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Jimmy Rollins
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Shortstop
Bats B
Age 30
5' 8"
175 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
SS 1 Jimmy Rollins 90 232 .260 39 6 25 14 .320 .434 5.4
1   2009 Total 90 232 .260 39 6 25 14 .320 .434 5.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 PHI MLB 758 127 45 9 25 83 57 80 36 4 7.5 .277 .334 .478 .015 .271 .328 .466 .277 45.9 154-SS -7 4.3
2007 PHI MLB 778 139 38 20 30 94 49 85 41 6 7.7 .296 .344 .531 .156 .293 .344 .536 .296 68.0 160-SS 8 8.0
2008 PHI MLB 625 76 38 9 11 59 58 55 47 3 9.1 .277 .349 .437 .029 .277 .349 .446 .285 44.4 131-SS 4 5.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:25 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 617 109 39 6 19 72 61 58 39 8 4.7 .319 .391 .516 .240 .320 .391 .524 .315 65.1 144-SS 2 7.1
75o 613 101 36 5 17 68 58 59 37 7 4.6 .307 .376 .488 .166 .307 .376 .495 .303 54.0 143-SS 2 6.2
60o 610 93 34 5 15 65 55 60 34 7 4.4 .295 .362 .462 .097 .295 .362 .469 .291 43.7 143-SS 2 5.3
50o 609 90 33 5 15 63 54 61 34 7 4.4 .290 .357 .452 .070 .290 .357 .459 .286 39.8 142-SS 2 5.0
40o 607 86 32 5 14 62 52 61 32 7 4.3 .284 .349 .438 .033 .284 .349 .444 .280 34.3 142-SS 3 4.5
25o 605 83 31 5 13 60 51 62 31 7 4.2 .279 .343 .427 .005 .279 .344 .433 .274 30.2 142-SS 3 4.1
10o 602 76 29 5 11 56 48 63 29 6 4.1 .267 .328 .400 -.067 .267 .329 .406 .261 19.7 141-SS 3 3.2
Weighted Mean 656 103 36 6 16 69 59 65 37 8 4.4 .293 .360 .458 .088 .293 .360 .464 .288 44.5 153-SS 3 5.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

14%

50%

12%

5%

0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 30) 656 103 36 6 16 69 59 65 37 8 4.4 .293 .360 .458 .088 .293 .360 .464 .288 44.5 153-SS 3 5.2
2010 (age 31) 627 94 36 5 16 68 54 64 32 6 4.2 .290 .355 .457 .054 .286 .351 .457 .286 37.4 146-SS 1 4.7
2011 (age 32) 612 90 32 4 16 66 55 62 30 6 4.0 .290 .357 .451 .049 .286 .352 .451 .285 34.8 143-SS 0 4.2
2012 (age 33) 550 73 28 4 13 57 48 54 22 4 3.5 .286 .351 .437 .017 .282 .347 .437 .278 25.8 129-SS -2 2.9
2013 (age 34) 556 75 28 5 15 62 49 57 20 4 2.8 .281 .349 .446 .022 .278 .344 .447 .278 21.4 130-SS -3 2.5
2014 (age 35) 515 63 26 3 12 60 46 54 18 4 2.5 .273 .343 .420 -.029 .269 .338 .421 .270 14.6 121-SS -3 1.7
2015 (age 36) 451 51 24 3 9 50 37 46 13 3 1.9 .273 .339 .416 -.041 .269 .334 .417 .266 9.8 107-SS -7 1.0

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .297 .360 .462
vs RHP .291 .359 .454
Split +.006 +.001 +.007
LgAvg +.004 -.004 +.007

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 27.6 3.0 5.2 $15,550,000 48.5 63.5
2010 24.9 1.0 4.7 $13,625,000 40.8 55.2
2011 23.5 0.0 4.2 $12,650,000 36.3 48.2
2012 16.8 -2.0 2.9 $8,550,000 24.9 33.6
2013 17.1 -3.0 2.5 $7,400,000 20.8 26.8
2014 10.8 -3.0 1.7 $4,775,000 13.0 16.4
2015 7.7 -7.0 1.0 $2,925,000 7.4 10.6
Peak 21.2 $52,125,000 184.3 243.7


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .303 .286 .274 .288
2010 .303 .287 .265 .286
2011 .302 .283 .267 .285
2012 .295 .278 .252 .278
2013 .293 .271 .255 .278
2014 .299 .271 .253 .270
2015 .288 .266 .240 .266


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 5% 0% 14%
2010 11% 2% 16%
2011 15% 6% 13%
2012 26% 10% 12%
2013 43% 21% 12%
2014 49% 30% 6%
2015 62% 44% 5%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

