Macay McBride

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:04 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
90^o	3	3	2	44	3	54.7	48	28	46	5	44%	.277	4	1.39	3.69	3.82	3.77	7.7	4.2	6.9	0.8	12.0	1.2	1.7
75^o	3	3	1	43	3	51.0	48	27	42	5	44%	.291	1	1.48	4.32	4.29	4.40	8.3	4.3	6.8	0.9	7.2	0.7	1.2
60^o	2	3	1	41	2	47.0	48	26	39	5	44%	.306	-2	1.57	5.02	4.81	5.10	8.9	4.5	6.7	1.0	2.6	0.3	0.7
50^o	2	3	1	39	2	44.3	48	25	36	5	45%	.316	-4	1.64	5.48	5.16	5.56	9.4	4.7	6.7	1.0	-0.1	0.0	0.4
40^o	2	2	1	37	2	41.3	47	24	33	5	45%	.328	-7	1.72	6.07	5.60	6.15	9.9	4.8	6.6	1.1	-3.1	-0.2	0.1
25^o	1	2	0	34	1	36.3	45	23	29	5	46%	.346	-11	1.85	6.99	6.30	7.07	10.8	5.1	6.6	1.2	-6.9	-0.6	-0.3
10^o	1	2	0	30	0	27.7	40	19	22	4	47%	.378	-19	2.10	8.79	7.69	8.85	12.5	5.6	6.4	1.4	-11.4	-1.0	-0.8
Weighted Mean	2	2	1	32	1	35.3	37	20	29	4	44%	.307	-2	1.58	5.09	4.85	5.18	9.0	4.6	6.8	1.0	1.9	0.2	0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
22%	44%	27%	39%	1.01

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2008 (age 25)	2	2	1	32	1	35.3	37	20	29	4	44%	.307	-2	1.58	5.09	4.85	5.18	9.0	4.6	6.8	1.0	1.9	0.2	0.6
2009 (age 26)	3	2	1	40	2	46.3	45	22	38	4	45%	.296	1	1.45	4.35	4.17	4.46	8.4	3.9	6.8	0.8	6.4	0.6	1.1
2010 (age 27)	3	3	2	58	3	64.3	62	30	56	6	44%	.302	3	1.43	4.56	4.10	4.70	8.4	3.8	7.2	0.8	4.1	0.7	0.8
2011 (age 28)	2	2	1	41	1	43.0	41	23	37	4	45%	.297	1	1.48	4.36	4.30	4.45	8.3	4.3	7.1	0.9	4.7	0.5	0.8
2012 (age 29)	2	2	2	49	0	44.7	44	22	36	5	46%	.294	-1	1.46	4.21	4.32	4.28	8.5	4.0	6.7	0.9	4.1	0.6	0.6
2013 (age 30)	2	2	2	41	0	37.7	36	19	32	4	45%	.296	1	1.46	4.08	4.21	4.16	8.4	4.0	6.9	0.9	3.9	0.5	0.6
2014 (age 31)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHB	.233	.336	.355
vs RHB	.267	.389	.418
Split	-.034	-.052	-.063
LgAvg	-.020	-.021	-.054

Valuation

Year	WARP	MORP	Mean VORP	Upside
2008	0.6	$1,000,000	2.0	2.1
2009	1.1	$2,275,000	6.4	5.8
2010	0.8	$1,675,000	4.1	2.6
2011	0.8	$1,875,000	4.7	4.4
2012	0.6	$1,675,000	4.1	2.6
2013	0.6	$1,675,000	3.9	2.5
2014	0.5	$1,350,000	2.7	2.4
Peak	4.6	$6,475,000	23.2	20.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	4.40	5.56	7.07	5.18
2009	3.76	4.67	6.69	4.46
2010	4.28	4.92	6.74	4.70
2011	3.77	5.12	6.79	4.45
2012	3.55	4.48	5.52	4.28
2013	3.31	3.99	5.29	4.16
2014	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	39%	0%	22%
2009	44%	16%	37%
2010	59%	42%	26%
2011	62%	38%	26%
2012	68%	47%	28%
2013	73%	62%	23%
2014	78%	68%	15%

