|
2007 Wakefield`s injury--a stress fracture at the attachment of a rib, an injury nowhere in BP`s database--reduced the rotation to Schilling, Beckett, Lester, Famine, and Pestilence; in this case, two horsemen were enough to herald the apocalypse in Boston. The Sox went 22-31 during Wakefield`s two-month absence, dropping 11 games in the standings. Wakefield`s the leading practitioner of a dying art, and the Sox hold a perpetual option on his services, but 2006 served as a warning that, now that he`s past 40, a big chunk of his innings could quickly disappear off the ledger. 2006 Wakefield was Boston`s best starter in 2005, which says more about the staff than it does about Wakefield, who had a fairly typical season, albeit with the better control than usual. He`s got a throwback contract that essentially gives the team a yearly option for as long as they want it. Wakefield remains very valuable pitcher and should have at least another decent year or two ahead of him. Hoyt Wilhelm posted a 2.16 ERA from age 39 through his retirement at age 48, but that`s not the norm; knuckleballers decline rapidly with age, just like everyone else. 2005 When talking about Wakefield, the conversation inevitably turns either to the fact that he's a knuckleballer or that one pitch from the 2003 ALCS instead of the fact that he's consistently been one of the league's top inning-eaters for a decade. Last year certainly wasn't one of Wakefield's best—his strikeouts were down, homers up—but he's established a history of being able to consistently contribute close to 200 innings of league-average pitching, a commodity not nearly as easy to find as it might seem. Signed for under $5 million for 2005, he'll be worth the dough. 2003 In 2001, Wakefield pitched like an All-Star for the first half of the season before losing his grip, but in 2002, he kept his grip on the entire year. His peripheral stats have noticeably improved, with his strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons topping his previous best. Frequent baserunners, the bane of knuckleball pitchers, have not been a problem for Wakefield as opposing batters hit only .204/.275/.333 (think Gary DiSarcina in an off year). Earlier in his career, Wakefield seemed to be successful only in his first season in each league. His current streak of dominance has broken a pattern of mediocrity, which bodes well for this season. After pitching as a swingman in each of the last four seasons (with 45 to 51 appearances, 15–17 starts, and 140–170 innings each year), he was signed to a bargain deal (three years and $13 million), and will begin the season in the rotation behind Martinez and Lowe. If Wakefield can approach this success in a full-time role, the Red Sox could have starting pitchers win, place, and show in the AL ERA race. 2002 Wakefield belonged on the All-Star team after a first half that put him among the AL’s top three pitchers, but he hit the skids in July and never recovered his early-season form. Wakefield still led the Sox in Adjusted Runs Prevented and was an above-average starter on the whole. Given regular work, he has usually been effective to very effective, which would seem to indicate that he should be placed in the rotation and left there. Jimy was never able to do that; perhaps the new manager will. 2001 He started just 17 games but ranked third on the team with nine stints of at least six innings. Nevertheless, the Sox sent him to the bullpen at every opportunity, and the inconsistent usage wore on him. Given regular work and the occasional Phil Niekro pep talk, Wakefield can be a league-average starter at worst and a good team’s #4 starter with a little luck. Despite all the fighting in 2000, he re-signed with the Sox for 2001. 2000 The knuckleball has given him a reputation for inconsistency, but look at those translated ERAs: he's been the model of consistency on a seasonal basis. His stint as a closer when Tom Gordon went down called to mind a time when just about all knuckleballers were relievers. Wakefield will make $4.5 million in 2000, and would be tradable if other teams realized the value of an average inning-eater who just happens not to be able to hit 80 mph on the fast gun. 1999 League average, inning chewing pitchers have a lot of value, and Wakefield should be able to continue doing just what he's done the past couple of years for another decade or two. My out-on-a-limb prediction: Tim will put up at least one more gem of a season like his Cy Young runner up performance in 1995 before he's through. 1998 Three years after nearly washing out of baseball, two years after nearly winning the Cy Young and just months after a temporary demotion to the pen, Wakefield may have found his niche: middle-of-the-rotation innings-eater. The flutterballer can throw 140 pitches in a game without the ill effects many others would see, although one 165+ pitch performance this season was not a wise move on Williams’ part. Much of his improvement over ’96 was a matter of keeping the ball in the ballpark, which is pretty much in the job description. Signed a three-year, $12 million extension. 1997 That’s more like it. Wakefield’s not a Cy Young threat in a normal year, but as an innings-munching #3 starter he could make some money. Knuckleball pitchers, in my opinion, are hurt more by the Incredible Shrinking Strike Zone [tm] because batters focus on a smaller and smaller hitting area. The threat of the knuckler being a strike is lessened, leading to more walks, more strikeouts, more cripple counts and more home runs. Recommended, but make sure he doesn’t end up in Detroit or Colorado or something. 1996 Collapsed late in the season. Not likely to ever maintain his success for a long period, but stranger things have happened. Has the virtue of health, and as long as you're not expecting him to pitch like he did last year, he can help a ballclub. He could pitch as well as he did in 1995 in 2005.
Might be a perfect "platoon" pitcher. That is, since he has the ability to pitch with varying amounts of rest, spot him only against teams full of free swingers. Let the Kirby Pucketts take their hacks at him, but don't let the Warren Newsons draw their walks. Just an idea.
|