Matt Tupman

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2009 Forecast

(projection generated 3/8/09 12:34 AM)

																-- Equivalents --
Percentile	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
90^o	296	26	14	1	2	21	26	47	0	1	-0.9	.244	.313	.324	-.211	.241	.311	.334	.229	-2.8	72-C -4	0.5
75^o	293	23	12	1	2	20	24	48	0	1	-0.8	.226	.293	.294	-.298	.223	.291	.304	.210	-8.6	71-C -4	0.0
60^o	290	20	10	1	1	19	23	49	0	1	-0.8	.208	.274	.266	-.380	.206	.272	.275	.190	-14.1	71-C -5	-0.7
50^o	289	19	9	1	1	19	22	49	0	1	-0.7	.202	.266	.255	-.412	.199	.264	.263	.182	-16.2	71-C -5	-0.9
40^o	287	17	8	1	1	18	21	50	0	1	-0.7	.190	.253	.237	-.466	.188	.252	.245	.166	-19.6	70-C -5	-1.3
25^o	284	15	7	1	1	17	20	51	0	1	-0.7	.176	.237	.214	-.534	.174	.236	.220	.144	-23.9	69-C -5	-1.8
10^o	274	11	4	0	0	13	17	54	0	1	-0.6	.148	.206	.169	-.663	.146	.205	.175	.076	-31.3	67-C -7	-2.7
Weighted Mean	298	19	9	1	1	19	22	51	0	1	-0.7	.194	.258	.243	-.422	.192	.256	.251	.171	-18.9	72-C -5	-1.0

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate	Improve Rate	Collapse Rate	Attrition Rate	Beta
38%	49%	40%	26%	1.06

Seven-Year Forecast

																-- Equivalents --
Year	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2009 (age 29)	298	19	9	1	1	19	22	51	0	1	-0.7	.194	.258	.243	-.422	.192	.256	.251	.171	-18.9	72-C -5	-1.0
2010 (age 30)	260	15	8	1	1	17	18	45	0	1	-0.5	.196	.255	.246	-.436	.196	.257	.257	.170	-12.2	64-C -5	-0.6
2011 (age 31)	238	14	7	0	1	15	19	42	0	1	-0.3	.202	.270	.255	-.393	.203	.271	.267	.184	-6.1	59-C -5	-0.3
2012 (age 32)	199	11	5	0	1	14	17	34	0	0	-0.2	.204	.277	.251	-.384	.205	.278	.262	.187	-3.8	50-C -2	-0.2
2013 (age 33)	-- out of baseball --
2014 (age 34)	-- out of baseball --
2015 (age 35)	-- out of baseball --

Platoon

Platoon	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs LHP	.165	.228	.181
vs RHP	.202	.269	.266
Split	-.036	-.040	-.085
LgAvg	-.035	-.040	-.079

Valuation

Year	BRAA	FRAA	Tot WARP	MORP	SuperVORP	Upside
2009	-16.1	-5.0	-1.0	$400,000	-22.9	0.0
2010	-14.2	-5.0	-0.6	$400,000	-14.5	0.0
2011	-10.6	-5.0	-0.3	$400,000	-7.9	0.2
2012	-8.3	-2.0	-0.2	$400,000	-4.6	0.1
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --
Peak			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3

Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis

Seven-Year Performance

Year	75%	50%	25%	Weighted Mean
2009	.210	.182	.144	.171
2010	.209	.183	.136	.170
2011	.214	.184	.136	.184
2012	.225	.203	.169	.187
2013	-- out of baseball --
2014	-- out of baseball --
2015	-- out of baseball --

Seven-Year Attrition

Year	Attrition Rate	Drop Rate	Breakout
2009	26%	0%	38%
2010	50%	34%	29%
2011	73%	52%	30%
2012	83%	66%	26%
2013	84%	74%	22%
2014	92%	85%	15%
2015	92%	86%	12%

49

Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend	Rank	Hitter	Year	Score	Trend
1	Randy Gomez	1986	49		11	Michel Hernandez	2008	33
2	Mike Knapp	1994	42		12	Casey Myers	2008	33
3	Tom Lampkin	1993	40		13	Alex Andreopoulos	2002	32
4	Brad Mills	1986	37		14	Tim Marx	1998	32
5	Joe Siddall	1997	36		15	Skip Jutze	1976	31
6	Phil Mankowski	1982	35		16	Cody McKay	2003	30
7	Mike Mahoney	2002	35		17	Donnie Scott	1991	30
8	Charley Lau	1962	35		18	Keith Smith	1991	29
9	Thad Reece	1988	35		19	Fausto Tejero	1998	29
10	Marc Ronan	1999	34		20	Nick Theodorou	2005	29

Player Comments

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2008

If there's a silver lining to the Jason LaRue Experience, it's that the Royals have decided they can get the same performance from a homegrown player at minimum wage. Matt Tupman bats left-handed and will take a walk, but we're strictly talking poor man's Paul Bako territory here.

2007

A left-handed hitter with a .425 OBP in Double-A would normally get your attention, but Mat Tupman has no power, is slower than the Middle East peace process, and he`s already turned 27. The lefty bat will likely keep him stashed away in Triple-A as a team`s emergency catcher for a long time to come.

																		-- Equivalents --
Year	Tm	Lg	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	EqBRR	AVG	OBP	SLG	MLVr	AVG	OBP	SLG	EqA	VORP	Defense	WARP
2006	WIC	AA	280	35	8	1	1	31	48	27	1	1	1.7	.305	.425	.364	-.305	.216	.316	.263	.215	-14.5	64-C -8	-1.1
2006	OMA	AAA	81	9	0	0	0	4	8	6	0	0	0.2	.247	.321	.247	-.474	.203	.272	.203	.159	-8.6	21-C -1	-0.5
2007	OMA	AAA	344	21	16	0	1	32	36	34	2	2	-6.5	.281	.361	.344	-.313	.225	.302	.275	.206	-18.8	85-C -11	-1.6
2008	OMA	AAA	320	36	10	1	4	34	22	44	0	1	-1.9	.229	.285	.313	-.542	.173	.221	.237	.147	-38.3	78-C -13	-3.6

Historical Stats