J.R. Towles

<< PECOTA Home

Player Search

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time
Astros Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)

Pos Order Name PT% PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP

C 7 J.R. Towles 60 390 .270 51 11 46 9 .335 .441 17.8

1 2008 Total 60 390 .270 51 11 46 9 .335 .441 17.8

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 8:07 PM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	536	85	33	3	19	73	43	84	13	6	1.8	.293	.364	.496	.132	.295	.367	.506	.292	40.4	126-C 0	6.5
75^o	509	74	30	3	16	65	39	82	12	6	1.7	.283	.351	.472	.070	.285	.354	.481	.282	30.9	120-C 0	5.6
60^o	479	63	27	3	14	58	35	79	11	6	1.5	.272	.338	.447	.004	.275	.340	.455	.270	21.7	113-C 0	4.6
50^o	463	58	25	3	13	54	33	77	11	6	1.4	.267	.331	.434	-.028	.269	.334	.442	.264	17.4	110-C -1	4.2
40^o	453	55	24	3	12	52	32	76	11	6	1.4	.264	.327	.426	-.049	.266	.329	.434	.260	14.7	107-C -1	3.9
25^o	424	46	22	3	10	45	28	73	10	5	1.3	.254	.314	.402	-.110	.256	.317	.410	.249	7.7	101-C -1	3.2
10^o	384	36	18	2	8	37	24	68	9	5	1.1	.242	.298	.372	-.188	.244	.300	.379	.233	0.0	92-C -1	2.3
Weighted Mean	497	66	27	3	14	59	36	82	12	6	1.5	.270	.335	.441	-.009	.273	.338	.450	.267	22.6	117-C -1	4.4

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
33%	66%	10%	10%	0.85

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2008 (age 24)	497	66	27	3	14	59	36	82	12	6	1.5	.270	.335	.441	-.009	.273	.338	.450	.267	22.6	117-C -1	4.4
2009 (age 25)	451	58	24	3	14	55	35	73	11	5	1.1	.271	.341	.446	.008	.270	.338	.446	.271	16.8	107-C -2	3.5
2010 (age 26)	427	54	24	3	13	52	30	68	10	5	0.9	.276	.341	.455	.024	.274	.338	.455	.273	15.8	102-C -2	3.1
2011 (age 27)	413	53	22	2	13	52	33	66	10	4	0.8	.274	.345	.454	.028	.272	.342	.455	.275	13.4	98-C -4	2.5
2012 (age 28)	373	45	20	2	11	46	29	60	8	4	0.7	.277	.346	.453	.030	.276	.343	.453	.275	11.9	89-C -1	2.4
2013 (age 29)	428	50	21	3	11	52	29	64	7	3	0.5	.268	.330	.425	-.041	.266	.328	.425	.261	7.5	102-C -1	1.9
2014 (age 30)	370	41	20	2	11	47	26	55	6	3	0.4	.268	.328	.439	-.026	.266	.326	.439	.264	6.4	89-C -2	1.7

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.283	.347	.459
vs RHP	.265	.329	.428
Split	+.018	+.018	+.032
LgAvg	+.020	+.024	+.038

Valuation

Year	OWARP	DWARP	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2008	1.8	2.6	4.4	$9,850,000	22.4	28.6
2009	1.6	1.9	3.5	$7,550,000	16.0	21.6
2010	1.5	1.6	3.1	$7,125,000	14.8	20.1
2011	1.2	1.3	2.5	$6,000,000	12.0	16.5
2012	1.1	1.3	2.4	$6,100,000	11.8	16.9
2013	0.8	1.1	1.9	$4,475,000	7.0	11.3
2014	0.6	1.0	1.7	$3,950,000	5.3	8.9
Peak			17.7	$33,200,000	83.9	115.0

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2008	.282	.264	.249	.267
2009	.288	.273	.257	.271
2010	.291	.270	.250	.273
2011	.296	.273	.255	.275
2012	.293	.272	.250	.275
2013	.284	.267	.250	.261
2014	.293	.270	.228	.264

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2008	10%	0%	33%
2009	29%	10%	37%
2010	41%	21%	34%
2011	49%	32%	38%
2012	56%	39%	33%
2013	65%	47%	27%
2014	73%	56%	24%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

Towles has had an injury-plagued career so far--a broken finger here, a sore knee there. None of the injuries have been serious, but they`ve limited him to 165 games since being drafted in 2004. That`s a shame, because when Towles is healthy, he`s pretty damn good, with a career average of .311, 60 extra-base hits and very good defensive skills to boot. The only issue is that he turns 23 before spring training and has yet to get out of A-ball. He`s an unproven commodity to be sure, but an interesting one.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2005	LEX	1B	193	35	14	2	5	23	16	29	11	7	0.4	.346	.436	.549	.421	.279	.340	.430	.263	8.4	36-C 0	1.7
2006	LEX	1B	321	39	19	2	12	55	21	46	13	5	-1.4	.317	.382	.525	.318	.260	.305	.422	.251	6.8	58-C 3	2.5
2007	SLM	1C	115	14	3	2	0	11	12	15	3	5	1.1	.200	.339	.278	-.156	.184	.278	.245	.191	-7.8	26-C 0	0.2
2007	CCH	2A	257	47	12	2	11	49	23	35	9	4	1.5	.324	.425	.551	.402	.292	.373	.509	.295	23.7	46-C -3	2.6
2007	ROU	3A	50	5	0	0	0	2	4	7	2	4	0.4	.279	.354	.279	-.164	.250	.327	.250	.198	-1.7	12-C -2	0.1
2007	HOU	MJ	44	9	5	0	1	12	3	1	0	1	0.2	.375	.432	.575	.468	.375	.432	.550	.323	5.8	11-C 1	0.7

Projected Playing Time

Historical Stats