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Julio Lugo
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats R
Age 32
6' 1"
175 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
SS 9 Julio Lugo 75 476 .274 59 5 43 19 .336 .384 11.4
1   2008 Total 75 476 .274 59 5 43 19 .336 .384 11.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 TBA MJ 690 89 36 6 6 57 61 72 39 11 4.5 .295 .362 .403 .059 .310 .385 .432 .290 42.5 153-SS 10 8.2
2006 TBA MJ 322 53 17 1 12 27 27 47 18 4 1.2 .308 .373 .498 .184 .311 .382 .521 .306 31.3 71-SS 0 4.1
2006 LAN MJ 164 16 5 1 0 10 12 29 6 5 0.0 .219 .278 .267 -.348 .226 .288 .274 .203 -10.3 18-2B 2 0.3
2007 BOS MJ 630 71 36 2 8 73 48 82 33 6 -0.5 .237 .294 .349 -.208 .235 .299 .361 .240 -1.3 138-SS -12 2.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:28 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 568 95 35 3 8 57 51 70 24 8 1.7 .311 .376 .443 .118 .303 .372 .452 .294 39.0 133-SS -4 6.0
75o 529 78 31 3 7 51 46 67 22 7 1.5 .295 .359 .417 .043 .287 .355 .426 .281 26.9 124-SS -4 4.8
60o 485 63 26 3 6 45 40 64 20 7 1.3 .278 .340 .389 -.039 .270 .337 .398 .266 15.4 115-SS -4 3.7
50o 459 54 23 2 5 41 37 62 19 6 1.2 .268 .329 .373 -.087 .260 .326 .381 .257 9.3 109-SS -4 3.1
40o 435 48 21 2 4 38 34 59 18 6 1.1 .259 .319 .358 -.130 .252 .316 .366 .249 4.4 103-SS -4 2.5
25o 405 40 19 2 4 34 30 56 17 5 1.0 .247 .307 .340 -.181 .241 .303 .348 .238 -0.8 97-SS -4 1.9
10o 358 30 15 2 3 29 25 52 15 5 0.8 .231 .288 .314 -.258 .225 .285 .321 .222 -7.2 86-SS -4 1.2
Weighted Mean 501 64 26 3 6 47 41 66 21 7 1.2 .274 .336 .384 -.055 .267 .333 .392 .263 12.3 118-SS -2 4.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

24%

45%

26%

17%

0.96

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 32) 501 64 26 3 6 47 41 66 21 7 1.2 .274 .336 .384 -.055 .267 .333 .392 .263 12.3 118-SS -2 4.2
2009 (age 33) 464 57 25 3 5 44 37 60 20 6 1.0 .271 .333 .380 -.069 .267 .334 .395 .261 9.4 110-SS -4 2.8
2010 (age 34) 429 50 23 2 5 41 36 59 19 5 0.8 .268 .333 .379 -.071 .264 .335 .394 .262 7.5 102-SS -4 2.4
2011 (age 35) 352 37 19 2 4 36 29 47 14 4 0.6 .269 .333 .380 -.069 .266 .335 .396 .261 5.9 85-SS -6 1.7
2012 (age 36) 269 25 16 1 3 25 21 36 10 3 0.4 .273 .334 .383 -.061 .270 .336 .398 .261 4.0 66-SS -7 1.0
2013 (age 37) 265 24 13 1 3 25 22 37 11 3 0.2 .262 .327 .363 -.107 .258 .329 .377 .254 1.6 65-SS -7 0.6
2014 (age 38) 315 28 15 1 3 32 22 43 9 3 0.2 .253 .311 .345 -.164 .250 .313 .359 .239 0.2 76-SS -7 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .287 .353 .405
vs RHP .270 .329 .371
Split +.017 +.024 +.035
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.5 2.6 4.2 $8,075,000 14.0 16.5
2009 1.2 1.7 2.8 $5,350,000 9.4 10.6
2010 1.0 1.4 2.4 $4,525,000 7.7 8.2
2011 0.7 1.0 1.7 $3,175,000 4.8 6.0
2012 0.5 0.5 1.0 $1,625,000 1.8 4.0
2013 0.2 0.3 0.6 $975,000 0.5 0.8
2014 0.1 0.4 0.4 $775,000 -0.4 1.0
Peak 12.6 $19,250,000 38.1 46.2


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .281 .257 .238 .263
2009 .272 .252 .233 .261
2010 .271 .256 .229 .262
2011 .270 .251 .238 .261
2012 .273 .247 .225 .261
2013 .263 .242 .228 .254
2014 .248 .231 .216 .239


