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Julian Tavarez
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Pitcher
Throws R
Age 35
6' 2"
195 lbs.

Player Profile

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Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Most Comparable Pitchers | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
Pos Name IP GS ERA WHIP H BB HR SO W L SV VORP
Spot Julian Tavarez 40 7 5.27 1.58 95 31 8 45 4 5 0 3.2

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2005 SLN MJ 2 3 4 74 0 65.7 68 19 47 6 52% .323 -4 1.32 3.42 5.06 4.38 10.1 2.5 6.1 0.9 12.0 2.3 1.8
2006 BOS MJ 5 4 1 58 6 98.7 110 44 56 10 58% .324 -13 1.56 4.56 4.95 4.45 9.5 3.9 4.9 0.9 12.4 0.3 2.6
2007 BOS MJ 7 11 0 34 23 134.7 151 51 77 14 55% .306 -6 1.50 5.14 5.15 5.90 10.1 3.0 4.8 0.9 1.7 1.0 1.9


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 1:56 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
90o 6 6 1 39 13 104.7 110 37 61 9 53% .297 -4 1.40 4.04 4.01 4.03 8.9 2.9 4.8 0.7 19.3 2.4 2.9
75o 6 6 1 38 12 97.0 109 36 56 9 52% .309 -7 1.49 4.67 4.50 4.64 9.5 3.1 4.7 0.8 10.6 1.5 2.0
60o 5 6 0 37 12 91.3 108 35 52 9 52% .318 -9 1.56 5.16 4.88 5.10 9.9 3.2 4.7 0.9 4.8 0.9 1.4
50o 5 6 0 36 11 87.7 106 35 49 9 52% .324 -11 1.61 5.47 5.12 5.39 10.2 3.3 4.6 0.9 1.4 0.6 1.0
40o 4 6 0 35 11 82.3 104 34 46 9 52% .332 -13 1.67 5.93 5.49 5.84 10.7 3.4 4.6 1.0 -3.2 0.1 0.5
25o 3 5 0 33 9 73.0 100 32 40 10 51% .347 -18 1.80 6.84 6.20 6.69 11.5 3.6 4.5 1.1 -10.5 -0.7 -0.3
10o 2 4 0 25 6 48.3 81 25 25 9 51% .388 -30 2.17 9.40 8.27 9.09 14.1 4.3 4.2 1.5 -21.4 -1.8 -1.5
Weighted Mean 4 5 0 34 10 80.0 95 31 45 8 52% .320 -10 1.58 5.27 4.95 5.21 10.0 3.2 4.7 0.9 3.2 0.7 1.2

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

17%

43%

29%

37%

1.15

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP Stuff WHIP ERA PERA ERA H9 BB9 K9 HR9 VORP WXRL WARP
2008 (age 35) 4 5 0 34 10 80.0 95 31 45 8 52% .320 -10 1.58 5.27 4.95 5.21 10.0 3.2 4.7 0.9 3.2 0.7 1.2
2009 (age 36) 4 4 0 33 8 72.7 87 27 40 7 51% .320 -11 1.56 5.08 4.89 5.01 10.1 3.0 4.6 0.9 3.6 0.7 1.0
2010 (age 37) 5 5 1 46 9 90.0 108 32 52 9 51% .322 -11 1.55 5.00 4.86 4.93 10.1 2.9 4.7 0.9 2.7 1.0 0.7
2011 (age 38)
-- out of baseball --
2012 (age 39)
-- out of baseball --
2013 (age 40)
-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 41)
-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHB .291 .382 .440
vs RHB .273 .342 .405
Split +.018 +.041 +.034
LgAvg +.009 +.034 +.039

Valuation

Year WARP MORP Mean VORP Upside
2008 1.2 $1,825,000 3.6 5.1
2009 1.0 $1,675,000 3.8 3.8
2010 0.7 $1,275,000 2.8 2.7
2011 0.2 $500,000 0.1 1.6
2012 0.2 $600,000 0.7 0.8
2013 0.1 $525,000 0.4 0.7
2014 0.1 $575,000 0.6 0.2
Peak 3.4 $3,700,000 11.0 14.6


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 4.64 5.39 6.69 5.21
2009 4.49 5.45 6.66 5.01
2010 4.02 5.06 6.54 4.93
2011
-- out of baseball --
2012
-- out of baseball --
2013
-- out of baseball --
2014
-- out of baseball --


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 37% 0% 17%
2009 54% 31% 15%
2010 72% 57% 13%
2011 88% 73% 5%
2012 91% 88% 4%
2013 93% 92% 4%
2014 95% 94% 3%

Most Comparable Pitchers

Similarity Index

58

Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend Rank Pitcher Year Score Trend
1 Charles Nagy 2002 58 11 Bob Knepper 1989 47
2 Pat Hentgen 2003 58 12 Tim Leary 1994 44
3 Bobby Witt 1999 54 13 Roger Craig 1965 44
4 Dick Ruthven 1986 52 14 Camilo Pascual 1969 43
5 Shane Reynolds 2003 51 15 Burt Hooton 1985 42
6 Jack Billingham 1978 51 16 Mike Moore 1995 42
7 Joaquin Andujar 1988 50 17 Eric Show 1991 41
8 Ron Darling 1995 49 18 Cal McLish 1961 41
9 Rick Mahler 1988 49 19 Bob Walk 1992 40
10 Bob Feller 1953 48 20 Rick Rhoden 1988 40

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Still crazy after all these years, Tavarez earned a 10-day suspension for sucker-punching Joey Gathright after landing on him in a close play at home plate--in a spring training game. Scored upon in 18 of his first 33 appearances, Tavarez trudged through an unhappy summer, but in an Alamo moment in late August, the Sox inserted him into the rotation. The results were compelling, if not revelatory; as a starter he posted a 4.01 ERA in 33.2 IP, generated a ton of groundballs, and yielded only two homers. He also won over a hostile Fenway crowd that had booed him lustily all season long, paving the way for a return for Year Two of his $6.7-million deal and perhaps a job as a back-end starter or swingman, a role in which his salary might suddenly seem like a bargain.

2006

His volatility on the mound has decreased somewhat in recent years, but while Tavarez has settled in as a quality bullpen guy, he`s still not the marryin` kind. He`s played for six teams in seven years, leaving a trail of bewildered pitching coaches, teammates, and fans behind him. The two-year contract he signed with St. Louis worked out well for both parties: Tavarez pitched 130 innings with a sub-3.00 ERA, which can cause all sorts of Sins of Perception. His performance, and his agent, have allowed him to make a serious case for a four-year deal. His increased K rates and tendency to throw groundballs make him a reasonable risk, but he had to settle for two years with Boston.

2005

The psycho reliever du jour put together the best season of his career since '95. What's also impressive is that Tavarez has coughed up exactly two home runs in his last 148 innings. If you're that stingy with dingers, there's that much room for error. There's no reason he can't an effective, if mercurial, middle man for the next few seasons.

2003

Ugly peripherals, bad results, with a gift for saying dumb stuff around reporters, and you wonder why the line to sign this guy isn’t miles long? Tavarez did perform better after he got over a self-inflicted sore shoulder (he made an emergency start on three days’ rest without telling anyone his shoulder hurt), but he’s a back-of-the-rotation option at best.

2002

Tavarez has never been consistent enough as a reliever to be as useful in the pen as he is at the bottom of a rotation. To the Cubs’ credit, they signed him to be the #4 starter. He did not wear down during the season and was throwing in the mid-90s in September. He’s simply a five-inning starter. If you accept him as a good fifth starter with some anger-management issues, you won’t be disappointed. Even with Tapani’s departure, Tavarez might get squeezed out of the rotation by July.

2001

Courtesy of his outstanding sinker, Julian Tavarez gets a ton of ground-ball outs. In small parks like Coors or Wrigley Field (now that he’s signed with the Cubs), that’s handy. But don’t expect great things. Although he’s physically mature and entering a good age range to build on last year’s success as a starter, his peripheral numbers aren’t so hot, and the Cubs are a significantly worse defensive team than the Rockies. Given his headhunter reputation, maybe he’s being brought in as a mentor for Ben Christensen.

2000

Never as good as his reputation, Tavarez remains nothing more than the Jose Bautista of the second half of the decade. For his first two seasons with the Giants, he blinded fans with his 90-mph fastball, so much that they didn't notice his poor peripherals. Last season it all caught up with him. He's still young and throws hard, so he'll find someone else he can blind.

1999

What's to like? Tavarez throws in the 90s and gets into "hot streaks," two items which make him a fan favorite. But at the end of the season, his numbers are no different than the Jose Bautistas of the world that Tavarez is supposed to be an improvement upon. Its hard to think that there are overrated middle relivers, but Tavarez is the poster boy for the concept.

1998

Tavarez threw harder than anyone on the team, which made him a fan favorite. He had 24 straight appearances in mid-season without allowing an earned run, which made him a fan favorite. He made 89 appearances, which made him a fan favorite. And when he was done, his numbers were barely distinguishable from a normal Jose Bautista season, who wasn’t a fan favorite. No matter how hard he throws, he doesn’t strike anyone out, which suggests a very uneventful career.

1997

Tavarez was probably doomed in the AL after his run-in with an umpire during a brawl in Milwaukee. The Giants apparently plan to keep him in the bullpen, which is a good idea for a few more years at least, since there are major concerns over whether Tavarez’ slight build can hold up to regular rotation work. What he has to work on changing is finding a breaking pitch that works against left-handed batters; good times or bad, Tavarez has real problems against them (they’ve hit .329/.383/.514 against him on his career).

1996

The best prospect in the organization, Tavarez is a rail-thin 6'2", 165-pounder who had always worked as a starter before being used as a setup man for Mesa this year. The Indians are, reasonably enough, concerned about his stamina as a starter, and may try to use him in relief until he fills out.


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