Last update: Fri Jul 4 08:46:00 2008 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesby Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Jul 4 07:19:39 EDT 2008
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.4 93.2 85.2 80.4 75.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 52 32 .607 97.5 64.5 64.09570 28.98171 93.07741 -0.05072 9.64228 Red Sox 51 37 .611 94.6 67.4 34.26613 49.63106 83.89719 3.93536 -1.24172 Yankees 45 41 .533 82.7 79.3 1.05518 5.01764 6.07282 -2.44619 -6.23262 Orioles 43 41 .498 79.4 82.6 .26289 1.62807 1.89096 -0.86712 -1.88475 Blue Jays 41 45 .546 79.3 82.7 .32010 1.64912 1.96922 -0.19905 -1.27234Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.4 84.7 79.9 74.8 69.6 92.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 49 36 .568 91.7 70.3 81.61019 1.16280 82.77299 -2.25706 8.73816 Twins 47 38 .479 82.5 79.5 10.22598 2.14541 12.37140 .32740 .30020 Tigers 43 42 .509 81.2 80.8 7.30406 1.31707 8.62113 1.42502 -3.95269 Royals 39 47 .471 73.1 88.9 .52851 .03291 .56142 .12620 -1.17077 Indians 37 48 .480 72.9 89.1 .33126 .03705 .36831 .01250 -1.76030Average wins by position in AL west: 91.4 85.9 79.4 65.8 91.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 51 34 .501 88.1 73.9 46.54567 3.69494 50.24060 -1.95044 .32698 Athletics 46 39 .560 88.0 74.0 45.72705 3.81205 49.53910 2.52660 -5.59604 Rangers 44 42 .499 80.6 81.4 7.71102 .88987 8.60089 -0.57198 4.09470 Mariners 33 52 .447 65.9 96.1 .01627 .00030 .01657 -0.01049 .00890 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.5Average wins by position in NL East: 90.9 85.1 81.0 76.4 63.4 91.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 47 39 .533 89.3 72.7 66.24003 4.96089 71.20092 5.79039 10.48458 Marlins 44 41 .470 80.2 81.8 7.77115 3.06143 10.83259 -2.29580 -0.91625 Mets 42 43 .509 83.2 78.8 17.66497 6.21475 23.87971 3.16971 4.17048 Braves 40 46 .520 80.8 81.2 8.32039 3.81272 12.13312 -3.96339 -13.80439 Nationals 34 53 .390 63.5 98.5 .00346 .00008 .00354 -0.00329 -0.00537Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.1 89.5 84.7 79.2 74.9 70.1 96.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 51 35 .556 95.0 67.0 73.87921 16.40709 90.28629 -1.20573 -2.95392 Cardinals 49 38 .502 87.2 74.8 13.10809 30.40221 43.51030 -2.64164 5.92017 Brewers 46 39 .502 87.2 74.8 12.57759 30.35425 42.93184 .55083 -2.40108 Pirates 40 44 .420 73.7 88.3 .07067 .56287 .63354 .05864 .06055 Astros 40 46 .458 76.3 85.7 .22723 1.26928 1.49651 -0.21422 -0.83641 Reds 40 47 .445 75.1 86.9 .13721 .88011 1.01732 .17929 -0.20584Average wins by position in NL West: 86.2 80.9 76.4 72.0 65.5 86.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 43 43 .509 83.6 78.4 53.95858 .85733 54.81591 -1.61783 -8.00097 Dodgers 41 44 .499 81.4 80.6 34.42390 .93984 35.36374 1.16164 11.16421 Giants 38 48 .473 75.6 86.4 7.60195 .18409 7.78604 1.09239 1.61997 Rockies 35 51 .474 73.8 88.2 3.77017 .09055 3.86071 .00499 -3.10976 Padres 33 53 .429 66.7 95.3 .24540 .00251 .24791 -0.06598 -1.18597 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.0
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.