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Matt Stairs
Philadelphia Phillies [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Designated Hitter
Bats L
Age 41
5' 9"
215 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2009 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Phillies Depth Chart (updated: 08-09)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
LF 5 Matt Stairs 5 11 .240 7 2 7 0 .336 .426 -0.1
RF 6 Matt Stairs 5 11 .240 7 2 7 0 .336 .426 -0.1
PH 9 Matt Stairs 15 31 .240 7 2 7 0 .336 .426 -0.1
3   2009 Total 25 53 .240 7 2 7 0 .336 .426 -0.1

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2006 KCA MLB 261 31 14 0 8 32 31 52 0 0 -0.2 .261 .352 .429 -.043 .247 .349 .408 .267 4.9 9-1B -1 0.4
2006 TEX MLB 88 6 4 0 3 11 6 22 0 0 0.7 .210 .273 .370 -.296 .198 .270 .346 .212 -3.4 -0.4
2006 DET MLB 44 5 3 0 2 8 3 12 0 0 -0.4 .244 .295 .463 -.187 .220 .273 .415 .233 0.2 0.0
2007 TOR MLB 405 58 28 1 21 64 44 66 2 1 -2.7 .289 .368 .549 .192 .279 .365 .549 .303 30.9 37-1B -2 32-LF -4 2.3
2008 TOR MLB 368 42 11 1 11 44 41 87 1 1 -1.3 .250 .342 .394 -.072 .245 .342 .396 .260 5.9 7-LF -8 5-RF 0 -0.5
2008 PHI MLB 19 4 1 0 2 5 1 3 0 0 0.1 .294 .316 .706 .351 .294 .316 .706 .319 2.2 0.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/7/09 10:26 PM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 298 44 14 1 13 46 38 62 2 1 -1.8 .290 .386 .499 .181 .290 .386 .507 .304 19.9 73-DH 2.0
75o 284 38 13 1 11 42 33 61 2 1 -1.6 .276 .366 .469 .096 .277 .366 .476 .289 13.4 70-DH 1.3
60o 277 34 12 1 10 40 31 60 1 1 -1.5 .269 .355 .453 .052 .270 .356 .460 .280 10.2 68-DH 0.9
50o 275 34 12 1 10 40 30 59 1 1 -1.5 .268 .352 .449 .041 .268 .353 .456 .278 9.4 67-DH 0.8
40o 258 27 11 1 8 35 25 57 1 1 -1.4 .252 .328 .415 -.058 .253 .329 .421 .259 2.8 64-DH 0.1
25o 245 23 10 1 7 32 21 55 0 1 -1.2 .241 .311 .390 -.129 .242 .311 .396 .244 -1.5 61-DH -0.4
10o 235 20 9 1 6 30 19 53 0 1 -1.2 .234 .299 .374 -.176 .234 .299 .380 .234 -4.0 59-DH -0.7
Weighted Mean 291 35 13 1 10 41 31 63 1 1 -1.5 .263 .345 .439 .016 .263 .346 .446 .270 8.7 71-DH 0.6

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

19%

53%

31%

25%

0.84

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2009 (age 41) 291 35 13 1 10 41 31 63 1 1 -1.5 .263 .345 .439 .016 .263 .346 .446 .270 8.7 71-DH 0.6
2010 (age 42) 98 8 4 0 3 14 10 20 1 0 -0.5 .247 .328 .406 -.092 .244 .324 .406 .255 0.8 28-DH 0.1
2011 (age 43)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 44)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 45)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 46)
-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 47)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .240 .320 .397
vs RHP .272 .360 .478
Split -.032 -.040 -.080
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year BRAA FRAA Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2009 -1.0 0.0 0.6 $1,125,000 3.5 2.0
2010 -2.1 0.0 0.1 $475,000 -1.1 0.6
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --
Peak 0.8 $875,000 2.2 3.5


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2009 .289 .278 .244 .270
2010 .272 .257 .183 .255
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --
2015
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2009 25% 0% 19%
2010 82% 38% 13%
2011 91% 79% 8%
2012 92% 88% 4%
2013 100% 98% 0%
2014 100% 100% 0%
2015 100% 100% 0%

Most Comparable Players

Similarity Index

20

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Brian Downing 1992 44 11 Jeff Conine 2007 35
2 Willie McCovey 1979 44 12 Gary Gaetti 1999 34
3 Tony Perez 1983 43 13 Carl Yastrzemski 1980 34
4 Jose Cruz 1988 42 14 Willie Stargell 1981 33
5 Hal McRae 1986 42 15 Hank Sauer 1958 32
6 Mickey Vernon 1959 39 16 B.J. Surhoff 2005 32
7 Ken Griffey 1991 39 17 Bob Thurman 1958 32
8 Reggie Jackson 1987 38 18 Stan Musial 1962 29
9 Andres Galarraga 2002 38 19 Enos Slaughter 1957 29
10 Harold Baines 2000 35 20 Dave Philley 1961 29

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2008

Stairs reversed what seemed like a fade into oblivion last year with his best season since he was a regular with the A's. He even played 600 innings in the field without hurting himself or those around him, which may be a bigger surprise than his .297 EqA. A new two-year deal will take him through age 41; how much he plays will depend on the health and performance of Lind, Overbay, and Frank Thomas.

