Dusty Ryan

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Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players

Projected Playing Time
Tigers Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 8 Dusty Ryan 5 11 .235 1 0 1 0 .322 .409 0.2

1 2009 Total 5 11 .235 1 0 1 0 .322 .409 0.2

Historical Stats

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	WMI	A	375	49	13	2	6	35	44	102	3	4	-2.9	.245	.344	.354	-.372	.196	.273	.283	.193	-27.6	85-C -4	-1.6
2007	TGR	Rk	20	1	0	0	0	1	4	5	0	0	0.0	.063	.250	.063	-.827	.059	.200	.059	.000	-10.4	4-C -1	-0.6
2007	LAK	A+	168	17	0	0	7	22	18	52	0	1	-2.5	.214	.310	.359	-.359	.181	.266	.309	.201	-12.2	32-C -2	-0.7
2008	ERI	AA	338	46	17	2	15	50	38	95	2	1	0.0	.253	.340	.476	-.077	.229	.310	.445	.257	4.1	65-C -2 7-1B 1	1.3
2008	TOL	AAA	81	12	7	2	2	13	6	27	0	0	-0.5	.315	.370	.548	.339	.324	.378	.608	.320	10.5	17-C 0	1.0
2008	DET	MLB	50	6	2	0	2	7	5	13	0	0	0.1	.318	.380	.500	.189	.318	.380	.500	.302	4.2	14-C 2	0.7

EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 2:05 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	532	71	27	2	21	53	55	144	3	2	-1.2	.263	.346	.465	.060	.263	.348	.480	.284	27.7	125-C -1	4.9
75^o	500	57	23	2	17	52	49	143	3	2	-1.1	.243	.323	.422	-.053	.243	.325	.435	.264	12.9	118-C -1	3.4
60^o	475	48	21	2	15	52	44	141	2	2	-1.0	.228	.305	.389	-.138	.228	.307	.402	.247	2.8	112-C -2	2.3
50^o	462	44	20	2	13	51	42	140	2	2	-1.0	.221	.297	.374	-.177	.221	.299	.386	.239	-1.5	109-C -2	1.8
40^o	450	40	19	2	12	51	40	139	2	1	-0.9	.214	.289	.360	-.216	.214	.291	.371	.231	-5.5	107-C -2	1.4
25^o	430	35	17	2	10	50	37	136	2	1	-0.9	.203	.276	.337	-.276	.203	.278	.348	.218	-11.3	102-C -2	0.7
10^o	391	26	14	1	8	48	31	131	2	1	-0.7	.185	.254	.297	-.379	.185	.256	.307	.193	-19.6	93-C -2	-0.4
Weighted Mean	491	49	21	2	15	54	45	147	3	2	-1.0	.224	.301	.381	-.152	.224	.303	.393	.243	0.1	116-C -1	1.9

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
31%	49%	27%	10%	1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 24)	491	49	21	2	15	54	45	147	3	2	-1.0	.224	.301	.381	-.152	.224	.303	.393	.243	0.1	116-C -1	1.9
2010 (age 25)	409	39	18	2	13	46	38	122	2	1	-0.7	.225	.301	.388	-.134	.227	.307	.406	.245	1.3	98-C -2	1.6
2011 (age 26)	410	40	18	2	13	48	37	113	2	1	-0.6	.232	.307	.399	-.103	.235	.313	.417	.250	3.2	98-C -1	1.5
2012 (age 27)	444	45	19	2	15	53	41	127	2	1	-0.5	.227	.304	.395	-.118	.230	.310	.413	.248	2.1	105-C -3	1.4
2013 (age 28)	437	44	18	1	15	52	41	121	2	1	-0.4	.223	.302	.394	-.125	.226	.308	.411	.247	1.4	104-C -1	1.2
2014 (age 29)	476	49	19	1	16	58	46	125	2	1	-0.3	.226	.305	.391	-.122	.229	.311	.409	.247	1.3	113-C -1	1.0
2015 (age 30)	394	36	15	1	13	45	36	108	1	1	-0.2	.215	.290	.374	-.179	.217	.296	.391	.236	-1.0	94-C 1	0.8

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.240	.321	.410
vs RHP	.219	.293	.365
Split	+.020	+.028	+.045
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	1.5	-1.0	1.9	$2,025,000	1.9	7.3
2010	2.2	-2.0	1.6	$1,925,000	2.4	7.3
2011	4.6	-1.0	1.5	$2,325,000	4.8	9.2
2012	3.9	-3.0	1.4	$2,200,000	3.5	9.4
2013	3.2	-1.0	1.2	$1,975,000	2.2	7.5
2014	3.9	-1.0	1.0	$2,050,000	2.7	5.8
2015	-1.4	1.0	0.8	$1,750,000	1.3	5.1
Peak			8.6	$7,975,000	17.6	46.6

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.264	.239	.218	.243
2010	.267	.247	.223	.245
2011	.274	.248	.221	.250
2012	.272	.237	.218	.248
2013	.273	.250	.210	.247
2014	.280	.250	.207	.247
2015	.264	.238	.211	.236

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	10%	0%	31%
2010	27%	13%	28%
2011	43%	27%	28%
2012	44%	32%	25%
2013	52%	41%	25%
2014	65%	55%	28%
2015	71%	58%	23%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

63

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Justin Towle	1998	66		11	Nick Hundley	2008	45
2	Creighton Gubanich	1997	53		12	Kevin Brown	1998	45
3	Ozzie Virgil	1981	51		13	Jason Dubois	2004	45
4	B.J. Waszgis	1995	51		14	Joe Depastino	1998	45
5	Steve Lomasney	2002	49		15	Chris Ashby	1999	44
6	Brock Peterson	2008	48		16	Chad Moeller	1999	44
7	Terry McGriff	1988	47		17	James Bonnici	1996	44
8	Jeff Manto	1989	46		18	Geronimo Gil	2000	43
9	Luke Montz	2008	46		19	Scott McClain	1997	43
10	Joe Citari	1988	46		20	Justin Ruggiano	2007	43

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