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Miguel Montero
Arizona Diamondbacks [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats L
Age 24
5' 11"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Diamondbacks Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 7 Miguel Montero 30 197 .270 25 9 29 1 .336 .490 8.8
1   2008 Total 30 197 .270 25 9 29 1 .336 .490 8.8

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LNC 1C 399 73 24 1 24 82 26 52 1 2 -0.2 .349 .403 .625 .333 .265 .310 .443 .256 12.0 59-C -1 2.5
2005 TEN 2A 120 13 1 2 2 13 7 26 1 0 0.7 .250 .311 .352 -.126 .216 .267 .315 .204 -5.9 28-C -1 0.4
2006 TEN 2A 337 24 18 0 10 46 39 44 0 3 1.5 .270 .362 .436 .139 .255 .338 .432 .265 13.9 73-C 1 3.1
2006 TUC 3A 154 21 5 0 7 29 14 21 1 1 -2.9 .321 .396 .515 .249 .285 .355 .467 .282 9.7 28-C -1 1.5
2006 ARI MJ 17 0 1 0 0 3 1 3 0 0 -0.1 .250 .294 .313 -.251 .250 .294 .312 .211 -0.5 0.0
2007 ARI MJ 244 30 7 0 10 37 20 35 0 0 -1.2 .224 .292 .397 -.152 .216 .287 .394 .239 0.5 57-C -5 1.0


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 2:16 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 318 49 17 1 18 51 28 46 2 1 -0.5 .299 .365 .559 .225 .287 .354 .533 .295 24.1 77-C -6 3.5
75o 305 42 14 1 16 46 26 44 2 1 -0.5 .281 .348 .517 .124 .270 .337 .493 .279 16.3 74-C -5 2.8
60o 298 39 13 1 15 44 25 44 2 1 -0.4 .273 .340 .498 .077 .262 .330 .474 .271 12.9 73-C -5 2.5
50o 296 38 13 1 14 43 25 43 2 1 -0.4 .270 .336 .490 .058 .259 .326 .466 .268 11.5 72-C -5 2.4
40o 287 34 12 1 13 40 23 42 1 1 -0.4 .259 .326 .464 -.005 .249 .316 .441 .257 7.2 70-C -4 2.1
25o 274 29 10 1 11 36 22 41 1 1 -0.4 .244 .310 .427 -.092 .234 .301 .406 .241 1.6 67-C -4 1.6
10o 255 23 8 1 9 30 19 39 1 1 -0.3 .223 .289 .376 -.211 .214 .280 .359 .218 -5.2 63-C -3 1.0
Weighted Mean 303 39 13 1 15 45 25 44 2 1 -0.4 .270 .336 .490 .058 .259 .326 .466 .266 13.6 74-C -4 2.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

33%

65%

17%

27%

0.93

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 24) 303 39 13 1 15 45 25 44 2 1 -0.4 .270 .336 .490 .058 .259 .326 .466 .266 13.6 74-C -4 2.7
2009 (age 25) 302 41 14 1 14 48 27 42 2 1 -0.5 .284 .356 .505 .123 .268 .340 .472 .279 16.2 74-C -3 3.0
2010 (age 26) 343 50 16 1 16 53 32 48 2 1 -0.5 .282 .357 .507 .125 .267 .341 .474 .279 16.7 83-C -4 3.0
2011 (age 27) 296 39 14 1 15 44 27 42 2 1 -0.5 .274 .349 .501 .098 .260 .333 .468 .274 13.2 72-C -6 2.4
2012 (age 28) 279 36 12 1 14 43 25 40 2 1 -0.4 .274 .346 .496 .086 .259 .330 .464 .272 10.9 68-C -5 2.1
2013 (age 29) 302 39 14 1 14 46 28 43 2 1 -0.4 .269 .342 .483 .058 .255 .326 .452 .268 9.5 74-C -6 2.0
2014 (age 30) 214 24 9 0 10 34 20 31 1 0 -0.4 .274 .344 .493 .079 .259 .329 .461 .271 8.8 54-C -4 1.8

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .245 .309 .444
vs RHP .279 .351 .544
Split -.034 -.042 -.100
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 1.1 1.6 2.7 $4,850,000 10.4 13.1
2009 1.6 1.4 3.0 $6,300,000 13.7 19.1
2010 1.6 1.4 3.0 $6,875,000 13.8 20.5
2011 1.3 1.1 2.4 $5,250,000 9.0 12.2
2012 1.1 1.0 2.1 $4,775,000 7.6 10.7
2013 1.0 0.9 2.0 $4,300,000 5.4 9.1
2014 0.9 0.9 1.8 $4,400,000 5.7 9.0
Peak 15.3 $25,125,000 59.9 84.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .279 .268 .241 .266
2009 .293 .279 .249 .279
2010 .302 .271 .254 .279
2011 .295 .266 .247 .274
2012 .287 .274 .253 .272
2013 .292 .266 .227 .268
2014 .298 .268 .232 .271


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 27% 0% 33%
2009 28% 2% 50%
2010 29% 6% 41%
2011 31% 10% 42%
2012 42% 12% 42%
2013 45% 16% 37%
2014 56% 23% 37%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

50

Do the years for these comparables look wrong? They are wrong!
Click here for the scoop. We'll have this fixed as soon as we can.
Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Joe Garagiola 1992 40 11 Barry Foote 2003 33
2 Frank House 1979 36 12 Terry Kennedy 1971 33
3 Dave Nilsson 1981 36 13 Jeff Torborg 1982 33
4 Rube Walker 1970 36 14 Gail Harris 1960 33
5 Mike Sweeney 1973 35 15 Mike Scioscia 2007 32
6 Ed Herrmann 1992 35 16 Hobie Landrith 1975 32
7 Dann Bilardello 1975 34 17 Les Moss 1969 32
8 Mike Macfarlane 1975 34 18 Jimmie Coker 2000 31
9 Rick Wilkins 1957 34 19 Johnny Edwards 1979 30
10 Mike Lieberthal 1998 33 20 Jerry Willard 2005 30

Player Comments

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2007

Montero went hitless in his big league debut, but so did the rest of the D`backs against Anibal Sanchez that night. By then Montero had already proven that his big year in Lancaster in 2005 wasn`t just a park illusion. More importantly, Montero has improved his defense to the point that it`s no longer a reason to keep him out of the lineup. His arm isn`t so great that he`ll win between-innings accuracy contests, but it`s not Piazza-poor, either. He probably won`t get much better than this, but with Johnny Estrada now in Milwaukee, he and Chris Snyder will form a productive, low-cost catching tandem for a few years.

2006

Montero broke out in 2005, though the usual organization-wide caveats apply, as he hit .404/.445/.718 at home and "just" .307/.371/.553 on the road. But even with the Lancaster boost, his High-A season was pretty impressive, resulting in a Cal League batting title. He had the usual/expected slump after being promoted to Double-A, so the permanence of his offensive gains are in doubt. He improved his defense in 2005, to the point where he was no longer a liability behind the plate. With neither Chris Snyder nor Koyie Hill doing much to inspire confidence, he could be on the organization`s radar sooner than you think. Like, now.


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