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J.C. Romero
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws L
Age 33
5' 11"
205 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Mid J.C. Romero 15 0 4.19 1.38 11 11 1 13 1 1 0 1.9

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2006 ANA MLB 1 2 0 65 0 48.3 57 28 31 3 58% .344 -5 1.76 6.71 -5 6.27 10.8 5.1 5.1 0.6 -7.4 0.0 0.2
2007 PHI MLB 1 2 0 51 0 36.3 15 25 31 1 65% .169 -2 1.10 1.24 6 2.80 3.3 5.6 7.4 0.3 18.7 2.3 1.4
2007 BOS MLB 1 0 1 23 0 20.0 24 15 11 2 56% .338 -16 1.95 3.15 -2 2.41 12.1 6.8 4.3 1.0 6.5 0.6 0.8
2008 PHI MLB 4 4 1 81 0 59.0 41 38 52 5 63% .238 -4 1.34 2.75 5 3.36 6.3 4.9 7.0 0.8 19.0 2.2 2.5


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/10/09 5:48 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 4 2 3 67 0 58.7 48 31 48 4 54% .262 4 1.33 2.92 0 3.06 7.2 4.1 6.3 0.6 17.5 1.5 2.3
75o 3 2 2 60 0 53.0 47 30 43 4 54% .281 2 1.45 3.68 0 3.88 7.9 4.5 6.3 0.7 10.8 0.9 1.5
60o 3 2 2 56 0 49.7 47 29 40 4 54% .292 0 1.53 4.13 0 4.36 8.4 4.7 6.3 0.7 7.4 0.6 1.2
50o 3 2 2 54 0 48.3 46 29 39 4 54% .296 0 1.55 4.30 0 4.54 8.5 4.8 6.3 0.7 6.2 0.5 1.0
40o 2 2 1 50 0 44.7 45 28 36 4 54% .309 -2 1.64 4.84 0 5.13 9.0 5.0 6.3 0.8 2.7 0.2 0.6
25o 2 2 1 46 0 41.3 44 28 34 4 54% .320 -3 1.72 5.33 0 5.65 9.5 5.2 6.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
10o 1 2 0 34 0 31.3 39 24 25 3 54% .354 -9 1.98 6.98 0 7.42 11.0 6.0 6.3 0.9 -6.5 -0.6 -0.4
Weighted Mean 3 2 2 55 0 49.0 46 29 40 4 54% .293 0 1.53 4.17 0 4.41 8.4 4.7 6.3 0.7 6.5 0.6 1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

7%

18%

49%

29%

0.87

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA DEF ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2009 (age 33) 3 2 2 55 0 49.0 46 29 40 4 54% .293 0 1.53 4.17 0 4.41 8.4 4.7 6.3 0.7 6.5 0.6 1.0
2010 (age 34) 3 2 2 55 0 49.0 48 29 38 4 54% .295 -3 1.56 4.12 0 4.34 8.7 4.7 5.9 0.7 5.2 0.6 0.8
2011 (age 35) 3 2 1 55 0 48.0 48 30 38 4 52% .305 -3 1.63 4.30 0 4.52 8.9 5.0 6.1 0.7 3.1 0.5 0.5
2012 (age 36) 2 1 1 39 0 36.3 34 24 29 2 56% .294 -3 1.60 4.10 0 4.35 8.3 5.3 6.1 0.5 2.4 0.4 0.4
2013 (age 37)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .210 .331 .292
vs RHB .240 .365 .378
Split -.030 -.035 -.086
LgAvg -.020 -.021 -.054

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2009 1.0 $1,675,000 6.0 2.8
2010 0.8 $1,475,000 4.9 3.7
2011 0.5 $1,100,000 2.8 2.7
2012 0.4 $1,000,000 2.3 1.9
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 3.1 $3,775,000 18.3 14.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 3.88 4.54 5.65 4.41
2010 3.39 4.68 5.78 4.34
2011 3.53 4.77 7.09 4.52
2012 3.58 4.81 6.50 4.35
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 29% 0% 7%
2010 46% 26% 9%
2011 60% 50% 6%
2012 76% 57% 9%
2013 84% 76% 6%
2014 90% 81% 8%
2015 96% 90% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

25

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Curt Leskanic 2001 33 11 Scott Schoeneweis 2006 24
2 Ron Perranoski 1969 33 12 Mike DeJean 2003 23
3 Mike Williams 2002 31 13 Marshall Bridges 1964 23
4 Darold Knowles 1975 29 14 Steve Barber 1971 22
5 Jamie Easterly 1986 28 15 Chuck McElroy 2000 20
6 Bruce Ruffin 1996 28 16 Trever Miller 2006 19
7 Alan Mills 1999 27 17 Johnny Klippstein 1960 19
8 Ed Farmer 1982 26 18 Hal White 1952 19
9 Frank Papish 1950 25 19 Turk Lown 1957 19
10 John Wyatt 1968 24 20 Jason Grimsley 2000 19

