|
2007 Lowell was supposed to be the poison pill in the Josh Beckett trade, with the Sox taking on the remaining two years and $18 million of his contract. Moving to Fenway, he figured to improve superficially, and with Kevin Youkilis still available to slot in across the diamond, the Sox might have leveraged Lowell`s resuscitated value into a midseason trade. But after a hot start (.317/.373/.565 through May), Lowell cooled off considerably (.269/.323/.432) and was left to play out the string far from any pennant race. Still, he posted a stellar season in the field; even if he continues his more modest hitting, the leather helps him maintain some value. 2006 Now with the Red Sox, the big question is if last year`s season-long slump was, as Lowell contends, a crisis of confidence, or a sign of deteriorating reflexes. While most players as good as Lowell don`t just suddenly pack it in at age 31, it has been known to happen--Kevin McReynolds had his last good year at 30, Dale Murphy at 31. One good sign was that whatever weakness Lowell had with the stick, his glove was still handy. Should he snap back to form, the Red Sox will get a player whose production is quite similar to what they got from Bill Mueller, with an increase in home runs compensating for the losses in walks and average. 2005 He exercised his "stadium option" in October, then agreed to stay in Florida for the next three years, being guaranteed $25.5 million over that time. His deal looks like a bargain when you consider what Corey Koskie—inferior, fragile—and Troy Glaus—comparable, fragile—signed for over the winter. Other than the fluke injury in '03, Lowell has been durable. He'll settle in at a level just below his '03-'04 peak and be a championship-caliber player for a team less than that. 2003 He batted .330/.388/.542 over the first two months of the season and spent the rest of the year reverting to the mean. Lowell’s a Miami native and a solid plus at the hot corner, but the Marlins are looking at trading him for a younger, cheaper model this off-season. With the Red Sox looking to deal Shea Hillenbrand, that’s a potential recipe for disaster. 2002 See Derrek Lee. It's not quite as bad, in that Lowell has less service time than Lee, so he's less expensive and his offense—comparable to Lee's—is more valuable at third base. Lowell is comparable to Tim Wallach in his prime, an above-average hitter and good defender. The Marlins need a couple of their young veterans—Lowell, Lee, Alex Gonzalez, Preston Wilson—to take it up a notch. 2001 Mike Lowell played the final four months of 1999 at less than 100% after beating testicular cancer. His strength returned last year and he emerged as the third sacker the team envisioned when they acquired him from the Yankees. Lowell is rock solid in all facets of the game, and though he’ll never be mistaken for Troy Glaus, he will be a valuable contributor to the next good Marlins’ club. Since last year’s Wilton was dead-on, I’m not going to disagree with this year's projection. 2000 While Lowell has some power and can play third base, he’s not special enough to be worth Ed Yarnall. That move was Dave Dombrowski’s one misstep during this rebuilding process; given the pitchers he’s picked up since then, it shouldn’t be fatal. Lowell goes into camp as the starting third baseman after the Kevin Orie trade, and that Wilton looks accurate. 1999 Screwed, and now must go to bed every night rooting for Scott Brosius' evil twin to return. Actually, he's likely to be elsewhere by the time you read this, as his trade value is peaking and he has almost no value to the Yankees. Some enterprising team can get themselves a cheap six-year solution at third base if they're quick. Will hit about like Tim Wallach and play average defense; that will push a lot of teams towards a championship. 1998 Lowell came out of nowhere to obliterate the Eastern League for two months before a promotion to Columbus. The organization is impressed with both his performance and with the effort he’s put in to add muscle and power. With the Yankee third base situation up in the air, Lowell has a good chance to come in and win a job. Even if 1997 is a fluke, he could settle in as a Dean Palmer-type third baseman for 1/25th the cost. 1997 He’s not much of a third base prospect, but the Yankees are so thin at the position he actually looks halfway decent. Still two years away from any chance at a job.
|