2007

The One-Ton Human Hamster Wheel is slowing to a close. Stairs probably has 200 decent platoon at-bats left in his stick, but he`s having more trouble drawing walks as his power fades, as pitchers can challenge him without fear of reprisal. He`s fully into the itinerant phase that often marks the end of an average player`s career; the minor league deal he signed with the Blue Jays in December marks his fourth club since the July trading deadline.

2006

For the second straight year, Stairs enjoyed playing on a 100-loss team so much that he re-upped before the season ended for barely a million dollars. He`s the one true take`n rake hitter on the roster, and that has value on a team where no one else managed even 50 walks. His defensive `flexibility` consists mostly of his ability to play both first base or an outfield corner with an alarming lack of dexterity. Has no obvious role on the team that doesn`t take playing time away from a young hitter, but this could still end well if the Royals trade him for prospects at the trading deadline. Since they`ve punted on that opportunity each of the last two years, why would they change now?

2005

Okay, sentiment still has its place in the organization. Stairs' slugging average dropped 110 points in his first season as a Royal, but the team loved his clubhouse influence so much that they signed him for another year before the season had even ended. He's not part of the solution, he's part of the problem, especially since he's a menace to his pitchers in left field, and at DH he's a menace to Pickering's playing time.

2003

Wonder Hamster moves on. Played pretty well in his role last season, filling in for nasty injuries and against particular right-handers. His swing resembles a golf swing more than a baseball swing, and he still doesn’t leave anything behind when he takes his rips. He’s still got some plate discipline and some power, but he’s more of an endgame Hail Mary now than someone you want out there on a regular basis, even in a platoon role. Now that he’s a Pirate, he should become a lunch bucket hero in the Steel City.

2002

Stairs was everything the Cubs should have expected him to be and then some, but apparently they didn’t know what they were getting. Don Baylor’s whining about Stairs’s pull-hitting ways was probably the single silliest thing any manager said all year (Non-Brenly Division). Did Baylor think he was getting Gerald Perry? A team like the Braves would have killed to have Stairs at first base in 2001. The Wonder Hamster is still a valuable platoon player and will be a great pickup for some team.

2001

After coming into camp in shape in 1999, Matt Stairs spent the next off-season following the Rod Beck conditioning program. It made him a hero to the Superfans on Sheffield and Addison, not to mention a few BP writers, but it hurt his play in 2000. Traded to the Cubs for a waiver claim on Eric Ireland, he'll play first base as long as Sammy Sosa is in the fold. Stairs will huff and puff and hustle wherever he plays, but like John Kruk, he’s a good bet to fade quickly.

2000

Before the 1999 season, Stairs decided to change his beer-league body. He dumped 25 pounds of fat, put on 12 of muscle and quit smoking. I guess this isn't the same game Babe Ruth played after all. Given how cavalier the A's are about who plays where, they could probably swap Jason Giambi and Matt Stairs between right field and first base and improve themselves defensively, except Stairs might kill himself hustling to run down pop-ups. One of the more entertaining moments of the season was when he crushed a Keith Foulke palmball into the Coliseum seats, followed by plenty of White Sox whining that the A's must be stealing signs. Foulke's out pitch is the palmball, so how hard would it have been for Stairs to know what was coming?

1998

Eric Walker deserves some credit for this guy. Eric’s a good analyst who has always advocated more playing time for Stairs, and everyone who really studied minor league performance knew he could hit. 1997 was no fluke, but don’t be surprised to see a late season dropoff from him in 1998. His defense was spotty and entertaining; a corner outfield spot really pushes his limits.

1997

Having learned their lesson with Geronimo Berroa, the A’s snatched Matt Stairs off the scrap pile, gave him some playing time and weren’t disappointed. Another very good minor league hitter, Stairs was given up on when it was decided he’d never make a good infielder. Now he’s an outfielder with a good, accurate arm who can give a team excellent left-handed pop. Hopefully, his role will expand next season.

1996

Way to go, Sandy. Matt Stairs is another Geronimo Berroa, but from the left side. Has been beating up on pitching in AAA and AA for a few years in the Montreal and Boston chains, but a bad rep in terms of defense and attitude have kept him from getting the MLB playing time he deserves. Realistically, if he gets the starting LF job in Oakland, I expect him to hit something like .275/.335/.450 or so. Very quick hands. Suffers from the phantom first step on defense a slight lifting of the lead foot before taking that first step. That can cost you 3-5 feet on all the edges of your range, and major league hitters will eat that kind of mistake alive.


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