41

Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Pitcher	Year	Score	Trend
1	Jorge de la Rosa	2006	47		11	Bob Allen	1963	32
2	Ted Bowsfield	1960	41		12	Ken Reynolds	1972	29
3	Jerry Stephenson	1969	38		13	Joe Sparma	1967	29
4	Phil Hennigan	1971	38		14	Jim Converse	1997	29
5	Dennis Powell	1989	37		15	C.J. Nitkowski	1998	28
6	Gerry Arrigo	1967	36		16	Steve Baker	1982	28
7	Brian Bohanon	1994	36		17	Pete Richert	1965	28
8	Matt Perisho	2001	35		18	Francisco Cordero	2001	28
9	Kent Peterson	1951	32		19	Jack O'Connor	1984	27
10	Frank Bertaina	1969	32		20	Lou Sleater	1952	25

Player Comments

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2007

Short and squat, McBride`s built for the bullpen. He usually works around 89 to 92 MPH, and his slider is fairly good at giving lefties fits (on his career, lefties have hit a mere .179/.245/.276 against him). You`d like to see better control from your LOOGY, but he`s not giving up many big flies. Only 23, he has time to fix his control issues.

2006

A 2001 1^st rounder out of Sylvania, Georgia, McBride struggled at Double-A in 2004 until shifted to the bullpen, where mechanical adjustments upped his velocity into the mid-90s. Summoned to Atlanta in late July, he was largely effective in the second LOOGY role: his 1.08 WXRL was second on the team, and his ERA was distorted by a bombing in an 11-3 loss and the performances of the relievers behind him (his Fair Run Average was 3.68). Mostly, he missed a lot of bats; more than half of the 42 outs he recorded came on strikeouts. Long-term, the Braves may still be thinking of him as a starter rather than a reliever, which probably means more time in the minors.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	Stuff	WHIP	ERA	PERA	ERA	H9	BB9	K9	HR9	VORP	WXRL	WARP
2005	MIS	2A	3	1	0	6	3	24.7	21	12	16	2	64%	.264	-17	1.34	3.64	5.29	5.24	8.5	5.2	3.6	1.2	0.9		0.6
2005	RIC	3A	1	5	2	25	1	43.7	49	22	47	5	45%	.376	-11	1.62	4.32	7.87	7.03	11.8	5.7	7.3	1.4	-6.3		0.0
2005	ATL	MJ	1	0	1	23	0	14.0	18	7	22	0	44%	.486	26	1.79	5.79	5.93	7.71	12.2	3.9	11.6	0.0	-2.4	1.1	-0.1
2006	MIS	2A	0	0	0	4	2	4.2	8	1	6	1	31%	.500	-44	2.14	10.71	21.47	18.69	18.7	2.1	8.3	4.2	-6.3		-0.3
2006	ATL	MJ	4	1	1	71	0	56.7	53	32	46	2	48%	.307	2	1.50	3.65	3.67	4.13	8.1	4.4	6.7	0.3	9.9	1.2	1.6
2007	RIC	3A	1	2	0	7	5	23.0	26	7	24	3	40%	.338	2	1.43	3.13	6.65	5.16	11.1	3.2	6.8	1.6	1.1		0.5
2007	TOL	3A	1	0	0	5	0	8.0	9	5	6	1	63%	.364	-31	1.75	3.38	10.79	8.10	13.5	6.8	5.4	1.4	-1.9		-0.1
2007	DET	MJ	0	1	0	20	0	17.7	19	10	13	3	42%	.302	-14	1.64	6.10	6.14	6.11	9.7	4.6	6.1	1.5	-0.4	0.1	0.1
2007	ATL	MJ	1	0	0	18	0	15.0	14	15	17	1	40%	.317	3	1.93	3.60	4.96	5.17	8.0	7.5	9.2	0.6	0.8	0.2	0.2

Historical Stats