Jon Lester

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Projected Playing Time
Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Starter-4 Jon Lester 140 28 5.04 1.58 149 71 15 101 7 8 0 10.1

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 11:17 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	11	7	0	29	29	162.3	149	74	122	14	43%	.280	15	1.37	3.58	3.75	3.52	7.8	3.7	6.2	0.8	40.0	5.2	5.3
75^o	9	8	0	28	28	147.7	147	71	109	15	42%	.293	11	1.47	4.29	4.31	4.19	8.4	3.9	6.1	0.9	24.2	3.5	3.7
60^o	8	8	0	26	26	133.0	142	68	96	15	42%	.306	7	1.58	5.03	4.89	4.89	9.1	4.2	6.0	1.0	10.4	2.1	2.3
50^o	7	8	0	33	23	127.0	140	66	91	15	42%	.312	1	1.62	5.35	5.14	5.19	9.4	4.3	5.9	1.0	5.2	1.4	1.8
40^o	6	8	0	33	22	120.3	137	64	85	15	42%	.318	-1	1.67	5.71	5.43	5.53	9.7	4.4	5.8	1.1	-0.1	0.8	1.2
25^o	5	8	0	32	19	105.0	129	60	73	15	42%	.332	-6	1.79	6.56	6.10	6.32	10.4	4.7	5.7	1.3	-10.4	-0.3	0.1
10^o	3	7	0	29	16	84.0	114	52	56	14	41%	.351	-14	1.97	7.82	7.10	7.49	11.5	5.0	5.5	1.5	-20.4	-1.5	-1.1
Weighted Mean	7	8	0	34	23	128.0	137	65	92	15	42%	.307	3	1.58	5.04	4.89	4.90	9.1	4.2	6.0	1.0	9.2	1.8	2.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
10%	30%	40%	28%	1.21

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 24)	7	8	0	34	23	128.0	137	65	92	15	42%	.307	3	1.58	5.04	4.89	4.90	9.1	4.2	6.0	1.0	9.2	1.8	2.3
2009 (age 25)	7	8	0	38	20	121.7	133	60	86	14	42%	.308	-2	1.59	5.24	5.01	5.10	9.3	4.1	5.8	1.0	5.6	1.4	1.8
2010 (age 26)	7	8	0	44	20	127.3	141	66	87	15	42%	.309	-5	1.62	5.37	5.14	5.22	9.4	4.2	5.6	1.1	3.8	1.2	1.6
2011 (age 27)	7	7	1	42	18	122.0	132	54	84	14	42%	.306	-1	1.52	4.98	4.75	4.84	9.2	3.6	5.7	1.0	8.6	1.7	2.0
2012 (age 28)	7	8	1	44	18	123.0	135	57	83	15	42%	.304	-4	1.55	5.24	4.92	5.10	9.3	3.8	5.5	1.1	4.6	1.3	1.4
2013 (age 29)	4	5	0	34	11	79.3	92	37	52	11	42%	.315	-7	1.63	5.60	5.35	5.42	9.9	3.9	5.5	1.2	0.8	0.5	0.8
2014 (age 30)	2	3	0	18	6	42.7	47	18	28	5	44%	.306	-5	1.53	4.97	4.84	4.84	9.4	3.5	5.4	1.0	5.3	0.5	1.2

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.255	.350	.405
vs RHB	.262	.366	.418
Split	-.008	-.015	-.013
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	2.3	$4,100,000	9.8	13.9
2009	1.8	$3,050,000	6.2	8.9
2010	1.6	$2,650,000	4.4	9.8
2011	2.0	$4,425,000	9.1	12.2
2012	1.4	$2,950,000	5.0	8.6
2013	0.8	$1,400,000	1.2	4.8
2014	1.2	$3,075,000	5.5	4.7
Peak	9.9	$13,900,000	34.3	58.2

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.19	5.19	6.32	4.90
2009	4.43	5.29	6.71	5.10
2010	4.24	5.42	6.95	5.22
2011	4.14	4.89	6.43	4.84
2012	4.39	5.51	7.07	5.10
2013	4.48	6.25	7.28	5.42
2014	4.67	5.09	6.37	4.84

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	28%	0%	10%
2009	36%	6%	6%
2010	39%	11%	8%
2011	38%	16%	10%
2012	53%	26%	6%
2013	59%	33%	4%
2014	71%	38%	2%

65

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Arthur Rhodes	1994	65		11	Bob Knepper	1978	51
2	Dave LaPoint	1984	60		12	Dan Meyer	2005	50
3	Casey Fossum	2002	59		13	Chuck Stobbs	1953	49
4	Allen Watson	1995	58		14	Rich Hand	1973	49
5	Dan Serafini	1998	57		15	Ken Holtzman	1970	49
6	Scott Aldred	1992	56		16	Glen Perkins	2007	49
7	Ed Yarnall	2000	55		17	Randy Wolf	2001	49
8	C.J. Nitkowski	1997	53		18	Pat Combs	1991	48
9	Bob Owchinko	1979	53		19	Rod Henderson	1995	48
10	Pete Falcone	1978	53		20	Bill Travers	1977	48

Player Comments

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2007

After dominating the Eastern League in 2005, Lester was held in higher regard than even Jonathan Papelbon. Nonetheless, expectations that he would contribute in 2006 were tempered by his lack of experience above Double-A and concerns about overtaxing his arm. Pitching well on a short leash at Pawtucket, he got the call when the injury bug bit in June, and ran off a string of seven starts in which he allowed no more than two runs, lowering his ERA to 2.38 with eight shutout innings in the last of them. Then things unraveled; he was shellacked in five of his next six starts before sustaining a back strain in a car accident. While treating the injury, doctors diagnosed Lester with anaplastic large cell lymphoma, a treatable type of cancer. Thanks to chemotherapy, he was in remission by mid-December and planning to be ready for spring training. Like the rest of the baseball world, we wish him good health and eagerly await his return, no matter the timeframe.

2006

The best pitcher in the Eastern League last year. He led the circuit in ERA and strikeouts and is one of the best pitching prospects in the game. A 2^nd-round selection out of high school in 2002, Lester throws two fastballs in the low 90s, a big curve, and a changeup. A great organizational success story, he has improved at each level, adding speed on his fastball and a new cutter while maintaining his control. Had the Manny-for-A-Rod deal gone through, Lester would have headed to the Rangers. The Red Sox hope that some day he is part of the calculus when evaluating the non-deal. Will start the year in Pawtucket but might not need a full season there.

2005

The last top pick before the new Red Sox regime, Lester came straight out of high school but has managed to avoid any serious injuries so far, though he did suffer from some shoulder tightness in June. The Sox feel that he developed enough physically and mentally in '04 that they can begin to push him a little harder. Armed with a new cutter, a little extra gas on his 93-mph fastball and improved breaking pitches, Lester will be in Double-A in 2005 and is still on track for the big leagues soon after that.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	PME	2A	11	6	0	26	26	148.3	114	57	163	10	48%	.291	8	1.15	2.61	4.84	4.48	8.5	4.9	6.4	1.0	16.5		4.2
2006	PAW	3A	3	4	0	11	11	46.0	43	25	43	5	44%	.290	-4	1.48	2.74	5.82	4.43	9.1	5.6	6.0	1.4	5.8		1.6
2006	BOS	MJ	7	2	0	15	15	81.3	91	43	60	7	41%	.347	10	1.65	4.76	4.98	4.18	9.5	4.5	6.3	0.7	12.3	1.7	2.5
2007	GRN	1B	0	0	0	3	3	13.0	11	2	15	2	50%	.290	0	1.00	2.08	6.46	3.86	9.3	3.1	6.2	2.3	2.3		0.2
2007	PME	2A	1	0	0	1	1	6.0	5	4	4	0	32%	.263	-5	1.50	1.50	4.09	1.50	7.5	6.0	3.0	0.0	2.7		0.4
2007	PAW	3A	4	5	0	14	14	71.7	67	31	51	4	46%	.296	-2	1.37	3.89	4.85	4.68	9.2	4.4	4.7	0.8	6.9		2.0
2007	BOS	MJ	4	0	0	12	11	63.0	61	31	50	10	36%	.288	8	1.46	4.57	5.23	4.52	8.9	3.9	6.7	1.5	9.0	1.2	1.4

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats