Last update: Thu Oct 30 08:16:00 2008 PT
by Clay Davenport
One million trials A Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers to simulate the playoff series. Each game of the series is given a seperate outcome probability, based on the home team, the team's performance during the regular season, and the expected starting pitcher matchup. Since a different sequence of random numbers is used every day, the results may change slightly from one day to the next, even if there was no game and no change in the pitching matchups. DS = Division series CS = Championship Series WS = World Series ---------- October 30 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 0.0000 Lost 4-3, lose series 4-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 100.0000 Won 4-3, win series 4-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 28 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 11.1606 Suspended at 2-2 mid 6th, trail series 3-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 88.8394 Suspended at 2-2 mid 6th, lead series 3-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 The suspension leaves things slightly more favorable for Tampa Bay than they were prior to the start of yesterday's game, but only just. I actually calculated these numbers by letting the projection program assume a Ray win, and then working in the 60.25% that the Phillies have of winning this game, based on our win expectancy tables (home team starts bottom of sixth tied = .6025). ---------- October 27 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 10.3835 Lost 10-2, trail series 3-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 89.6165 Won 10-2, lead series 3-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 26 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 30.5781 Lost 5-4, trail series 2-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 69.4219 Won 5-4, lead series 2-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 24 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 44.3638 Won 4-2, series tied 1-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 55.6362 Lost 4-2, series tied 1-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Essentially, now, we have a best-of-5 series to play, with Philadelphia having home field advantage, and throwing three lefties in five games. That's why they're still showing up with a substabtial edge. ---------- October 23 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 34.0345 Lost 3-2, trail series 1-0 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 65.9655 Won 3-2, lead series 1-0 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 20 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 100.0000 48.2698 Won 3-1, win series 4-3 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 3-1, lose series 4-3 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 51.7302 Kept waiting LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 19 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 44.4450 21.5487 Lost 4-2, series tied 3-3 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 55.5550 37.4668 Lost 4-2, series tied 3-3 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 40.9845 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Yes, Tampa has home field advantage. However, Boston with Lester has been a better team than Tampa with Garza. Plus, TB has played appreciably worse against LH starters, and takes a much bigger hit than Boston does for facing a RH starter. Philadelphia's WS odds are down precisely because of those L/R splits; with LH Moyer and Hamels, they should match up better with TB. ---------- October 18 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 72.4745 35.2249 Lost 8-7, lead series 3-2 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 27.5255 18.1383 Won 8-7, trail series 3-2 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 46.6368 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 16 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 87.5726 42.6094 Lead series 3-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 12.4274 8.3168 Trail series 3-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 100.0000 49.0738 Won 5-1, win series 4-1 LAD 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 5-1, lose series 4-1 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 15 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 87.5770 47.2104 Won 13-4, lead series 3-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 12.4230 7.9769 Lost 13-4, trail series 3-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 85.0143 39.8423 Lead series 3-1 LAD 100.0000 14.9857 4.9704 Trail series 3-1 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 14 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 68.0210 36.8884 Won 9-1, lead series 2-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 31.9790 20.4791 Lost 9-1, trail series 2-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 84.8809 37.4082 Won 7-5, lead series 3-1 LAD 100.0000 15.1191 5.2243 Lost 7-5, trail series 3-1 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 13 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 40.0293 22.1128 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 59.9707 38.6826 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 66.1935 26.5652 Lost 7-2, lead series 2-1 LAD 100.0000 33.8065 12.6394 Won 7-2, trail series 2-1 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 12 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 40.0205 21.6742 Won 9-8, series tied 1-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 59.9795 39.1820 Lost 9-8, series tied 1-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 76.6588 30.6502 LAD 100.0000 23.3412 8.4936 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 11 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 27.9589 15.0312 Lost 2-0, trail 1-0 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 72.0411 46.7936 Won 2-0, lead 1-0 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 76.5457 29.2940 Won 8-5, lead 2-0 LAD 100.0000 23.4543 8.8812 Lost 8-5, trail 2-0 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 10 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 TB 100.0000 46.9112 26.8489 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 BOS 100.0000 53.0888 33.7071 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 60.1015 25.0832 Won 3-2, lead series 1-0 LAD 100.0000 39.8985 14.3608 Lost 3-2, trail series 1-0 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 7 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 3-2, lose series 3-1 TB 100.0000 46.9355 27.9176 Won 6-2, win series 3-1 CWS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 6-2, lose series 3-1 BOS 100.0000 53.0645 32.7706 Won 3-2, win series 3-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 46.2775 19.1399 LAD 100.0000 53.7225 20.1719 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ---------- October 6 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 26.0611 13.4663 7.5731 Won 5-4, trail 2-1 TB 76.2180 39.0302 23.3689 Lost 5-3, lead 2-1 CWS 23.7820 8.5565 4.1193 Won 5-3, trail 2-1 BOS 73.9389 38.9470 24.0337 Lost 5-4, lead 2-1 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 100.0000 46.1934 19.2910 Won 6-2, win series 3-1 LAD 100.0000 53.8066 21.6140 MIL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 6-2, lose series 3-1 ---------- October 5 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 9.6727 4.6430 2.5928 Trail 2-0 TB 89.5053 42.5522 25.6000 Lead 2-0 CWS 10.4947 3.7831 1.7938 Trail 2-0 BOS 90.3273 49.0217 30.4237 Lead 2-0 CHC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 3-1, lose series 3-0 PHI 69.3311 33.5163 13.8980 Lost 4-1, lead series 2-1 LAD 100.0000 51.6268 19.5193 Won 3-1, win series 3-0 MIL 30.6689 14.8569 6.1724 Won 4-1, trail series 2-1 ---------- October 4 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 9.5691 4.5960 2.5330 Lost 7-5, trail 2-0 TB 89.4899 42.4409 24.9471 Won 6-2, lead 2-0 CWS 10.5101 3.7776 1.7857 Lost 6-2, trail 2-0 BOS 90.4309 49.1855 30.2930 Won 7-5, lead 2-0 CHC 13.8742 9.2926 4.8054 Trail 2-0 PHI 82.3382 37.5508 15.5007 Lead 2-0 LAD 86.1258 45.1522 16.8991 Lead 2-0 MIL 17.6618 8.0044 3.2360 Trail 2-0 ---------- October 3 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 27.3460 14.3969 8.0607 TB 69.1825 33.0691 19.3396 Won 6-4, lead 1-0 CWS 30.8175 11.5034 5.3726 Lost 6-4, trail 1-0 BOS 72.6540 41.0306 25.1529 CHC 13.7936 9.2518 4.9365 Lost 10-3, trail 2-0 PHI 82.4253 37.7232 15.6578 Won 5-2, lead 2-0 LAD 86.2064 45.1000 18.1192 Won 10-3, lead 2-0 MIL 17.5747 7.9250 3.3607 Lost 5-2, trail 2-0 ---------- October 2 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 27.3132 14.7438 7.9143 Lost 4-1, down 1-0 TB 47.0937 23.3092 13.2035 CWS 52.9063 20.2376 9.1403 BOS 72.6868 41.7094 24.5585 Won 4-1, up 1-0 CHC 38.2185 25.1185 13.6369 Lost 7-2, down 1-0 PHI 65.3790 26.6273 11.0080 Won 3-1, up 1-0 LAD 61.7815 33.4645 14.1342 Won 7-2, up 1-0 MIL 34.6210 14.7897 6.4043 Lost 3-1, down 1-0 I did make a change from yesterday; reviewing my notes, I found I had left out a step I used in past years which regressed pitchers back to the man for their teams, leading to some exaggerated responses. That plus yesterday's results push the Red Sox into the favorites role. Note the oddity that comes from a matchup issue - Tampa is a slight underdog to Chicago in the first round, but still more likely to survive the LCS. ---------- October 1 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 45.9791 25.6393 12.5129 TB 51.5756 25.4336 12.8452 CWS 48.4244 15.3718 5.4360 BOS 54.0209 33.5553 19.4431 CHC 71.8831 53.4287 32.2881 PHI 45.2256 13.8896 5.0166 LAD 28.1169 14.0216 4.9657 MIL 54.7744 18.6601 7.4924 As the games get ready to start, I've got the post-season probabilities calculated and here they are. Like last year, I am using left and right-hand records as part of the process; it turns out that every team in the post-season is better against left-handed pitching, with the single exception of Tampa Bay. Its therir bad luck to match up in the first round against one of only two teams with two left-handed starters. I ran this set twice, once with Minnesota and once with Chicago, and took the simple average of the results - at least until we figure out who will actually fill that slot. The Cubs race out to being a clear favorite, but the program doesn't "know" about the injury issues facing Harden and Zambrano. October 14 - unfortunately, an off day in the NL post-season - will be the 100th anniversary of the last Cubs' World Championship celebration, courtesy of Orval Overall's three-hit shutout. ---------- Sept 30 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday LAA 45.9823 24.7034 12.0638 TB 62.5140 30.8331 15.5120 ? 37.4860 12.5744 4.8247 BOS 54.0177 31.8891 18.4782 CHC 71.8324 53.3185 31.9942 PHI 45.2374 13.8974 5.1543 LAD 28.1676 14.0791 4.6073 MIL 54.7626 18.7050 7.3655
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