Chris Stewart

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2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 7:36 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	239	30	14	1	7	31	15	31	2	1	-0.4	.281	.332	.451	.033	.277	.332	.463	.276	11.0	59-C 3	2.7
75^o	226	24	12	1	6	27	13	30	2	1	-0.3	.262	.312	.410	-.069	.259	.312	.421	.257	4.8	56-C 3	2.1
60^o	213	20	10	1	4	23	12	29	1	1	-0.3	.244	.292	.371	-.167	.241	.292	.381	.237	-0.5	53-C 3	1.6
50^o	209	18	10	1	4	22	11	29	1	1	-0.3	.240	.287	.361	-.194	.237	.287	.370	.232	-1.8	53-C 3	1.5
40^o	201	16	9	1	3	20	10	28	1	1	-0.3	.230	.276	.339	-.247	.227	.276	.348	.220	-4.3	51-C 3	1.2
25^o	194	14	8	1	3	19	10	28	1	1	-0.2	.222	.267	.321	-.292	.219	.267	.329	.209	-6.3	49-C 3	1.0
10^o	169	9	5	0	2	14	7	25	1	1	-0.2	.197	.239	.267	-.426	.195	.239	.274	.174	-10.9	44-C 3	0.5
Weighted Mean	214	20	10	1	4	25	12	29	1	1	-0.3	.244	.292	.371	-.167	.241	.292	.381	.237	-0.5	54-C 4	2.1

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
34%	54%	26%	32%	0.91

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 26)	214	20	10	1	4	25	12	29	1	1	-0.3	.244	.292	.371	-.167	.241	.292	.381	.237	-0.5	54-C 4	2.1
2009 (age 27)	218	21	10	1	5	24	13	29	2	1	-0.3	.247	.298	.373	-.154	.248	.302	.390	.240	0.2	55-C 2	1.6
2010 (age 28)	205	20	10	1	5	24	12	28	2	1	-0.3	.254	.304	.395	-.109	.255	.309	.412	.249	2.1	52-C 3	1.7
2011 (age 29)	201	20	10	1	5	24	13	27	2	1	-0.3	.263	.317	.404	-.070	.264	.321	.422	.257	3.5	51-C 3	1.7
2012 (age 30)	259	29	12	1	6	30	17	35	2	1	-0.2	.254	.312	.389	-.104	.255	.317	.406	.251	1.8	64-C 3	1.3
2013 (age 31)	258	27	11	1	6	29	15	33	2	1	-0.2	.252	.301	.378	-.140	.253	.305	.395	.243	0.6	64-C 2	0.9
2014 (age 32)	236	24	11	1	5	25	14	30	2	1	-0.2	.250	.300	.380	-.138	.250	.305	.397	.244	0.5	59-C 3	0.9

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.259	.309	.394
vs RHP	.240	.286	.359
Split	+.019	+.024	+.035
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	0.2	1.9	2.1	$2,950,000	3.8	4.3
2009	0.2	1.3	1.6	$2,250,000	2.8	5.2
2010	0.4	1.3	1.7	$3,025,000	5.5	8.6
2011	0.5	1.2	1.7	$3,375,000	6.3	9.7
2012	0.3	1.0	1.3	$2,575,000	3.9	6.4
2013	0.2	0.7	0.9	$1,700,000	1.8	3.6
2014	0.2	0.7	0.9	$1,750,000	1.8	3.3
Peak			9.3	$11,325,000	24.0	37.8

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.257	.232	.209	.237
2009	.247	.231	.205	.240
2010	.257	.239	.214	.249
2011	.271	.244	.213	.257
2012	.269	.227	.198	.251
2013	.252	.236	.211	.243
2014	.257	.230	.216	.244

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	32%	0%	34%
2009	36%	12%	40%
2010	45%	19%	44%
2011	50%	26%	45%
2012	60%	41%	30%
2013	66%	54%	25%
2014	68%	56%	22%

55

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Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Alex Delgado	1992	40		11	John Flaherty	2003	33
2	Pete Beeler	1979	36		12	Pedro Grifol	1971	33
3	Rod Barajas	1981	36		13	Sandy Alomar	1982	33
4	Javier Cardona	1970	36		14	Gary Bennett	1960	33
5	Mike Amrhein	1973	35		15	Jim Foster	2007	32
6	Jeff Torborg	1992	35		16	Luis Pujols	1975	32
7	Joe Depastino	1975	34		17	Mike Matheny	1969	32
8	Brook Fordyce	1975	34		18	Henry Blanco	2000	31
9	Mike Sweeney	1957	34		19	Guillermo Garcia	1979	30
10	Mike Macfarlane	1998	33		20	Jim Campanis	2005	30

Player Comments

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2007

Chris Stewart is a catching prospect with a slingshot of an arm and a BB gun of a bat. There`s not much to get excited about here, but there`s also no reason that Stewart can`t be a perfectly adequate second-string catcher in the big leagues.

2006

Be skeptical of the modest power breakout at Birmingham; it came from a guy who got a lot of days off, and whose bat was regarded as a joke by most observers coming into the season. Still, for someone who projects at a .217 EqA, Stewart`s likely to have a big league career, as he has one of the four or five best catching arms in baseball.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	BIR	2A	350	39	21	0	11	51	24	37	3	3	-1.5	.286	.341	.460	.136	.252	.298	.419	.243	4.9	84-C 7	3.3
2006	CHR	3A	301	40	17	3	4	28	15	35	3	0	-2.8	.265	.314	.393	-.012	.246	.296	.384	.237	-0.5	77-C 8	3.0
2006	CHA	MJ	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.0	.000	.000	.000	-1.394	.000	.000	.000	.000	-2.3		0.0
2007	OKL	3A	172	18	8	0	2	21	12	19	0	2	-0.1	.242	.294	.333	-.230	.239	.291	.329	.218	-4.3	43-C 6	1.4
2007	TEX	MJ	43	4	2	0	0	3	3	6	0	0	-0.2	.243	.300	.297	-.268	.243	.300	.297	.217	-0.9	12-C 1	0.3

Historical Stats