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Lastings Milledge
Washington Nationals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats R
Age 23
6'
205 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Nationals Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
CF 2 Lastings Milledge 85 635 .290 96 21 82 25 .359 .480 37.7
1   2008 Total 85 635 .290 96 21 82 25 .359 .480 37.7

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 SLU 1C 269 48 15 0 4 22 19 41 18 13 4.2 .302 .385 .418 .166 .257 .321 .357 .235 -1.1 59-CF -5 1.2
2005 BIN 2A 214 33 17 0 4 24 14 47 11 5 -2.3 .337 .392 .487 .277 .260 .315 .383 .246 0.8 41-CF -5 1.1
2006 NOR 3A 367 52 21 4 7 36 43 67 13 10 3.0 .277 .388 .440 .250 .269 .372 .449 .280 22.2 54-CF 2 3.1
2006 NYN MJ 185 14 7 2 4 22 12 39 1 2 0.5 .241 .310 .380 -.118 .246 .314 .383 .241 -3.8 23-RF -3 0.7
2007 MTS 0R 9 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0.5 .143 .333 .286 -.120 .125 .222 .125 .000 -3.5 0.0
2007 BIN 2A 24 7 1 1 3 8 0 4 1 0 -0.4 .435 .458 .957 1.198 .391 .417 .913 .398 7.1 0.6
2007 NWO 3A 43 9 1 0 1 5 2 12 5 0 0.4 .333 .372 .436 .139 .231 .279 .333 .239 -1.9 0.2
2007 NYN MJ 206 27 9 1 7 29 13 42 3 2 -0.7 .272 .341 .446 .069 .283 .351 .473 .278 6.4 25-RF -2 1.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:05 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 452 91 27 3 20 66 37 80 19 6 1.4 .327 .395 .564 .307 .326 .395 .575 .321 44.8 107-RF 2 5.9
75o 423 75 24 3 17 59 34 77 17 5 1.3 .309 .377 .523 .204 .308 .378 .533 .305 31.8 101-RF 2 4.8
60o 394 62 21 2 14 51 32 74 16 4 1.1 .291 .360 .482 .104 .290 .360 .491 .289 20.3 94-RF 1 3.7
50o 380 56 20 2 12 48 30 72 15 4 1.1 .282 .351 .463 .057 .282 .352 .472 .282 15.4 91-RF 1 3.3
40o 372 53 19 2 12 46 30 71 14 4 1.0 .277 .347 .452 .031 .277 .347 .461 .277 12.8 89-RF 1 3.0
25o 345 43 17 1 9 40 27 67 13 3 0.9 .262 .331 .417 -.055 .261 .332 .425 .262 5.0 83-RF 0 2.2
10o 303 31 13 1 6 32 23 61 11 3 0.8 .239 .308 .365 -.181 .238 .309 .372 .239 -4.5 74-RF 0 1.2
Weighted Mean 380 58 20 2 13 50 30 71 15 4 1.1 .290 .359 .480 .099 .289 .359 .489 .288 22.6 91-RF 2 3.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

51%

76%

10%

18%

1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 23) 380 58 20 2 13 50 30 71 15 4 1.1 .290 .359 .480 .099 .289 .359 .489 .288 22.6 91-RF 2 3.7
2009 (age 24) 432 72 23 2 15 57 37 80 17 5 1.1 .289 .364 .483 .112 .285 .359 .483 .289 21.7 103-RF 4 4.0
2010 (age 25) 445 76 22 2 17 61 38 80 19 5 1.1 .288 .363 .489 .116 .283 .358 .489 .291 22.6 106-RF 4 4.2
2011 (age 26) 445 79 23 2 18 63 40 79 19 5 1.0 .294 .370 .503 .152 .289 .365 .503 .298 25.1 106-RF 4 4.3
2012 (age 27) 433 75 21 2 17 60 41 76 15 4 1.0 .292 .374 .492 .141 .287 .368 .492 .296 22.8 103-RF 2 3.9
2013 (age 28) 419 70 22 2 18 61 38 73 15 4 0.9 .292 .363 .503 .139 .287 .358 .504 .294 20.7 100-RF 2 3.5
2014 (age 29) 443 76 23 2 19 63 43 78 11 4 0.8 .294 .371 .507 .160 .289 .366 .508 .297 21.4 105-RF 3 3.6

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .305 .380 .503
vs RHP .284 .347 .460
Split +.022 +.033 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.2 1.5 3.7 $8,450,000 22.3 25.2
2009 2.6 1.4 4.0 $9,850,000 22.9 26.5
2010 2.7 1.4 4.2 $11,050,000 23.7 28.0
2011 2.9 1.4 4.3 $12,850,000 26.7 33.6
2012 2.7 1.2 3.9 $11,725,000 22.2 26.1
2013 2.4 1.1 3.5 $11,200,000 20.3 24.0
2014 2.4 1.2 3.6 $12,600,000 21.5 27.6
Peak 23.6 $51,475,000 138.1 165.8


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .305 .282 .262 .288
2009 .313 .286 .265 .289
2010 .313 .287 .269 .291
2011 .322 .289 .275 .298
2012 .314 .295 .277 .296
2013 .308 .295 .268 .294
2014 .320 .295 .263 .297


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 18% 0% 51%
2009 12% 1% 56%
2010 15% 4% 53%
2011 22% 3% 59%
2012 21% 8% 59%
2013 32% 12% 58%
2014 31% 18% 50%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Milledge acts like he`s the second coming of Deion Sanders, Rickey Henderson, and Madonna combined, not exactly the best way to win friends and influence people. Statistical comparisons to Jack Clark or Adrian Beltre aside, a more instructive comparison might be to Rondell White or Brian Jordan. That ain`t bad--prior to turning 30, White was a career .295/.351/.484 hitter, while Jordan finished his peak period at .291/.339/.474--but it doesn`t make you a star or even an All-Star in most seasons (White and Jordan made one All-Star team each). Given Milledge`s youth, significant growth is still possible, but, for now, the disconnect between Milledge`s self-regard and his actual abilities is the reason the Mets haven`t wholly committed to him.

2006

The split year between St. Lucie and Binghamton did nothing to halt the bandwagon. A nice star turn in the AFL made the picture even brighter, although nothing can buck up a hitter`s numbers like a trip to Arizona, regardless of the time of year. If he continues the split-season program, he`ll be in the Shea outfield by the middle of 2007, possibly sooner. More power will come with physical maturity, but to really live up to the hype he`ll need to polish his game in the field, on the bases, and particularly by learning the strike zone.

2005

The Mets' #1 pick in the 2003 draft got a late start after breaking his finger in spring training, then tore apart the Sally League for three months. He's a big-time tools guy who can actually apply his power and speed. Milledge has so little pro experience that you can excuse his lack of patience at the plate so far, especially since his strikeout rate wasn't out of hand in Capital City. We'll learn a lot this year. Aside: There are a lot of great names in this system, names that top anything Dickens could come up with.


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