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Nate McLouth
Pittsburgh Pirates [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Center Field
Bats L
Age 26
5' 11"
185 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Pirates Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 1 Nate McLouth 65 493 .269 81 16 63 24 .342 .448 21.2
RF 5 Nate McLouth 10 68 .269 81 16 63 24 .342 .448 21.2
2   2008 Total 75 561 .269 81 16 63 24 .342 .448 21.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 IND 3A 455 64 20 3 5 39 39 58 34 8 3.0 .297 .364 .401 .053 .269 .334 .361 .255 -8.0 73-LF 7 2.4
2005 PIT MJ 120 20 6 0 5 12 3 20 2 0 2.2 .257 .305 .450 .006 .255 .303 .464 .262 3.3 19-CF -2 0.6
2006 PIT MJ 297 50 16 2 7 16 18 59 10 1 3.5 .233 .293 .385 -.158 .236 .295 .395 .244 -1.0 39-CF -3 0.8
2007 PIT MJ 382 62 21 3 13 38 39 77 22 1 0.5 .258 .351 .459 .068 .261 .357 .477 .293 21.7 55-CF 2 3.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:57 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 415 70 25 3 15 48 37 68 20 4 1.8 .298 .371 .506 .161 .292 .368 .514 .300 28.6 99-CF -5 4.5
75o 398 61 23 3 13 45 35 67 18 4 1.6 .284 .357 .478 .089 .279 .354 .486 .288 20.7 95-CF -5 3.7
60o 389 57 22 3 12 43 34 66 18 4 1.6 .277 .350 .463 .051 .272 .347 .471 .282 16.7 93-CF -5 3.4
50o 378 52 21 3 11 41 33 65 16 3 1.5 .269 .341 .447 .009 .264 .339 .454 .275 12.6 91-CF -5 3.0
40o 372 50 20 2 11 40 32 65 16 3 1.5 .264 .336 .437 -.018 .259 .334 .444 .270 10.0 89-CF -5 2.7
25o 359 45 19 2 10 38 30 63 15 3 1.4 .255 .326 .418 -.068 .250 .324 .424 .261 5.4 86-CF -5 2.3
10o 299 27 14 1 5 28 24 57 9 2 1.0 .215 .283 .336 -.279 .211 .281 .341 .218 -10.4 73-CF -5 0.5
Weighted Mean 410 59 23 3 12 46 35 70 18 4 1.5 .269 .342 .448 .010 .265 .339 .455 .274 15.4 98-CF -5 3.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

58%

18%

24%

0.97

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 26) 410 59 23 3 12 46 35 70 18 4 1.5 .269 .342 .448 .010 .265 .339 .455 .274 15.4 98-CF -5 3.1
2009 (age 27) 418 63 23 3 13 49 39 69 17 4 1.3 .274 .351 .454 .038 .265 .343 .454 .279 13.5 100-CF -6 2.7
2010 (age 28) 356 50 20 2 11 43 34 59 14 3 1.2 .273 .352 .459 .045 .264 .344 .458 .280 12.7 86-CF -5 2.5
2011 (age 29) 380 53 20 2 11 44 36 62 14 3 1.1 .274 .350 .449 .030 .265 .342 .448 .277 10.7 91-CF -10 2.0
2012 (age 30) 422 63 24 3 13 50 39 70 14 3 1.0 .272 .349 .456 .036 .263 .341 .455 .278 10.2 100-CF -9 2.0
2013 (age 31) 401 59 22 3 13 48 39 64 12 3 0.9 .279 .355 .466 .065 .270 .347 .466 .281 11.2 96-CF -7 2.0
2014 (age 32) 337 44 18 2 11 42 32 56 8 2 0.7 .275 .350 .457 .041 .266 .342 .456 .277 7.7 81-CF -9 1.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .248 .320 .413
vs RHP .278 .354 .480
Split -.030 -.033 -.067
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.7 1.4 3.1 $6,275,000 15.7 11.8
2009 1.8 0.9 2.7 $5,575,000 12.7 10.7
2010 1.6 0.9 2.5 $5,700,000 12.6 11.0
2011 1.4 0.6 2.0 $4,125,000 7.5 6.2
2012 1.4 0.6 2.0 $4,625,000 8.5 9.0
2013 1.4 0.7 2.0 $5,550,000 10.4 9.3
2014 1.0 0.5 1.5 $3,625,000 5.5 5.8
Peak 14.3 $24,750,000 67.4 57.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .288 .275 .261 .274
2009 .298 .281 .262 .279
2010 .295 .284 .263 .280
2011 .297 .279 .252 .277
2012 .297 .275 .247 .278
2013 .301 .284 .265 .281
2014 .295 .272 .248 .277


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 24% 0% 19%
2009 30% 8% 25%
2010 33% 17% 18%
2011 46% 21% 18%
2012 50% 29% 18%
2013 48% 35% 19%
2014 63% 42% 13%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

The Pirates have corned the market on FOGies--Fourth Outfielder Guys. Their farm system is practically the Fourth Outfielder Factory. If a young outfielder is just good enough to not start, the Pirates will sniff him out and make sure he stays that way. You can buy just one or you can buy them in bulk at a discount. McLouth? Duffy? McDuffy? Butter or no butter, salted or unsalted, cinnamon and sour cream varieties, frozen and unfrozen. Move away from Pittsburgh? They`ll ship a case to you so you never have to feel lonely. McLouth isn`t quite as good as Duffy, and plating only 6.3 percent of the men on base when he batted, the worst mark in baseball among hitters with 150 PA. Of course, he can`t really play center either. No matter how scrappy you are, people notice when you do this little with that much playing time.

2006

McLouth finds himself in an all-too-common developmental pickle: he lacks the glove for center and the bat for a corner. He hasn`t shown adequate plate discipline since arriving in the high minors, and the power has never been there (career Isolated Slugging Percentage of only .135), or wasn`t until last fall, when he hit four home runs in his last six games. Sometimes, stuff happens. He`s left-handed, can steal a base, and he gets high marks for being a gamer, so he`ll be around for a while as a popular outfield reserve, perhaps lucking into a Joe Orsulak sort of career.

2005

Some optimistically compare McLouth to Lenny Dykstra, but that's code for a white guy who can run and get dirty. It's expected that he can play center field, and with his line-drive hitting skills, he's probably a lot of people's idea of a fine fourth outfielder. As long as Tike Redman's in center, that means he's got a shot at a regular job. He's young enough to keep picking up power, and within the system, he's the guy with the best shot of winding up in center or right by 2006.


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