	5.79	7.46	5.41
2011	5.64	6.60	7.71	6.00
2012	-- out of baseball --
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	30%	0%	9%
2010	60%	39%	8%
2011	71%	58%	4%
2012	88%	78%	1%
2013	92%	87%	1%
2014	92%	90%	2%
2015	95%	94%	2%

66

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Tom Filer	1988	67		11	Tomo Ohka	2008	53
2	Dave Eiland	1998	67		12	Tom Brown	1981	53
3	Eddie Solomon	1983	62		13	Brian Tollberg	2004	52
4	John Desilva	1999	62		14	Terry Leach	1986	51
5	Wally Whitehurst	1996	61		15	Rod Bolton	2000	50
6	Brady Raggio	2004	61		16	Don Wengert	2001	49
7	Bruce Dal Canton	1974	56		17	Brian Keyser	1998	49
8	Jerry Reed	1987	55		18	Billy Muffett	1962	49
9	Adam Bernero	2008	55		19	Larry Luebbers	2001	49
10	John Buzhardt	1968	53		20	Joe Mays	2007	48

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Justin Lehr opened the year in the Brewer bullpen, but pitched his way down to Nashville after two months, only to be promoted to starting. The converted catcher isn`t making headway.

2006

`Panzer` might not be blitzing Poland anytime soon, let alone taking Nashville by storm. The Brewers will settle for letting him take his best shot at winning either the fifth starter`s job or a middle relief gig. If he`s been a moderately successful conversion project for a former catcher, that`s about as high as his ceiling is going to go.

2005

Another former position player turned pitcher, "Panzer" has a nifty power assortment: a mid-90s four-seam fastball, a mid-80s splitter he doesn't tip out of a sneaky delivery, and a solid curveball. Although the A's gave him a look, he never did get consistent work, so it was hard for him to settle in. He could become a much more significant asset in Milwaukee's pen than PECOTA's allowing for.

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Spot	Justin Lehr	33	6	4.66	1.43	36	12	5	17	2	2	0	3.0
1	2010 Total	33	6	4.66	1.43	36	12	5	17	2	2	0	3.0

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	DEF	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2006	NAS	AAA	4	7	0	19	17	112.1	120	31	90	15	51%	.307	-8	1.35	3.93	10	6.19	12.0	2.9	5.2	1.8	-6.6	0.0	0.5
2006	MIL	MLB	2	1	0	16	0	15.7	24	7	12	2	47%	.431	10	1.98	8.60	-6	4.80	14.4	3.6	6.6	1.2	-5.5	0.0	0.4
2007	TAC	AAA	7	1	1	27	17	119.7	132	41	61	8	49%	.316	-23	1.45	3.98	11	6.42	9.7	3.3	3.1	0.9	-10.5	0.0	0.3
2008	LOU	AAA	6	2	1	16	8	64.3	51	11	41	5	52%	.254	-16	0.96	2.10	12	4.55	8.0	1.8	3.8	1.1	6.9	0.0	1.6

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats