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Colt Morton
San Diego Padres [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 27
6' 5"
230 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 LEL A+ 222 30 15 0 5 22 36 44 0 1 -2.3 .227 .374 .398 -.412 .158 .270 .268 .193 -17.8 45-C 0 -0.7
2006 MOB AA 152 15 10 0 6 21 11 44 0 0 -1.1 .266 .329 .468 -.107 .239 .289 .444 .246 0.6 37-C 1 0.6
2007 PDR Rk 41 9 4 0 0 8 5 11 0 0 0.0 .290 .366 .419 -.735 .139 .175 .167 .080 -15.1 -1.0
2007 LEL A+ 30 5 7 0 3 8 4 3 0 0 0.0 .500 .600 1.167 .909 .385 .467 .885 .409 8.2 6-C -2 0.5
2007 SAN AA 116 17 3 0 6 19 15 34 0 0 -2.1 .266 .383 .489 -.153 .220 .310 .390 .247 -1.1 20-C 1 8-1B -1 0.3
2008 SAN AA 177 18 8 0 3 18 11 55 1 0 0.3 .188 .243 .291 -.688 .137 .176 .202 .068 -28.9 42-C -4 -2.5
2008 POR AAA 59 6 1 1 2 6 6 15 0 0 -1.4 .170 .254 .340 -.455 .148 .220 .315 .178 -5.6 14-C -1 -0.4
2008 SDN MLB 18 2 0 0 0 1 2 5 0 0 0.3 .067 .167 .067 -.887 .067 .167 .067 .000 -2.9 5-C 0 -0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 11:07 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 302 27 14 1 9 32 30 96 0 0 -1.4 .209 .294 .369 -.152 .218 .302 .402 .243 1.3 73-C 0 1.4
75o 294 23 12 1 8 30 28 95 0 0 -1.3 .196 .279 .344 -.225 .204 .286 .375 .228 -3.7 72-C 0 0.9
60o 286 20 11 1 7 28 26 94 0 0 -1.2 .182 .262 .318 -.299 .190 .270 .347 .212 -8.6 70-C 0 0.4
50o 277 17 10 1 6 25 24 92 0 0 -1.1 .169 .247 .293 -.372 .176 .253 .320 .195 -13.1 68-C 0 0.0
40o 273 16 10 1 6 24 23 92 0 0 -1.1 .163 .239 .282 -.404 .170 .246 .307 .186 -15.0 67-C 0 -0.3
25o 264 14 9 1 5 22 21 90 0 0 -1.0 .151 .225 .260 -.467 .158 .232 .284 .169 -18.4 65-C 0 -0.7
10o 245 10 7 0 4 17 18 87 0 0 -0.8 .131 .201 .223 -.575 .137 .207 .244 .132 -23.3 61-C 0 -1.3
Weighted Mean 280 18 10 1 7 26 24 93 0 0 -1.1 .169 .247 .294 -.403 .176 .254 .320 .195 -11.3 69-C 0 0.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

56%

68%

22%

29%

1.27

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 27) 280 18 10 1 7 26 24 93 0 0 -1.1 .169 .247 .294 -.403 .176 .254 .320 .195 -11.3 69-C 0 0.1
2010 (age 28) 276 17 10 0 6 24 23 93 0 0 -0.8 .164 .239 .286 -.411 .168 .242 .308 .188 -10.5 68-C -1 0.0
2011 (age 29) 233 14 8 0 5 22 20 77 0 0 -0.6 .165 .242 .288 -.401 .170 .246 .311 .191 -7.3 58-C 0 0.1
2012 (age 30) 249 13 8 0 5 21 20 88 0 0 -0.3 .152 .226 .264 -.473 .156 .229 .284 .171 -6.2 62-C -1 0.0
2013 (age 31)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 32)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 33)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .187 .266 .324
vs RHP .165 .241 .282
Split +.021 +.025 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -10.8 0.0 0.1 $400,000 -12.5 0.1
2010 -12.3 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -11.9 0.5
2011 -9.9 0.0 0.1 $400,000 -7.7 0.1
2012 -14.5 -1.0 0.0 $400,000 -6.7 0.1
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.1 $225,000 0.0 1.0


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .228 .195 .169 .195
2010 .222 .197 .163 .188
2011 .229 .208 .157 .191
2012 .230 .186 .083 .171
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 29% 0% 56%
2010 51% 29% 51%
2011 67% 41% 50%
2012 77% 58% 42%
2013 84% 71% 36%
2014 91% 81% 34%
2015 97% 88% 29%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

55

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jimmy Gonzalez 2000 58 11 Gary Tremblay 1989 38
2 Bob Geren 1988 51 12 Tim Glass 1985 38
3 Bobby Hughes 1998 48 13 Dan Conway 2007 38
4 Brad Cresse 2005 48 14 Rick Sellers 1994 38
5 Kevin Richardson 2007 48 15 Jimmy Kremers 1992 38
6 Ryan Jorgensen 2006 45 16 Jonathan Aceves 2005 36
7 Marc Sullivan 1985 44 17 Alberto Concepcion 2008 36
8 Rick Lundblade 1990 41 18 Jerry Goff 1991 36
9 Alan Probst 1998 40 19 Bill McGuire 1991 35
10 Michael Johnson 2007 39 20 Eli Whiteside 2007 35

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Shoulder surgery made 2007 a lost year for Morton, who was lapped by Hundley while he rehabbed. The two are similar players, but Morton has a bit more power. His appearance in the majors-he spent September on the roster and got one at-bat-was more about him being on the 40-man roster than earning the call-up. The Padres like the way he catches, and his power seemed to come back after the surgery, so he adds to the deep stable of Pads backstops.

2007

Morton`s a monster-sized backstop who`s surprisingly decent behind the plate and can throw. If you remember the debate over whether or not Jayson Werth would stick as a catcher because he was so much larger than most--as it turned out, he didn`t--Morton is even larger than Werth. There`s something to be said for the theory that a large human being is ill-suited for the squatting that catching requires; it`s like asking an especially beefy Scotsman to toss the caber 160 times in three hours--then bat and run the bases. Appropriately for someone so Bunyanesque, what he hits goes really far when he connects, but his approach is Kingman-esque; he swings at everything and hopes for the best. He`s not a prospect, but if you like your players improbable and unique, you should root for him.


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