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Romero seemed to be trending downward over the last few seasons, so it's hard to fault the Red Sox for cutting bait as soon as they did. The problem with using a pitcher whose control is as poor as Romero's as a match-up lefty is that he's so likely to issue a walk that you don't know if he'll end up facing the hitter you wanted him to or the Vlad Guerrero-type that's due up next. The other problem with using Romero specifically as a match-up lefty is that he's useful against right-handed hitters, and such use fails to exploit his more valuable ability to work whole innings. All of that said, Romero was indeed successful in shutting down lefties when he did pitch to them last year, holding them to .208/.333/.312 with no home runs. The Phillies re-signed him to a three-year, $12 million deal with a club option for 2011. This was perhaps a bit overzealous, but given the state of their bullpen and the free agent market, their importunate reaction is understandable.

2007

Before 2006, Scioscia had been a little haphazard about getting with the situational program and employing lefty specialists with any regularity. To his credit, he seemed to recognize there are better ways to use the last spot in a bullpen during the regular season. This year was different, as the Angels made a point of going out and getting Romero from the Twins. He succeeded as the team`s token situational lefty, holding southpaws to .202/.298/.303. Unfortunately, even with that going for him, he got beaten up a little too regularly and fell out of favor before the All-Star break. His walk rate, already a barely-tenable four unintentionals per nine innings from 2003 to 2005, spiked to almost five. Discarded, Romero signed up with the Red Sox. In his place the Angels have added lefties Darren Oliver, through free agency, and Phil Seibel, via trade Boston.

2006

Like Crain, Romero was most often put into situations where he had to solve other people`s problems. He wasn`t as effective at it, allowing hitters to reach base at a .442 clip with runners already on, which is sort of like using a Molotov cocktail to put out a grease fire. Dealt to the Angels this winter, he has a good shot at bouncing back and pitching in something more than a lefty specialist role.

2005

The other half of the setup tandem that turned over so many save situations to Joe Nathan, Romero didn't mow down lefties with his usual aplomb, but the Twins realize that he's not just a situational lefty. He's a more valuable thing indeed, a rubber-armed middle reliever in the old sense of the term, ready to work in situational roles or toss two or three innings when a starter has to hit the showers early. He kills the running game, and keeps the ball on the ground, which proves particularly handy with men on base, and he can overpower hitters with his low-90s sinker. As long as he keeps that walk rate in check, he's a valuable asset. The Twins rewarded him with a two-year deal.

2003

With the wealth of alternatives the Twins have to choose from to stock the back end of the rotation, they had to find some way to put all of the quality arms they have knocking around to work. In Romero’s case, they kept him as the third lefty, and he wound up being the rubber-armed strong man in one of the league’s best pens. He’s good with runners on base, keeps the ball low and in the infield, and squelches the running game. After a season like this, he may never go back to the rotation, making him a left-handed Keith Foulke in terms of what might have been, and the new Eddie Guardado in terms of what is.

2002

This smallish left-hander throws lots of stuff down, and he battled back problems for a large part of the season. Romero was eventually sent down to Edmonton, where he pitched well. He'll be in the mix for the swing-man/fifth-starter role in spring training, and he's capable of pitching well either out of the pen or in the rotation. Most clubs that have seven candidates for the #5 starter job are looking at a bunch of guys who resemble Mike Oquist on a good day, or who’ve had more stitches in their arms than a box of baseballs. The Twins actually have a few guys with high ceilings vying for those spots.

2001

J.C. Romero started the season on the DL with a strained shoulder but came back flashing his same nice assortment: low-90s heat, a slurve, a cutter, and a change-up. He may get pushed into situational relief because left-handed hitters struggle to do anything against him. While Romero will compete with Kinney for the last rotation slot, he’d be better off in the pen, getting spot starts against teams like the A’s.

2000

The wild left-hander came over from Puerto Rico to play for the University of Mobile and has shot up the ladder since being drafted in 1997. This summer, he jumped to the majors after pitching in the Pan Am Games. He generates groundball outs, flashing a good fastball, curve and slider. Romero is the guy who’s going to make Eddie Guardado expendable.

1999

Romero chewed up the Eastern League in a middle relief role. He's fighting the well-entrenched bias against small pitchers, but his performance demands some attention. In the mix with Miller and Cumberland for an 11th man spot with the Twins, and he has the best success record.


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