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Kelly Shoppach
Cleveland Indians [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Catcher
Bats R
Age 29
6'
220 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Rays Depth Chart (updated: 03-19)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
C 9 Kelly Shoppach 45 289 .238 35 13 35 0 .337 .437 11.5
1   2010 Total 45 289 .238 35 13 35 0 .337 .437 11.5

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 BUF AAA 87 11 8 0 4 9 6 25 0 1 -1.4 .282 .356 .538 -.007 .253 .322 .468 .263 2.8 21-C 1 0.6
2006 CLE MLB 120 7 6 0 3 16 8 45 0 0 -1.6 .245 .297 .382 -.171 .239 .297 .385 .236 -0.7 32-C 5 0.8
2007 CLE MLB 177 26 13 0 7 30 11 56 0 0 0.0 .261 .310 .472 -.008 .256 .310 .481 .266 6.6 47-C 3 1.2
2008 CLE MLB 403 67 27 0 21 55 36 133 0 0 0.5 .261 .348 .517 .121 .256 .347 .533 .292 28.3 98-C -2 3.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 1:44 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 476 74 30 1 27 82 46 141 0 1 -1.6 .294 .372 .564 .265 .293 .371 .588 .315 48.3 113-C 2 6.4
75o 430 55 24 1 22 69 39 134 0 1 -1.4 .266 .343 .505 .111 .264 .341 .526 .290 28.2 102-C 0 4.4
60o 399 45 21 1 19 60 35 128 0 1 -1.2 .247 .323 .468 .012 .246 .322 .487 .273 17.0 95-C -1 3.2
50o 389 42 20 1 18 58 34 126 0 1 -1.2 .242 .317 .456 -.020 .240 .316 .475 .268 13.7 93-C -1 2.8
40o 376 39 18 1 17 54 32 124 0 1 -1.1 .235 .310 .441 -.058 .233 .308 .460 .261 10.0 90-C -1 2.4
25o 350 32 16 1 14 48 29 118 0 0 -1.0 .220 .294 .412 -.134 .219 .293 .429 .247 3.1 84-C -2 1.6
10o 309 24 13 0 11 39 24 109 0 0 -0.8 .200 .272 .369 -.245 .199 .271 .385 .225 -5.2 75-C -3 0.5
Weighted Mean 420 49 22 1 20 63 37 135 0 1 -1.2 .248 .324 .469 .016 .247 .322 .488 .273 16.7 100-C 0 3.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

36%

35%

17%

0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 29) 420 49 22 1 20 63 37 135 0 1 -1.2 .248 .324 .469 .016 .247 .322 .488 .273 16.7 100-C 0 3.0
2010 (age 30) 419 48 21 1 19 61 37 133 0 0 -1.0 .245 .323 .460 .017 .247 .326 .486 .271 13.5 100-C 1 2.6
2011 (age 31) 341 34 18 0 14 47 30 109 0 0 -0.7 .240 .315 .438 -.030 .242 .318 .462 .262 7.6 82-C -2 1.6
2012 (age 32) 339 34 18 0 15 48 30 106 0 0 -0.6 .236 .312 .445 -.030 .238 .315 .469 .262 6.4 82-C -2 1.4
2013 (age 33) 307 30 16 0 13 43 25 98 0 0 -0.4 .241 .314 .446 -.022 .243 .316 .470 .263 5.3 75-C -2 1.0
2014 (age 34) 232 19 10 0 9 32 20 71 0 0 -0.3 .221 .305 .407 -.106 .222 .308 .429 .250 1.3 58-C -2 0.4
2015 (age 35) 238 19 11 0 9 33 20 82 0 0 -0.2 .222 .300 .405 -.116 .224 .303 .427 .247 0.9 59-C -2 0.4

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .263 .341 .492
vs RHP .243 .316 .450
Split +.020 +.026 +.042
LgAvg +.020 +.024 +.038

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 17.6 0.0 3.0 $5,075,000 17.0 24.3
2010 16.4 1.0 2.6 $4,525,000 14.1 19.4
2011 10.1 -2.0 1.6 $2,625,000 6.7 10.2
2012 10.0 -2.0 1.4 $2,475,000 5.8 9.2
2013 9.4 -2.0 1.0 $2,100,000 4.5 6.3
2014 3.8 -2.0 0.4 $1,125,000 0.4 1.6
2015 3.2 -2.0 0.4 $1,100,000 0.5 2.0
Peak 10.0 $13,375,000 48.6 71.1


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .290 .268 .247 .273
2010 .284 .269 .240 .271
2011 .275 .256 .233 .262
2012 .281 .260 .238 .262
2013 .275 .247 .234 .263
2014 .271 .247 .230 .250
2015 .262 .241 .203 .247


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 17% 0% 17%
2010 34% 8% 11%
2011 45% 20% 9%
2012 54% 29% 7%
2013 68% 41% 3%
2014 79% 54% 4%
2015 84% 65% 5%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

46

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Dave Duncan 1974 49 11 Bob Geren 1990 33
2 George Mitterwald 1974 49 12 Craig Wilson 2006 32
3 Ozzie Virgil 1986 47 13 Jody Davis 1986 31
4 Mike Macfarlane 1993 46 14 Ron Karkovice 1992 31
5 Andy Seminick 1949 38 15 Charles Johnson 2000 30
6 Tim Laudner 1987 38 16 Vic Correll 1975 28
7 Bill Schroeder 1987 36 17 Lance Parrish 1985 28
8 Steve Yeager 1978 36 18 Gene Green 1962 28
9 Hank Foiles 1958 34 19 John Orsino 1967 27
10 Hector Villanueva 1993 34 20 Jim Lemon 1957 27

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

It's hard to find a backup catcher this good. Hell, it's hard to find a starting catcher this good. Shoppach makes a lot of outs, but half of his hits go for extra bases, and he's a very good defender. If there's a problem it's that he's in the wrong organization. He'll have to wait out his team-control years to move elsewhere and blossom as a starter.

2007

At this point, Shoppach is officially on the backup catcher career path. He`s a pretty good defender, has decent power, doesn`t hit for average, and strikes out a lot. He`ll get a couple of everyday assignments during his career due to positional scarcity, but in the end he`ll have played thirteen years for eight different teams.

2006

Shoppach is a top-shelf defensive catcher, drawing rave reviews for his game calling. Offensively, he has major league power and takes a lot of walks. He doesn`t really have much more to prove in Triple-A. The flaw in his game, and it`s a big one, is that he averages a strikeout per game, leaving little room for error in his other at-bats. He improved a bit in this area in 2005. With Mirabelli gone, he`s in line to be the No. 2 catcher, but he might have more value to a team that wants to give him a chance to compete for the starting job.

2005

Shoppach's biggest assets have long been his arm and defense, the former having cast some doubt after shoulder surgery in the fall of 2002. Despite some rumors about declines in his defense, Shoppach drew raves for his quick release and arm strength from both the Sox front office and scouts. He had a rough year in terms of batting average and strikeouts, but his walks were back up and he flashed some real power for the first time. He had a little trouble adjusting to the more advanced pitchers in Triple-A, but a solid second half looked to put him in line for Boston some time in 2005—at least until the Sox re-signed both Mirabelli and Varitek. His future now lies either as a backup to Varitek in 2006 or with another organization.


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