Last update: Fri Aug 15 18:03:22 2008 PT
by Clay Davenport
One million trials A Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers to simulate the playoff series. Each game of the series is given a seperate outcome probability, based on the home team, the team's performance during the regular season, and the expected starting pitcher matchup. Since a different sequence of random numbers is used every day, the results may change slightly from one day to the next, even if there was no game and no change in the pitching matchups. DS = Division series CS = Championship Series WS = World Series As the games get ready to start, I've got the post-season probabilities calculated and here they are. I did add two new wrinkles this year. One you won't notice; the first ten times I ran it I didn't get enough World Series winners. I finally figured out that my program was cutting short because it didn't know what 'Nov' was on the calendar that gives it input, so it was never playing the seventh game (scheduled for November 1). The other key change was to explicitly incorporate the team's records against left- and right- handed pitchers. Several teams have large advantages: Arizona has a large advantage against LHP, while the Cubs, Rockies, Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees are substantially worse. ---------- October 28 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 100.0000 96.4407 Won 10-5, lead series 3-0 CLE 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 3.5593 Lost 10-5, trail series 3-0 ---------- October 27 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 100.0000 84.3012 Won 2-1, lead series 2-0 CLE 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 15.6988 Lost 2-1, trail series 2-0 ---------- October 25 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 100.0000 71.3728 Won 13-1, lead series 1-0 CLE 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 28.6272 Lost 13-1, trail series 1-0 ---------- October 24 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 100.0000 59.0346 CLE 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 40.9654 We finally got an idea of the pitching matchups, and the system thinks those have helped the Red Sox big time. Lester over Wakefield looks like a big plus from here; he wasn't that much better than Wakefield over the season, but the Rox have a big left/right split that I didn't think the Sox were going to exploit. I also don't think much of replacing what had been two Morales starts with a Cook and an extra Fogg; the system really liked Morales against Boston, probably too much. ---------- October 22 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 100.0000 43.6985 Won 11-2, won LCS 4-3 CLE 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 11-2, lost LCS 4-3 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 56.3015 ---------- October 21 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 48.2972 19.8263 Won 12-2, series tied 3-3 CLE 100.0000 51.7028 27.6577 Lost 12-2, series tied 3-3 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 52.5160 ---------- October 19 -------------------- 1781: Cornwallis surrenders to Washington at Yorktown Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 25.5934 10.8421 Won 7-1, trail series 3-2 CLE 100.0000 74.4066 40.4440 Lost 7-1, lead series 3-2 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 48.7139 Watched and waited ---------- October 17 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 13.1654 5.6375 Lost 7-3, trail series 3-1 CLE 100.0000 86.8346 47.4192 Won 7-3, lead series 3-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 46.9433 In response to a question yesterday, about how Colorado's chance to win the World Series went down despite winning their game against the Diamondbacks Sunday night, I wrote: The explanation lies in the additions I made to keep track of left- and right-handed starters - and how the teams have done against them. The keys: Colorado was quite a bit worse against LHP than RHP. Boston has no LH starters; Cleveland has Sabathia. That gives Cleveland an edge over Boston, in a matchup with the Rockies. Cleveland is actually slightly better against LHP than RHP; Boston is considerably better against RHP. Colorado figures to throw two lefties and two righties, so this is another edge for Cleveland over Boston. Bottom line: While Cleveland and Boston are virtually equal in terms of an overall rating, Cleveland matches up against the Rockies better than Boston does. The increased likelihood that Cleveland would be their opponent cost their odds more than clinching their own World Series slot did (that was a unusually small gain, since they were already at 93% to be the NL representative). ---------- October 16 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 34.3083 14.9900 Lost 4-2, trail series 2-1 CLE 100.0000 65.6917 40.2340 Won 4-2, lead series 2-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 