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Miguel Olivo
Kansas City Royals [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 30
6'
220 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Royals Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 8 Miguel Olivo 65 144 .245 15 6 19 2 .267 .441 0.6
1   2009 Total 65 144 .245 15 6 19 2 .267 .441 0.6

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 FLO MLB 452 52 22 3 16 58 9 103 2 3 -0.5 .263 .287 .440 -.081 .266 .289 .447 .247 5.8 111-C 5 1.9
2007 FLO MLB 469 43 20 4 16 60 14 123 3 2 0.6 .237 .262 .405 -.178 .239 .267 .419 .230 -1.4 111-C 2 0.8
2008 KCA MLB 317 29 22 0 12 41 7 82 7 0 -1.1 .255 .278 .444 -.107 .252 .277 .451 .249 7.2 55-C 9 1.8


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:31 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 300 39 18 1 13 51 14 71 5 1 -0.7 .282 .321 .495 .068 .278 .319 .511 .280 16.5 73-C -1 2.7
75o 285 31 16 1 10 41 12 69 4 1 -0.6 .257 .293 .439 -.079 .254 .291 .453 .253 5.9 70-C -1 1.7
60o 281 29 15 1 10 39 11 69 4 1 -0.6 .250 .284 .423 -.123 .247 .282 .436 .245 2.9 69-C -1 1.4
50o 276 27 14 1 9 36 10 68 4 1 -0.5 .243 .276 .407 -.163 .240 .275 .420 .237 0.3 68-C -1 1.1
40o 270 24 13 1 8 32 9 67 3 1 -0.5 .233 .265 .385 -.222 .230 .263 .397 .225 -3.4 66-C -1 0.7
25o 262 21 12 1 7 27 8 66 3 1 -0.5 .222 .252 .361 -.286 .220 .250 .372 .211 -7.3 64-C -1 0.2
10o 241 15 10 0 5 16 6 62 2 1 -0.4 .197 .221 .304 -.435 .195 .219 .314 .172 -15.1 60-C -2 -0.7
Weighted Mean 268 25 14 1 8 32 10 66 3 1 -0.5 .241 .273 .402 -.160 .238 .272 .415 .234 -0.7 66-C -1 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

42%

32%

32%

0.90

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 268 25 14 1 8 32 10 66 3 1 -0.5 .241 .273 .402 -.160 .238 .272 .415 .234 -0.7 66-C -1 1.0
2010 (age 31) 229 20 12 1 7 29 8 54 2 1 -0.4 .243 .275 .405 -.154 .243 .277 .423 .235 0.1 57-C 0 0.9
2011 (age 32) 235 20 12 0 7 28 8 56 3 1 -0.3 .241 .272 .396 -.173 .241 .273 .413 .232 -0.7 58-C -1 0.6
2012 (age 33) 184 15 9 1 6 24 6 42 2 0 -0.2 .243 .272 .401 -.163 .243 .274 .419 .234 -0.2 47-C -1 0.5
2013 (age 34) 198 18 11 1 7 26 7 47 3 1 -0.2 .254 .285 .421 -.105 .254 .287 .440 .245 1.3 50-C 0 0.6
2014 (age 35) 193 16 9 0 6 23 9 46 2 1 -0.1 .245 .287 .396 -.143 .245 .289 .413 .238 0.2 49-C -2 0.2
2015 (age 36) 165 15 9 0 6 22 8 34 2 1 -0.1 .261 .303 .436 -.046 .261 .305 .455 .256 1.2 43-C -3 0.2

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .258 .297 .434
vs RHP .235 .265 .382
Split +.023 +.032 +.052
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.9 -1.0 1.0 $1,250,000 1.3 2.7
2010 -1.1 0.0 0.9 $1,300,000 2.2 4.4
2011 -2.0 -1.0 0.6 $1,050,000 0.7 2.8
2012 -1.3 -1.0 0.5 $1,050,000 0.8 2.1
2013 1.0 0.0 0.6 $1,425,000 2.8 4.1
2014 -0.4 -2.0 0.2 $875,000 0.2 1.3
2015 2.9 -3.0 0.2 $1,000,000 1.1 2.1
Peak 3.8 $3,425,000 7.8 17.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .253 .237 .211 .234
2010 .254 .233 .204 .235
2011 .254 .229 .195 .232
2012 .257 .222 .195 .234
2013 .264 .235 .200 .245
2014 .254 .230 .201 .238
2015 .250 .226 .219 .256


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 32% 0% 17%
2010 55% 13% 19%
2011 60% 29% 16%
2012 74% 39% 14%
2013 82% 53% 15%
2014 85% 65% 10%
2015 93% 78% 8%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

47

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Jeff Newman 1979 49 11 Vance Wilson 2004 35
2 Bill Schroeder 1989 43 12 Bill Haselman 1997 35
3 John Bateman 1971 43 13 Bob Montgomery 1975 34
4 Jason LaRue 2005 42 14 Jim Hegan 1951 33
5 Brian Johnson 1998 41 15 Pat Borders 1994 32
6 Damian Miller 2000 40 16 Bob Kearney 1987 32
7 Joe Oliver 1996 39 17 George Mitterwald 1976 31
8 Ron Karkovice 1994 38 18 Mike Matheny 2001 30
9 Matt Batts 1952 36 19 Ed Herrmann 1977 28
10 Paul Casanova 1972 36 20 Nelson Santovenia 1992 28

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Not that the Marlins aren't taking 2008 seriously, but they didn't bother to tender Olivo a contract. That meant cutting loose someone who last year caught 122 games, threw out about a third of opposing basestealers, and slugged a respectable .405. There are warts there, but when a team's payroll is going to be less than 20 percent of its revenue sharing receipts, they can afford to go to arbitration with their starting catcher. Interested teams should consider that Olivo would make a better platoon half (843 career OPS vs. LHP; 620 vs. RHP) than full-timer.

2007

Olivo has always had a bit of power, but, when the Baseball Fairy was handing out talent, she neglected to give little Miggy the ability to tell a ball from a strike from a duckbilled platypus. In 2006, Oliva became just one of a dozen players in the last half-century to come to the plate 400 or more times and failed to draw ten walks. Four of Oliva`s nine walks were intentional, giving him an unintentional walk rate of one every 90.4 plate appearances. That`s not quite as bad as Alfredo Griffin`s 1984 (4 UIBB in 441 PA, or 110.3 UIBB/PA) or the immortal Whitey Alperman`s two walks in 442 PA for the 1909 Dodgers, but it`s still special. Olivo also seemed to fall victim to late-season LoDuca-itis, as he had a dreadful final two months. Without any secondary skills, he`s not a good bet to build on his 2006 numbers. His nickname should be `Extra-Virgin.`

2006

A deft pickup at the trade deadline, Olivo looked like the player the Mariners were so happy to get in the Freddy Garcia trade down the stretch, making it all the stranger that the Padres didn`t offer him a contract for 2006. He`s agile behind the plate, has a whip for an arm, and he runs well for a catcher. The Marlins should have a cheap, intriguing catching combo in Olivo and Josh Willingham.

2005

A couple pitches each game sail past Olivo, who watches them with a curious expression on his face, as if surprised by the flying ball. Olivo does have an arm, and a little power. At 25, he was too old to blame all his problems on bad instruction. Nonetheless, PECOTA sees better times ahead.

2003

The Sox are high on Olivo, who was the prize Kenny Williams got from Oakland in exchange for Chad Bradford. With the trade of Mark Johnson and the limp bat of Josh Paul, Olivo has next to nothing to hold him back. Olivo has a flashy arm but isn’t otherwise known for his defense, so an Olivo/Paul offense/defense combo could be in the making, especially after they get the bones of Sandy Alomar out of the way.

2002

Olivo came over from the A's for Chad Bradford in what looked like a great trade for both teams. 2001 was a lost season, though: he regressed defensively, didn't hit, and questions about his attitude persisted. He bounced back to have a great season in the Arizona Fall League and should get at least a cup of coffee in Chicago this year.

2001

Miguel Olivo might be the best-throwing catcher in the minors, and he’s a good receiver and plate-blocker as well. He’s also a very impatient hitter, and there are some concerns about his attitude. For the second straight year, he lost time to injury, this time a broken hamate bone. He’s been traded to the White Sox for Chad Bradford; while he may need another year in A ball, he’s Chicago’s best catching prospect.

2000

Another product of the A's peerless Dominican program, this was his first year in a full-season league after starring in both the Dominican and Arizona rookie leagues. Behind the plate, he's shown a good arm and great receiving and plate-blocking skills. He still needs to pick up English to improve his work with pitchers, and he needs to work on his command of the strike zone, but he already has good power. It will be a couple of years before he's ready.


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