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Pablo Ozuna
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Second Base
Bats R
Age 34
5' 11"
190 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 CHA MLB 203 25 12 2 2 17 7 16 6 6 0.3 .328 .365 .444 .055 .317 .358 .429 .265 6.8 30-LF -12 7-3B -2 -1.2
2007 CHA MLB 85 9 3 0 0 3 3 9 3 0 0.4 .244 .280 .282 -.384 .231 .268 .269 .200 -4.1 7-3B -1 5-LF 1 -0.4
2008 CHA MLB 69 5 3 0 0 6 2 3 0 2 -1.6 .281 .313 .328 -.191 .281 .313 .328 .217 -2.0 11-3B 2 6-2B -2 -0.2
2008 LAN MLB 33 6 0 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 0.7 .219 .242 .375 -.297 .219 .242 .375 .206 -1.2 9-2B -1 -0.3


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:24 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 127 21 7 1 2 12 6 10 2 1 0.1 .319 .361 .432 .076 .319 .362 .438 .276 6.1 34-2B -4 0.3
75o 118 17 6 1 1 11 5 10 2 1 0.0 .295 .336 .393 -.041 .295 .337 .399 .255 2.5 32-2B -4 0.0
60o 112 14 5 1 1 10 5 10 1 1 0.0 .278 .319 .366 -.123 .279 .319 .371 .240 0.3 31-2B -4 -0.2
50o 107 12 4 1 1 9 5 9 1 1 0.0 .266 .306 .346 -.182 .266 .306 .351 .228 -1.2 30-2B -4 -0.3
40o 101 10 4 1 0 8 4 9 1 1 0.0 .252 .290 .322 -.252 .252 .290 .327 .213 -2.8 28-2B -4 -0.4
25o 93 8 3 1 0 7 4 9 1 1 0.0 .234 .271 .293 -.337 .234 .271 .298 .194 -4.4 27-2B -3 -0.6
10o 32 1 1 0 0 1 1 4 0 0 0.0 .173 .200 .192 -.637 .173 .201 .195 .046 -3.7 13-2B -2 -0.5
Weighted Mean 92 10 4 1 1 8 4 8 1 1 0.0 .270 .310 .352 -.157 .270 .310 .357 .231 0.4 26-2B -3 -0.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

36%

48%

37%

38%

0.95

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 34) 92 10 4 1 1 8 4 8 1 1 0.0 .270 .310 .352 -.157 .270 .310 .357 .231 0.4 26-2B -3 -0.2
2010 (age 35) 92 9 3 0 0 7 4 8 2 0 0.0 .253 .296 .315 -.265 .250 .292 .316 .217 -1.4 26-2B -3 -0.2
2011 (age 36) 80 6 3 0 0 6 3 8 1 0 0.0 .243 .277 .296 -.332 .240 .273 .297 .198 -1.1 24-2B -3 -0.2
2012 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .285 .329 .381
vs RHP .264 .302 .337
Split +.021 +.027 +.044
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -2.8 -3.0 -0.2 $400,000 -2.3 0.4
2010 -4.1 -3.0 -0.2 $400,000 -3.1 0.1
2011 -5.0 -3.0 -0.2 $400,000 -2.0 0.0
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .255 .228 .194 .231
2010 .232 .209 .186 .217
2011 .232 .213 .169 .198
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 38% 0% 36%
2010 66% 39% 13%
2011 83% 64% 11%
2012 92% 77% 7%
2013 95% 90% 3%
2014 99% 96% 3%
2015 100% 96% 3%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

25

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Luis Sojo 2000 49 11 Ramon Martinez 2007 23
2 Craig Shipley 1997 45 12 Mike Mordecai 2002 22
3 Bill Pecota 1994 36 13 Joe Girardi 1999 21
4 Alvaro Espinoza 1996 34 14 Rafael Ramirez 1992 19
5 Greg Pryor 1984 32 15 Quinton McCracken 2005 19
6 Emil Verban 1950 31 16 Rey Sanchez 2002 18
7 Juan Castro 2007 28 17 Damaso Garcia 1989 18
8 Darren Lewis 2002 26 18 Don Kolloway 1953 18
9 Lenny Harris 1999 25 19 Ron Washington 1987 18
10 Glenn Beckert 1975 24 20 Jose Vizcaino 2003 17

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

As nice as it was for the Sox to scrape the gunk off Ozuna and give him a shot, there comes a point at which you shouldn't go out of your way to keep doing a guy favors. He's a utility scrub making seven figures, and while he can make contact and run a little, the team has to ask itself why it's paying so much for a manager's pet capable of only modest contributions.

2007

A true utility player, Ozuna`s out-of-character offensive numbers in 2006 led Ozzie Guillen to misuse him as Scott Podsednik`s platoon partner in left. Re-signed for 2007, Ozuna has his fans within the organization, but if the White Sox can identify a more reliable solution for right-handed pop off the bench, he could be squeezed by mid-season.

2006

The White Sox bench combined for -8.6 VORP last year, the fifth-worst figure in baseball. Ozuna was no small part of the problem. Much of his playing time came at third base, and Ozzie Guillen often saw fit to stick him in the leadoff spot. In spite of his performance, Ozuna was signed to a guaranteed contract for 2006. The White Sox have committed worse sins, but they`re dangerously thin on position player talent and aren`t guaranteed to be as fortunate with the injury bug this time around.

2003

The prospect sheen on Ozuna was already fading, but the extra four years tacked on as he entered the country for spring training finished it off. However, all is not lost; with the trade to Colorado, Ozuna is a strong spring training away from swiping a middle infield spot from an equally fringe guy like Brent Butler, and running with it.

2002

Ozuna broke his wrist playing winter ball after the 2000 season, then eventually underwent surgery to repair torn cartilage in the wrist. He missed the entire 2001 season due to the injury and may have been passed by Kevin Hooper in the line of guys waiting for Luis Castillo to get hurt. He's off the prospect track.

2001

He dropped off many prospect lists with a mediocre 1999 campaign after being aggressively pushed to Double-A. He should find his way back onto those lists following an encouraging repeat season with Portland. Pablo Ozuna is a line-drive contact hitter whose biggest improvement was a dramatic surge in walks. Prior to the season, he was moved from shortstop to second base, ostensibly because of a weak throwing arm, but probably because the Marlins had more doubts about Castillo than Gonzalez. Implausibly, there is now some thought of trying Ozuna in the outfield. Given Alex Gonzalez’s murky future, the club should swallow hard, put Ozuna back at shortstop, and tolerate his defensive limitations.

2000

Concerns about his throwing arm had the Marlins moving Ozuna to second base last winter. He was one of the youngest players in Double-A in 1999, so his regression as a hitter isn’t too worrisome. The move to second base is, as it puts him behind a better player in Castillo. The potential for a Gonzalez/Ozuna middle infield in 2002, walking a total of 50 times, should send shudders down the spines of Marlin fans. Ozuna will have to show some offensive development in 2000 to maintain his status as a top prospect.

1999

If this organization that didn’t already have J.D. Drew or Rick Ankiel, you’d hear more about Ozuna. Named the best prospect in the Midwest League, he’s the best glove at short in the organization, has great speed, and potentially a great offensive player. He won’t make people forget the AL trio of ARod, Nomar, and Jeter, but within the next two years, the Cardinals are going to have someone who deserves to get mentioned with them.


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