Marcus McBeth

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Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Reds Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP

Long Marcus McBeth 50 0 4.54 1.40 49 20 7 38 2 2 2 6.2

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:03 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	3	4	57	2	60.0	53	22	47	7	38%	.263	3	1.24	3.12	3.62	3.05	7.7	3.0	6.3	1.0	17.5	1.7	2.5
75^o	3	3	3	51	2	53.0	50	21	41	7	38%	.273	-1	1.34	3.95	4.25	3.88	8.3	3.2	6.2	1.2	10.4	1.0	1.7
60^o	2	3	2	46	1	47.7	48	20	36	8	38%	.281	-5	1.41	4.61	4.76	4.55	8.8	3.4	6.1	1.4	5.6	0.5	1.1
50^o	2	3	2	45	1	46.0	47	19	35	8	37%	.284	-6	1.44	4.83	4.93	4.77	8.9	3.4	6.1	1.4	4.2	0.4	1.0
40^o	2	2	1	41	1	41.7	45	18	31	8	37%	.290	-9	1.50	5.39	5.36	5.32	9.3	3.6	6.0	1.6	1.2	0.1	0.6
25^o	1	2	1	33	0	31.7	37	15	23	7	37%	.305	-16	1.66	6.78	6.44	6.70	10.3	3.9	5.8	1.9	-4.2	-0.4	0.0
10^o	0	1	0	14	0	14.0	19	8	10	4	35%	.330	-29	1.94	9.48	8.41	9.37	12.1	4.5	5.4	2.6	-6.1	-0.5	-0.4
Weighted Mean	2	2	2	41	1	41.7	41	17	32	7	38%	.280	-4	1.40	4.54	4.68	4.48	8.7	3.3	6.1	1.3	5.2	0.5	1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
22%	40%	37%	39%	1.10

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 27)	2	2	2	41	1	41.7	41	17	32	7	38%	.280	-4	1.40	4.54	4.68	4.48	8.7	3.3	6.1	1.3	5.2	0.5	1.0
2009 (age 28)	3	3	3	55	1	53.7	54	22	43	7	39%	.290	-4	1.41	4.56	4.68	4.51	8.8	3.3	6.4	1.2	4.7	0.6	0.9
2010 (age 29)	2	2	3	58	0	50.3	50	19	38	7	36%	.284	-4	1.36	4.41	4.46	4.36	8.7	3.0	6.1	1.2	4.5	0.6	0.8
2011 (age 30)	2	2	2	46	0	41.0	42	16	32	6	38%	.293	-4	1.42	4.61	4.65	4.58	9.0	3.2	6.3	1.2	2.7	0.4	0.5
2012 (age 31)	2	2	3	53	0	47.3	45	16	35	6	38%	.273	-4	1.29	4.13	4.12	4.10	8.4	2.8	5.8	1.2	3.8	0.7	0.6
2013 (age 32)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.264	.367	.466
vs RHB	.248	.325	.407
Split	+.015	+.043	+.059
LgAvg	+.009	+.034	+.039

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	1.0	$1,750,000	5.1	4.9
2009	0.9	$1,725,000	4.6	4.1
2010	0.8	$1,675,000	4.4	3.6
2011	0.5	$1,200,000	2.7	2.5
2012	0.6	$1,600,000	3.8	3.7
2013	0.3	$850,000	1.4	0.7
2014	0.3	$875,000	1.4	1.0
Peak	4.1	$5,525,000	20.5	19.4

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	3.88	4.77	6.70	4.48
2009	4.04	5.02	6.33	4.51
2010	3.72	4.61	5.64	4.36
2011	3.56	5.10	6.92	4.58
2012	3.76	4.51	6.03	4.10
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	39%	0%	22%
2009	49%	28%	15%
2010	59%	43%	15%
2011	70%	52%	14%
2012	73%	64%	12%
2013	79%	70%	8%
2014	81%	74%	6%

61

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Darrel Akerfelds	1990	70		11	Bob Chakales	1955	52
2	Floyd Chiffer	1984	65		12	Al Reyes	1999	49
3	Juan Acevedo	1998	64		13	Wayne Rosenthal	1992	48
4	Bob Priddy	1967	59		14	Kurt Knudsen	1994	48
5	Kevin Beirne	2001	55		15	Randy Scarbery	1980	45
6	Dave Tobik	1981	54		16	Russ Springer	1996	45
7	Paul Byrd	1998	53		17	Brad Clontz	1999	44
8	Jeremy Fikac	2003	53		18	Jack Cressend	2003	44
9	Max Surkont	1950	53		19	D.J. Houlton	2007	44
10	Bob Moorhead	1965	52		20	Bob Stoddard	1985	43

Player Comments

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2007

The A`s fourth-round draft pick in 2001--that`s the year before the Moneyball draft--Marcus `The Scottish Play` McBeth batted .233 in three seasons as a center fielder, so in 2005 he made the logical switch from the garden to the hill. He`s had his ups and downs as a reliever, but in 2006 it was mostly up, and he`s a prospect as long as he maintains that strikeout rate (or something close to it). McBeth gets his fastball into the mid-90s and he`s working on a slider, but it`s his changeup that everybody talks about. He`s ticketed for Sacramento this spring.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	KNC	1B	1	2	1	16	0	19.7	20	13	21	2	30%	.340	-38	1.68	5.03	9.74	8.10	12.4	8.6	5.9	2.2	-4.6		-0.3
2005	STO	1C	0	0	0	2	0	2.7	1	2	3	0	20%	.200	5	1.11	0.00	2.18	0.00	3.4	6.8	6.8	0.0	1.7		0.1
2006	STO	1C	0	0	7	8	0	8.2	1	2	14	0	31%	.077	25	0.37	0.00	1.48	0.00	0.0	3.1	8.3	0.0	5.4		1.1
2006	MID	2A	3	2	25	45	0	54.1	43	20	65	4	43%	.287	4	1.16	2.50	4.06	3.52	7.5	3.9	7.2	1.0	12.4		3.3
2006	SAC	3A	0	1	0	6	0	7.0	7	6	7	3	18%	.211	-61	1.86	11.57	13.97	14.73	8.6	7.4	6.1	4.9	-7.4		-0.6
2007	LOU	3A	1	1	12	30	0	31.7	33	7	29	2	39%	.323	-2	1.26	2.56	4.70	4.31	9.8	2.3	5.7	0.9	4.5		1.2
2007	SAC	3A	1	0	5	8	0	10.0	7	3	6	2	43%	.185	-18	1.00	1.80	4.32	2.79	6.5	2.8	3.7	1.9	3.0		0.8
2007	CIN	MJ	3	2	0	23	0	19.7	22	7	17	2	29%	.345	4	1.47	5.94	4.16	4.87	8.9	2.7	7.1	0.9	0.1	-0.2	0.8

Pos	Name	IP	GS	ERA	WHIP	H	BB	HR	SO	W	L	SV	VORP
Long	Marcus McBeth	50	0	4.54	1.40	49	20	7	38	2	2	2	6.2

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats