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Rodrigo Lopez
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 33
6' 1"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Spot Rodrigo Lopez 16 3 5.11 1.44 36 9 4 20 2 2 0 0.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 BAL MLB 9 18 0 36 29 189.0 234 59 136 32 45% .333 19 1.55 5.90 -7 5.49 10.5 2.7 5.7 1.4 -0.7 1.5 2.7
2007 CSP AAA 1 0 0 2 2 11.3 4 3 4 0 45% .121 -13 0.62 2.39 6 4.76 2.4 2.4 1.6 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.2
2007 COL MLB 5 4 0 14 14 79.3 83 21 43 11 49% .288 11 1.31 4.43 -1 3.91 9.1 2.1 4.7 1.1 10.6 1.5 2.5
2008 BRA Rk 0 0 0 2 2 3.0 2 0 4 0 71% .286 27 0.67 0.00 0 0.00 10.1 0.0 6.8 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.1
2008 ROM A 0 1 0 1 1 2.0 8 2 1 2 31% .600 -276 5.00 40.50 -1 67.50 60.8 13.5 0.0 27.0 -8.9 0.0 -3.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/12/09 7:11 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 4 0 23 12 90.7 86 25 60 10 46% .269 9 1.22 3.47 0 3.60 8.4 2.2 5.1 1.0 21.5 2.6 3.0
75o 5 4 0 23 11 81.7 85 24 53 11 46% .288 6 1.34 4.36 0 4.53 9.3 2.3 5.0 1.2 10.7 1.5 1.8
60o 4 4 0 22 10 76.3 84 24 50 11 46% .298 3 1.41 4.88 0 5.07 9.8 2.4 5.0 1.3 5.2 0.9 1.2
50o 4 5 0 22 10 71.0 83 23 46 11 46% .309 1 1.48 5.45 0 5.66 10.4 2.5 5.0 1.4 0.0 0.4 0.6
40o 3 4 0 21 9 67.0 81 22 43 11 45% .317 0 1.54 5.89 0 6.11 10.8 2.6 5.0 1.4 -3.5 0.0 0.2
25o 2 4 0 19 7 55.0 75 20 35 11 45% .342 -6 1.72 7.29 0 7.53 12.1 2.8 4.9 1.7 -11.9 -0.8 -0.7
10o 1 2 0 12 4 29.0 50 12 18 8 45% .394 -18 2.15 10.72 0 10.99 15.4 3.3 4.7 2.3 -17.8 -1.5 -1.6
Weighted Mean 3 3 0 17 7 54.3 60 17 35 8 46% .299 2 1.41 4.95 0 5.14 9.9 2.4 5.0 1.3 4.0 0.6 0.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

28%

52%

29%

50%

1.11

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 33) 3 3 0 17 7 54.3 60 17 35 8 46% .299 2 1.41 4.95 0 5.14 9.9 2.4 5.0 1.3 4.0 0.6 0.9
2010 (age 34) 5 5 1 29 10 85.7 94 26 55 12 46% .299 1 1.40 4.70 0 4.88 9.8 2.3 5.0 1.2 4.3 1.1 0.8
2011 (age 35) 3 4 0 23 6 58.7 72 18 35 9 42% .321 -3 1.54 5.43 0 5.59 11.0 2.4 4.6 1.3 0.2 0.3 0.2
2012 (age 36)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .269 .346 .435
vs RHB .264 .325 .426
Split +.006 +.021 +.008
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 0.9 $1,275,000 3.1 6.2
2010 0.8 $1,375,000 3.8 4.8
2011 0.2 $700,000 -0.2 1.7
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 2.6 $2,650,000 9.4 17.3


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 4.53 5.66 7.53 5.14
2010 4.39 4.89 6.61 4.88
2011 5.09 6.32 8.38 5.59
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 50% 0% 28%
2010 64% 44% 26%
2011 76% 52% 10%
2012 85% 72% 12%
2013 92% 81% 8%
2014 95% 94% 8%
2015 96% 96% 4%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

48

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Hank Borowy 1949 43 11 Odell Jones 1986 34
2 Russ Meyer 1957 41 12 Warren Hacker 1958 33
3 Bud Podbielan 1957 40 13 Saul Rogovin 1957 33
4 Tom Sturdivant 1963 40 14 Randy Gumpert 1951 33
5 Dick Donovan 1961 39 15 Bob Muncrief 1949 32
6 Ike Delock 1963 38 16 Marty Pattin 1976 32
7 Art Ditmar 1962 36 17 Jim Wilson 1955 31
8 Tom Gorman 1958 36 18 Denny Lemaster 1972 30
9 Bob Porterfield 1957 35 19 Earl Harrist 1953 30
10 Jack Kramer 1951 34 20 Dave Schmidt 1990 30

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Clint Hurdle issued the fourth most intentional walks in the majors last year, which means you have to consider the IBB column when evaluating his pitchers. Nearly 40 percent of Lopez's 21 walks allowed were intentional, meaning his true K/BB ratio was better than 3-to-1, and his walk rate was below two per nine innings. That would have been a nice hook for his free agent pitch this winter, but two surgeries on his arm-to repair a torn flexor tendon and his ulnar collateral ligament-will keep him out until 2009.

2007

Lopez led the AL in earned runs allowed last year, joining past winners such as Jose Lima, Sidney Ponson, and Tanyon Sturtze. When the slider doesn`t bite anymore, you`ve got problems; when you`ve always relied on it as your out-pitch, those problems potentially become career-ending.

2006

Although on the one hand it looks like Lopez has followed an up-down pattern for the last four years, his peripheral ERAs over that time have all been between 4.30 and 4.90. Fundamentally, he`s an average pitcher, reliant on off-speed stuff and heavily dependent on location. That isn`t all bad, of course. Often it`s quite handy.

2005

The Orioles elected to start 2004 with a young rotation that included rookies Ainsworth, Bedard, and Riley, with Rodrigo Lopez left in the bullpen. With some grumbling, Lopez did his job, first becoming their best reliever, then stepping into the rotation when injuries hit to become their best starter. Back on the mound at the start of games, his performance was reminiscent of his almost-Rookie of the Year 2002 season. He won't have to grouse this spring; Lopez and Ponson are the only two starters who can comfortably claim to be starting in Baltimore in '05.

2003

It is certainly possible that the Orioles’ late swoon cost Lopez the Rookie of the Year award. However, he was part of the problem down the stretch, going 1–4 with a 5.80 ERA after going 14–5, 3.36 beforehand. More basically, where did he come from? Mexico, and no, that’s not a joke. San Diego released him after an injury-plagued 2001, even though he’d pitched well at Portland. He then had one of the best Winter League seasons of 2001, going 10–2 for Culiacan in the Mexican Pacific League, which doesn’t reflect his 5–0 record in the playoffs. In all, Lopez threw about 110 innings in winter ball, followed by 197 more in the 2002 season, and simply wore out. He’s not supposed to pitch for Culiacan this year, although he did pitch for the All-Star team in Japan.

2001

Rodrigo Lopez took a couple of turns through the revolving door before getting booted, and he wasn’t really successful. Then again, we’re talking about three games, including one in which he pitched well and another in which a bunch of guys hit seeing-eye grounders and soft drives that fell in front of charging outfielders. Having to evaluate pitchers on the fly is a tough job.


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