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Jose Lopez
Seattle Mariners [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Second Base
Bats R
Age 24
6'
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Mariners Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
2B 8 Jose Lopez 85 535 .262 52 9 56 4 .299 .379 4.9
1   2008 Total 85 535 .262 52 9 56 4 .299 .379 4.9

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 TAC 3A 194 29 19 0 5 31 8 25 2 3 -0.3 .319 .354 .505 .229 .286 .316 .449 .255 8.1 44-2B -5 1.1
2005 SEA MJ 203 18 19 0 2 25 6 25 4 2 -1.3 .247 .282 .379 -.150 .262 .303 .406 .246 -1.2 50-2B 1 1.2
2006 SEA MJ 655 78 28 8 10 79 26 80 5 2 -1.9 .282 .319 .405 -.058 .290 .332 .426 .262 18.3 148-2B -11 3.6
2007 SEA MJ 561 58 17 2 11 62 20 64 2 3 -2.0 .252 .284 .355 -.189 .265 .301 .384 .235 -9.7 139-2B 5 3.1


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:22 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 588 75 33 3 16 71 29 68 6 3 -0.4 .294 .335 .454 .052 .297 .338 .483 .282 33.8 138-2B 3 5.8
75o 528 55 26 2 11 59 24 64 5 3 -0.3 .272 .311 .403 -.073 .275 .314 .429 .259 14.0 124-2B 1 3.8
60o 498 47 23 2 9 53 22 61 4 2 -0.3 .262 .299 .379 -.132 .265 .303 .404 .247 5.9 118-2B 0 2.9
50o 483 43 22 2 8 51 20 60 4 2 -0.3 .257 .294 .368 -.161 .260 .297 .391 .241 2.3 114-2B -1 2.5
40o 467 39 21 2 7 48 19 59 4 2 -0.3 .252 .288 .356 -.191 .255 .291 .378 .235 -1.2 111-2B -1 2.1
25o 442 34 18 1 6 44 18 57 4 2 -0.2 .244 .279 .338 -.235 .247 .282 .359 .225 -6.0 105-2B -2 1.6
10o 359 20 12 1 2 31 13 48 3 2 -0.2 .221 .253 .284 -.367 .223 .255 .302 .192 -16.6 86-2B -3 0.1
Weighted Mean 544 53 26 2 10 57 24 67 5 3 -0.3 .262 .299 .379 -.132 .265 .303 .404 .246 4.9 128-2B 0 3.5

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

18%

38%

29%

16%

0.94

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 544 53 26 2 10 57 24 67 5 3 -0.3 .262 .299 .379 -.132 .265 .303 .404 .246 4.9 128-2B 0 3.5
2009 (age 25) 530 55 26 2 11 59 23 63 5 3 -0.3 .272 .310 .398 -.082 .279 .318 .432 .256 10.6 125-2B 1 3.4
2010 (age 26) 537 56 26 2 10 58 27 65 5 2 -0.3 .272 .314 .394 -.081 .279 .322 .427 .257 10.5 126-2B 2 3.4
2011 (age 27) 500 50 25 2 10 55 26 61 4 2 -0.3 .268 .311 .394 -.089 .275 .319 .427 .256 8.7 118-2B 0 3.0
2012 (age 28) 495 50 24 2 10 56 25 58 4 2 -0.3 .269 .311 .393 -.089 .276 .320 .426 .256 8.3 117-2B -2 2.7
2013 (age 29) 428 40 21 1 9 48 24 51 3 2 -0.3 .267 .312 .395 -.086 .274 .320 .428 .257 7.4 102-2B -3 2.3
2014 (age 30) 396 36 19 1 9 45 22 46 3 1 -0.3 .266 .312 .397 -.085 .273 .320 .430 .257 6.9 95-2B -3 2.1

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .277 .319 .403
vs RHP .257 .292 .366
Split +.020 +.027 +.037
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 0.8 2.7 3.5 $5,875,000 7.7 7.7
2009 1.2 2.2 3.4 $7,075,000 14.0 14.6
2010 1.2 2.2 3.4 $7,725,000 14.3 16.3
2011 1.1 1.9 3.0 $6,750,000 11.3 13.2
2012 1.0 1.7 2.7 $6,300,000 9.3 12.6
2013 0.9 1.4 2.3 $5,425,000 7.5 10.3
2014 0.8 1.3 2.1 $5,350,000 6.8 8.7
Peak 18.2 $30,675,000 64.0 75.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .259 .241 .225 .246
2009 .273 .252 .226 .256
2010 .270 .249 .225 .257
2011 .272 .242 .224 .256
2012 .270 .243 .224 .256
2013 .277 .251 .228 .257
2014 .270 .243 .227 .257


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 16% 0% 18%
2009 27% 5% 34%
2010 22% 9% 29%
2011 30% 12% 27%
2012 36% 18% 25%
2013 45% 23% 32%
2014 52% 24% 26%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Jose Lopez finished the season with a performance that was achingly similar to that of his double-play partner, Betancourt, right down to the disappointing defensive numbers. Lopez`s power disappeared after the All-Star break; his second-half isolated power was a mere .051 compared to .174 prior to the midsummer classic. That finish gave him the distinction of concluding the season with the lowest WARP total of any Mariner All-Star ever. The only man who came close to Lopez`s 2.0 WARP was Jeffrey Leonard, who posted a 2.5 WARP in 1989, when his gaudy home run and RBI totals at the half convinced Tony La Russa to put the DH with a .319 OBP on the squad, even though Leonard`s teammate Alvin Davis had a better slugging percentage and an OBP more than 100 points higher. Lopez`s EqA was the lowest for a Mariner All-Star since Harold Reynolds (.246) in 1987. On the positive side, Lopez just turned 23 in November, so there`s still a chance for him to develop into a legitimate All-Star.

2005

We've expressed some doubts about Lopez's age in the past, but it now seems legit. He was overmatched after his promotion as the team disintegrated from injuries and inept management. Defensively, he's weak on the routine plays, blowing catches of easy grounders and throwing balls into the stands. His long term future is at second, and hey—Boone's contract runs out this year.


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