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Brian Moehler
Houston Astros [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 36
6' 3"
235 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 FLO MJ 6 12 0 37 25 158.3 198 42 95 16 46% .349 0 1.52 4.55 5.22 4.55 10.7 2.2 5.0 0.9 13.4 2.6 3.8
2006 MRL OR 0 1 0 1 1 5.2 8 0 4 0 53% .421 -11 1.54 3.46 11.69 8.31 18.7 2.1 4.2 0.0 -1.3 -0.1
2006 FLO MJ 7 11 0 29 21 122.0 164 38 58 19 47% .340 -15 1.66 6.57 6.61 6.97 11.6 2.4 3.9 1.3 -16.5 0.2 -0.4
2007 HOU MJ 1 4 1 42 0 59.7 67 17 36 8 54% .304 -7 1.41 4.07 4.53 3.90 9.4 2.1 5.1 1.0 10.2 0.0 1.7


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/17/08 12:38 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 3 3 46 3 74.0 73 21 41 5 49% .279 -5 1.26 2.92 3.63 2.88 8.8 2.2 4.5 0.7 21.3 1.9 3.1
75o 3 3 2 42 3 67.7 72 20 37 6 48% .294 -8 1.35 3.66 4.26 3.68 9.5 2.3 4.4 0.8 13.2 1.2 2.2
60o 3 3 2 39 3 62.7 71 19 34 6 48% .305 -11 1.43 4.23 4.76 4.30 10.1 2.4 4.4 0.9 7.8 0.7 1.6
50o 3 3 1 36 2 58.3 69 18 32 7 48% .315 -13 1.50 4.75 5.22 4.87 10.7 2.5 4.3 1.0 3.4 0.4 1.1
40o 2 3 1 35 2 55.7 68 18 30 7 48% .321 -14 1.54 5.07 5.49 5.20 11.0 2.5 4.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.9
25o 2 3 1 30 2 47.7 64 16 26 7 48% .339 -19 1.67 6.11 6.38 6.31 12.0 2.6 4.3 1.3 -5.1 -0.4 0.2
10o 1 2 0 19 2 31.0 49 11 16 6 48% .371 -27 1.93 8.48 8.10 8.88 14.1 2.9 4.2 1.6 -12.5 -1.0 -0.7
Weighted Mean 3 3 1 37 2 60.0 69 18 33 6 48% .307 -11 1.45 4.37 4.87 4.45 10.3 2.4 4.4 0.9 6.0 0.6 1.3

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

38%

63%

19%

37%

0.99

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 36) 3 3 1 37 2 60.0 69 18 33 6 48% .307 -11 1.45 4.37 4.87 4.45 10.3 2.4 4.4 0.9 6.0 0.6 1.3
2009 (age 37) 2 3 1 34 1 51.3 63 15 28 7 48% .319 -16 1.52 4.99 5.56 5.09 11.1 2.3 4.3 1.2 1.2 0.2 0.5
2010 (age 38) 2 3 1 35 1 51.0 61 13 26 7 47% .310 -15 1.45 4.68 5.24 4.75 10.8 2.1 4.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.5
2011 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 42)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .286 .363 .458
vs RHB .273 .332 .407
Split +.012 +.031 +.052
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.3 $2,375,000 7.1 6.0
2009 0.5 $975,000 1.8 2.1
2010 0.5 $1,025,000 2.2 2.0
2011 0.3 $900,000 1.9 1.5
2012 0.2 $750,000 1.3 1.0
2013 0.0 $400,000 0.0 0.1
2014 0.0 $400,000 0.0 0.0
Peak 2.9 $3,775,000 14.3 12.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 3.68 4.87 6.31 4.45
2009 4.04 5.07 7.61 5.09
2010 4.01 5.17 7.06 4.75
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 37% 0% 38%
2009 54% 35% 24%
2010 68% 54% 19%
2011 81% 72% 19%
2012 91% 84% 17%
2013 92% 91% 15%
2014 100% 96% 12%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

39

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Terry Leach 1990 46 11 Dan Osinski 1970 35
2 Roger Craig 1966 45 12 Graeme Lloyd 2003 34
3 Mike Maddux 1998 42 13 Giovanni Carrara 2004 31
4 Ted Power 1991 42 14 Bob Purkey 1966 31
5 Charles Nagy 2003 41 15 Bob Keegan 1957 31
6 Rick White 2005 38 16 Dennis Lamp 1989 30
7 Rick Reuschel 1985 38 17 Matt Herges 2006 29
8 Jim Konstanty 1953 37 18 Eddie Fisher 1973 28
9 Jerry Staley 1957 37 19 Rich Rodriguez 1999 28
10 Ron Kline 1968 36 20 Paul Lindblad 1978 27

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Scuffy lost his rotation spot to Anibal Sanchez, and, at the end of the year, said that he just doesn`t have what it takes to be a starter any more. It`s true. A free agent at this writing, he`s unlikely ever to land a steady gig again.

2006

After a year off recovering from TJ surgery, Scuffy was roughly what he had been, a hittable pitcher with good control. The Marlins brought him back on a one-year contract, but with the plethora of pitching prospects clamoring for auditions, Moehler should be dealt as soon as he puts together consecutive quality starts--assuming he puts together consecutive quality starts.

2003

Picking up Moehler in late July on the premise that he was going to help the team catch St. Louis was silly, not even allowing for the fact that they knew he wasn’t close to 100% following 2001 shoulder surgery. Bowden compounded the gaffe by using David Espinosa, the organization’s only semi-legitimate middle infield prospect, as bait. Even at full strength, Moehler is little more than a journeyman starter. With slim pickings on the free agent market, he’s taking a shot at pitching in Houston.

2002

Among the many reasons to suspect that the Tigers will improve in 2002, the return of Brian Moehler ranks near the bottom of the list. His reputation in Detroit far exceeds his actual performance, and he was walking on thin ice before the injury: Moehler has never struck out more than 5.2 men per nine innings, a poor mark in today’s whiff-happy era. His value comes from bulk innings, which will be of little use to Detroit if the Tigers’ young arms have come along as far as Randy Smith thinks they have.

2001

Some players can’t make the adjustment when their bread-and-butter move is taken away. Ross Barnes was never the same hitter after the fair-foul rule was revoked. Although his dream of being a spokesperson for Western Garnet was dashed, Brian Moehler appears to have survived having the scuff ball removed from his arsenal. He compensated for being more hittable last season by lowering his walk rate into the Maddux Zone. Moehler walks a thin line but should be an acceptable back-of-the-rotation guy for a few more years.

2000

You know, his success had been a mystery to us. But consider the case solved: he went 7-13 with a 5.24 ERA after getting caught scuffing the ball. He did pitch much better the last two months of the year, walking just 15 men in 73 innings. That doesn’t mean he wasn’t cheating again; Gaylord Perry was one heck of a control pitcher. Not to encourage such behavior, but if he wants to stay in the big leagues, he probably can’t rely on his ability.

1999

“Coming up next on ‘Whatever Happened To?’ on VH1: Drexy’s Midnight Runners, Flock of Seagulls, and that wonderful duet between Jeff Ballard and Mike Dunne, with special guest star Allan Anderson!” The history of baseball is paved with the careers of starting pitchers who found success without striking anyone out, and petered out soon thereafter. Moehler isn’t quite in the Ballard class of finesse, but he has yet to strike out more than 5 men per 9 innings, and at 27 is unlikely to improve on that. He does have a fine sinker and I think he could still fool people for another year or two, but I certainly wouldn’t want to sign him to any five-year deals.

1998

Not bad, really. Didn’t push the club towards a title, but it could have been worse. Moehler has to be on to be effective; he’ll bounce around for a few years at about league average, and a starting pitcher that can do that will make a lot of money and help a lot of teams. Will outperform the projection above.

1997

The Tigers also gave Moehler an audition last September, but he has even less talent than Miller. The Tigers assistant GM described Moehler as having “average big league stuff,” and that was meant as a compliment. When words like “he’s a real competitor” and “he eats up innings” are used to describe a pitcher, it’s usually the kiss of death. Moehler’s numbers certainly don’t suggest he’ll be anything more than a tenth man.


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