Jon Leicester

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:16 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	6	7	0	30	19	105.7	105	46	72	12	45%	.285	2	1.43	4.24	4.28	4.07	8.5	3.6	5.7	1.0	17.1	2.4	2.9
75^o	5	7	0	31	18	100.7	106	46	67	12	45%	.296	-2	1.51	4.83	4.72	4.63	9.1	3.7	5.6	1.1	9.2	1.6	2.1
60^o	4	7	0	32	17	93.3	107	45	60	13	45%	.310	-7	1.63	5.68	5.38	5.46	9.8	4.0	5.4	1.3	-1.0	0.5	1.0
50^o	3	7	0	32	16	88.3	107	44	56	14	45%	.320	-11	1.71	6.27	5.83	6.03	10.4	4.1	5.3	1.4	-7.1	-0.2	0.3
40^o	3	7	0	32	15	86.0	107	44	54	14	45%	.325	-12	1.75	6.57	6.06	6.32	10.7	4.2	5.3	1.4	-10.0	-0.5	0.0
25^o	2	7	0	33	14	76.7	105	42	46	14	45%	.343	-20	1.91	7.79	7.02	7.48	11.8	4.5	5.0	1.7	-19.9	-1.5	-1.0
10^o	2	6	0	32	11	64.0	101	39	36	14	45%	.369	-30	2.17	9.57	8.48	9.16	13.5	5.0	4.7	2.0	-30.0	-2.5	-2.1
Weighted Mean	3	6	0	28	13	73.7	86	36	47	11	45%	.314	-9	1.66	5.94	5.56	5.71	10.0	4.0	5.4	1.3	-3.6	0.1	0.8

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
36%	63%	16%	30%	1.08

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 29)	3	6	0	28	13	73.7	86	36	47	11	45%	.314	-9	1.66	5.94	5.56	5.71	10.0	4.0	5.4	1.3	-3.6	0.1	0.8
2009 (age 30)	3	6	1	36	12	81.0	94	40	51	11	45%	.311	-12	1.65	5.81	5.43	5.60	9.9	4.0	5.2	1.2	-1.7	0.2	0.6
2010 (age 31)	2	5	0	29	8	57.7	72	26	30	9	40%	.316	-19	1.70	6.18	5.85	5.90	10.7	3.7	4.3	1.4	-3.1	-0.1	0.3
2011 (age 32)	3	6	1	42	11	83.0	95	37	55	11	44%	.311	-9	1.58	5.63	5.18	5.42	9.8	3.6	5.6	1.2	-0.2	0.3	0.4
2012 (age 33)	2	5	1	33	8	61.3	72	31	39	9	45%	.314	-13	1.67	5.92	5.61	5.68	10.1	4.1	5.3	1.3	-1.0	0.0	0.2
2013 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.292	.404	.474
vs RHB	.267	.344	.407
Split	+.024	+.059	+.068
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.8	$850,000	-1.7	4.5
2009	0.6	$750,000	-0.3	3.3
2010	0.3	$525,000	-2.0	2.2
2011	0.4	$725,000	0.5	1.6
2012	0.2	$500,000	-0.4	0.9
2013	0.1	$425,000	-0.5	0.0
2014	0.0	$400,000	-1.5	0.3
Peak	2.5	$1,300,000	0.5	12.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.63	6.03	7.48	5.71
2009	4.59	5.76	7.77	5.60
2010	4.99	6.17	7.44	5.90
2011	5.07	5.65	6.51	5.42
2012	5.23	6.07	6.56	5.68
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	30%	0%	36%
2009	48%	28%	32%
2010	59%	35%	23%
2011	68%	61%	18%
2012	71%	62%	13%
2013	84%	70%	9%
2014	90%	76%	5%

73

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jason Middlebrook	2004	78		11	Brandon Duckworth	2005	63
2	Eric Junge	2006	73		12	Rod Nichols	1994	62
3	Shane Bowers	2000	71		13	Mike Oquist	1997	62
4	Jason Roach	2005	69		14	Steve Watkins	2007	62
5	Ron Chiavacci	2007	65		15	Terry Mathews	1994	62
6	Tom Shearn	2007	65		16	Brian Sweeney	2003	60
7	Mike Anderson	1995	64		17	Mike Walker	1994	60
8	Bryan Wolff	2001	63		18	Justin Lehr	2006	59
9	KEITH BROWN	1993	63		19	Dave Swartzbaugh	1997	59
10	Giovanni Carrara	1997	63		20	Barry Johnson	1999	59

Player Comments

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2006

Leicester`s always had a nice moving fastball that he occasionally dials up into the mid-90s, but he`s 27 now, and still hasn`t figured out the other stuff that might make him a good starting pitcher. He can`t consistently get a breaking pitch over for a swing-and-miss strike; minor league guru John Sickels has noted that he might be tipping his curve. Relief arms being comparatively easy to find, the Cubs decided they didn`t have room for Leicester, dealing him to Texas. He could become very useful.

2005

Leicester provided some quality relief innings at a time when the Cubs really needed them, but he's always projected as filler at the back end of a pitching staff, and that's how he'll end up without some unanticipated improvement in his command. Leicester also had a lot of trouble retiring left-handed hitters last year; while those things can be fluky, it would be hard to use him in high-leverage situations if the pattern persists.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	IOW	3A	3	8	1	24	16	98.0	115	42	73	17	50%	.326	-16	1.60	5.51	7.04	6.53	10.8	4.2	4.7	1.8	-9.5		0.6
2005	CHN	MJ	0	2	0	6	1	9.0	11	9	7	2	54%	.360	-45	2.22	9.00	13.92	11.88	11.9	8.6	6.5	2.2	-4.3	-0.3	-0.7
2006	OKL	3A	0	1	0	2	2	9.1	17	3	7	0	51%	.500	-20	2.20	9.89	13.96	15.75	20.2	3.4	5.6	0.0	-9.0		-0.8
2007	ORI	0R	0	0	0	2	2	4.0	3	2	7	0	50%	.375	-4	1.25	2.25	7.19	5.40	10.8	8.1	8.1	0.0	0.1		0.0
2007	ABE	1A	0	0	0	2	2	5.7	7	2	6	0	63%	.438	-11	1.58	3.16	9.93	6.23	16.6	6.2	6.2	0.0	-0.3		0.0
2007	NOR	3A	3	3	0	13	11	65.0	48	22	54	5	46%	.257	5	1.08	2.22	4.12	3.90	7.5	3.6	5.7	1.2	11.3		2.0
2007	BAL	MJ	2	3	0	10	5	32.0	36	13	16	3	39%	.306	-11	1.53	7.59	4.75	6.96	9.5	3.1	4.2	0.8	-5.6	0.4	0.1

Historical Stats