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 17% 0% 24%
2009 36% 9% 17%
2010 52% 25% 13%
2011 59% 37% 12%
2012 78% 53% 9%
2013 86% 66% 6%
2014 88% 74% 1%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The timing of Lugo`s departure from the Devil Rays had been the subject of speculation for more than a year. Given the injury concerns about the entire Dodger infield, going out and getting him was an entirely reasonable move on Ned Colletti`s part, even if he did part with former top prospect Joel Guzman to do it. Playing out of position at second, third, and in the outfield and hampered by an injured finger, Lugo didn`t hit, and he certainly didn`t embrace his utility role. None of that meant much in December, when Boston signed him to a four-year, $36-million deal to be their everyday shortstop.

2006

One of the few examples of an astute pick-up by the Devil Rays. Lugo was signed after the Astros peremptorily released him in reaction to his arrest for perpetrating a misdemeanor assault on his wife. Lugo was later acquitted, and the Rays had gotten a decent player with little effort and no cost. Lugo had by far the best year of his career in 2005, but much of the improvement was fueled by Lugo`s 20-point surge in batting average; his isolated power dropped to .107, a career low. Such increases by 29-year-olds rarely last. Lugo has a steady glove, and if his bat is nothing special, it doesn`t hurt. In short, he`s neutral--a team can easily do worse, or better.

2005

The Rays are expected to go into spring 2005 with three players whose careers have been primarily spent at shortstop: Cantu, Upton, and Lugo. Cantu will almost certainly slide to second base. The more interesting decision is what they will do about Lugo and Upton. Lugo is a solid option at shortstop, but he's not going make All-Star games or lead a team to the playoffs. He is one of Lou Piniella's favorite players, which gives him an edge. Upton may go back to Durham to work on defense; a lineup with both Lugo and Upton in it is also possible.

2003

They’ve never been happy with Lugo’s glovework down in Houston, and his key errors in the 2001 NLDS were the last straw. It’s not often the incumbent outplays the challengers in all phases of the game in spring training and loses his job, but it happened to Lugo last March. He got it back only after Everett couldn’t toe the Mendoza Line. The Astros need to accept Lugo’s shortcomings and recognize he’s their best near-term solution at shortstop. Entering his age 27 season, he could surprise some people this year.

2002

Despite dramatic improvements in Lugo's defense this year, his long-term future isn’t at shortstop. He has a good arm, but he’s never had exceptional footwork, and the Astros have had him play the outfield in spring training in previous seasons. Like Jose Hernandez, there’s a chance that he’s never going to be appreciated for what he is, either in the field or at the plate.

2001

The trade for Adam Everett was a fairly explicit vote-of-no-confidence in Julio Lugo’s defensive ability, since he is clearly a better hitter than Everett. But when Everett showed up in March swinging a wet newspaper, the Astros had little choice but to give Lugo a chance. He did exactly what he needed to do: hit well enough to overshadow his problems in the field. He’s never going to be a great shortstop, but teams need to stop acting like they play on Lake Wobegon and that every shortstop is capable of above-average defense. With Lugo, Everett, Ensberg, Ginter, Spiers, Biggio, and Chris Truby stuffed into three positions, the Astros may be deeper on the infield than they are in the outfield.

2000

While it’s fairly common to see top prospects skip Triple-A on their way to the majors, Lugo is a less-publicized prospect who may still be ready for the major leagues this season. His numbers have improved steadily as he has climbed the ladder, and his ability to add power while making the jump to Double-A was impressive, especially since he suffered a series of annoying injuries during the season. He has great defensive range even though he still makes too many errors; it’s generally easier to teach a prospect to make the routine play than to make the difficult one. I’m in the minority, but I think if the Astros give him a chance to win the shortstop job, he’ll do so and be a contributor in 2000.

1999

The Astros had three fine shortstop prospects - Lugo, Jhonny Perez and Carlos Guillen - which forced Lugo to repeat a level. He had another fine year, and after Guillen was traded Lugo was promoted to help the Zephyrs win the Triple-A World Series. Speed is his game, with 14 triples and 51 stolen bases, but he’s not a weakling and draws a fair number of walks, so he can contribute in several ways. He needs to come on fast this season if he wants to win the coming battle with Perez for the starting job, but he has the edge defensively.

1998

Lugo tends to get lost in the shuffle of the Astros’ various shortstops, but he may be the most complete player of the group, both offensively and defensively. He also hasn’t had the injury problems that Guillen and Perez have endured.


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