43

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Ray Durham 2002 55 11 Tony Fernandez 1993 32
2 Brian Roberts 2008 43 12 Harold Reynolds 1991 32
3 Rafael Furcal 2008 41 13 Nomar Garciaparra 2004 30
4 Chuck Knoblauch 1999 39 14 Tito Fuentes 1974 28
5 Alan Trammell 1988 37 15 Lou Whitaker 1987 28
6 Tony Bernazard 1987 37 16 Miguel Tejada 2004 28
7 Omar Vizquel 1997 37 17 Red Schoendienst 1953 27
8 Roberto Alomar 1998 36 18 Jose Offerman 1999 27
9 Don Buford 1967 34 19 Alvin Dark 1952 25
10 Bert Campaneris 1972 32 20 Bill Doran 1988 25

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Rollins won last year's NL MVP award, but on a per-game basis his offense was a cut below that of the game's top hitters. He wasn't even the league's most productive shortstop-that was Hanley Ramirez. Still, he was always there, setting a record for most plate appearances in a season, and is without a doubt one of the most visually dynamic players in the game. Add in his key role on a Cinderella team, and that he was the only one of that team's three MVP candidates not to lose any time to injury, and it's not surprising that he was crowned. Fun Stat: Most home runs in a season with 20 or more triples: Willie Mays 35 in 1957; Jim Bottomley 31 in 1929; J-Roll 30 in 2007. Chances are we just saw Rollins' peak, and while he has several good seasons ahead of him, he won't be mentioned in the same breath as Mays again.

2007

Rollins entered 2006 on a 36-game hitting streak, but only managed to extend it by two games before falling into a slump that dragged on until the end of May. Although his batting average never completely recovered, his power soared to new heights, essentially doubling his normal homer output. Still, his overall value didn`t appreciably change. Any further increase in power should push him away from the leadoff spot, something his low on-base percentage has been arguing for years only to lose the debate to the powerful counter-argument made by his speed.

2006

Instead of building on his career-highs in BA/SLG/OBP from 2004 on his way to a Durham career (Ray, not N.C.), Rollins instead took a small step backwards. However, he did have his best year stealing bases since 2001, and his range was improved as a result of better positioning. Rollins had said privately for years that he couldn`t wait to leave the Phillies as a free agent, though the departures of Bowa and Wade plus a Brinks truckload o`cash may well change that. At 27, he`s headed into his walk year. It`s time for him to establish himself as a top-flight player.

2005

Rollins has always run well and been extremely durable, and the fact that he cut his strikeouts by nearly 40% while mashing 69 extra-base hits suggests that he's on the verge of several All-Star appearances. PECOTA doesn't expect too much more improvement, but at the very least Rollins looks a safe bet for a Ray Durham career path, which is pretty darn good.

2003

A seemingly disastrous sophomore season for Rollins wasn’t all bad. He failed to show any development in his game early in the season and was awful in the second half. But Rollins hiked his walk rate a bit and smacked 54 extra-base hits, just one less than he collected in his supposedly stellar rookie season. Bowa has made suggestions about Rollins bunting more and slapping at pitches for infield hits. Since Rollins’s line drive power is his primary offensive strength, this is a recipe for disaster.

2002

Rollins’s season probably would have won him the Rookie of the Year Award in most years, even if on the whole it wasn’t as valuable as most people believed. His walk rate is barely adequate, and he’s not a .300 hitter. On the other hand, he’s at an age when even a good prospect is typically in the high minors, and he plays a position at which some offensive holes can be forgiven. A real hitting coach could make a big difference to a guy like Rollins.

2001

Just like in 1999 at Double-A, Jimmy Rollins suffered through a hideous start both offensively and defensively while adjusting to the new level. Once he worked through it, he produced some outstanding results for the rest of the year. Rollins has good range in the field and more pop in his bat than you would expect from a 5'8 player. The Phillies will have to decide whether they want to risk exposing him to the Vet's boo-birds at the start of the season, but whenever he takes over, he’ll fill a large hole in the lineup. He’s a sleeper candidate for Rookie of the Year.

2000

At 20, he was young for Double-A and hopelessly overmatched early in the season. He managed to turn it around somewhat in the second half, but he needs more time at Reading. There are some reports that the Phillies are considering moving him to second base, which wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

1999

Has his defenders, and to be fair, he was battling a pair of injuries while being among the FSL's youngest. Still, the year was completely miserable with the bat, and Rollins' glove, while good, will not make him a major-league regular. Except perhaps with the Mets.

1998

The Phillies’ second-round pick in 1996, he’s another small (5'8", 165) switch-hitter. He was also the only position player in the system to be named a league top 10 prospect by Baseball America, just sneaking in at #10 in the Sally League. A cousin of Oriole outfielder Tony Tarasco, he’s very good on the bases and in the field, but needs to work on hitting, particularly on getting his average and walks up. I like the across-the-board improvement in his second season, even though I think he’s a good candidate to fall back a bit in high-A ball.


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