6-4, lose series 4-0 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 100.0000 44.7760 Won 6-4, win series 4-0 ---------- October 15 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 49.7549 22.0017 Series tied 1-1 CLE 100.0000 50.2451 29.0909 Series tied 1-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 7.2158 2.8362 Lost 4-1, trail series 3-0 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 92.7842 46.0712 Won 4-1, lead series 3-0 ---------- October 14 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 49.8100 23.8350 Lost 13-6, series tied 1-1 CLE 100.0000 50.1900 29.5422 Won 13-6, series tied 1-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 21.3234 7.9525 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 78.6766 38.6703 ---------- October 13 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 66.6047 31.9372 Won 10-3, lead series 1-0 CLE 100.0000 33.3953 19.0046 Lost 10-3, trail series 1-0 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 21.3232 7.9284 Lost 3-2, trail series 2-0 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 78.6768 41.1298 Won 3-2, lead series 2-0 ---------- October 12 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 54.4923 28.9245 CLE 100.0000 45.5077 26.0031 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 ARI 100.0000 41.4091 15.8509 Lost 5-1, trail series 1-0 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 58.5909 29.2215 Won 5-1, lead series 5-1 The Boston/Cleveland changes from before are due to the change in Boston's pitching order. ---------- October 9 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 51.8767 28.3933 CLE 100.0000 48.1233 27.3436 Won 6-4, win series 3-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 NYY 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 6-4, lose series 3-1 ARI 100.0000 53.2911 20.9141 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 46.7089 23.3490 ---------- October 8 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 100.0000 58.4371 31.4615 Won 9-1, win LDS 3-0 CLE 82.0046 33.2796 19.6813 Lost 8-4, lead series 2-1 LAA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 9-1, lose LDS 3-0 NYY 17.9954 8.2833 4.2147 Won 8-4, trail series 2-1 ARI 100.0000 53.3912 20.8238 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 COL 100.0000 46.6088 23.8187 ---------- October 7 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 85.2220 46.6985 25.6104 Lead series 2-0 CLE 88.8326 40.3414 23.3710 Lead series 2-0 LAA 14.7780 7.5451 4.0972 Trail series 2-0 NYY 11.1674 5.4150 2.7705 Trail series 2-0 ARI 100.0000 53.5093 20.8803 Won 5-1, win LDS 3-0 PHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 2-1, lose LDS 3-0 CHI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Lost 5-1, lose LDS 3-0 COL 100.0000 46.4907 23.2706 Won 2-1, win LDS 3-0 ---------- October 6 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 85.2065 46.7118 25.5177 Won 6-3, lead series 2-0 CLE 88.8774 40.3049 23.2478 Won 2-1, lead series 2-0 LAA 14.7935 7.5672 4.1004 Lost 6-3, trail series 2-0 NYY 11.1226 5.4161 2.7703 Lost 2-1, trail series 2-0 ARI 88.2668 48.8543 18.9891 Lead series 2-0 PHI 12.6033 5.9966 2.8030 Trail series 2-0 CHI 11.7332 6.2818 3.2279 Trail series 2-0 COL 87.3967 38.8673 19.3438 Lead series 2-0 ---------- October 5 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 63.3779 33.7454 18.3451 CLE 70.6525 33.2108 19.0125 Won 12-3, lead series 1-0 LAA 36.6221 18.8789 10.2515 NYY 29.3475 14.1649 7.2306 Lost 12-3, trail series 1-0 ARI 88.1299 48.7947 19.5415 Won 8-4, lead series 2-0 PHI 12.5620 5.9838 2.8516 Lost 10-5, trail series 2-0 CHI 11.8701 6.3129 3.2755 Lost 8-4, trail series 2-0 COL 87.4380 38.9086 19.4917 Won 10-5, lead series 2-0 ---------- October 4 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 63.3591 35.2756 18.7834 Won 4-0, lead series 1-0 CLE 55.6338 23.4021 13.8875 LAA 36.6409 20.4455 11.0203 Lost 4-0, trail series 1-0 NYY 44.3662 20.8768 10.7743 ARI 69.4649 39.2695 15.6349 Won 3-1, lead series 1-0 PHI 33.0895 15.2279 7.2417 Lost 4-2, trail series 1-0 CHI 30.5351 16.3577 8.3977 Lost 3-1, trail series 1-0 COL 66.9105 29.1449 14.2602 Won 4-2, lead series 1-0 ---------- October 3 -------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday BOS 46.1758 25.0328 12.6819 CLE 55.6533 24.6330 14.4858 LAA 53.8242 29.2702 14.9905 NYY 44.3467 21.0640 10.3485 ARI 48.3655 26.4359 10.6666 PHI 56.4314 26.2087 12.6467 CHI 51.6345 28.2319 14.7397 COL 43.5686 19.1235 9.4403 Last year's initial odds, where the least-likely team from each league advanced. This year's odds are considerably more compact. ---------- October 3 2006 --------------------- Win DS Win CS Win WS Yesterday NYY 60.2702 34.4812 21.8372 MIN 56.5401 26.3138 15.8403 OAK 43.4599 20.0096 11.4044 DET 39.7298 19.1954 10.6975 NYM 57.3097 35.0941 16.8086 SD 56.3919 26.6521 10.1328 STL 43.6081 15.8744 4.7604 LAD 42.6903 22.3794 8.5188
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