Last update: Thu Jul 2 07:31:00 2009 PT
Playing the rest of the season a million timesby Clay Davenport
See the PECOTA-adjusted version of this report. As well as the ELO-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jul 2 07:16:25 EDT 2009
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.2 93.2 88.7 81.8 70.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 48 30 .568 94.7 67.3 42.33338 32.43156 74.76494 1.95975 -7.45504 Yankees 45 32 .569 91.5 70.5 23.46939 28.32392 51.79332 3.53673 18.53931 Rays 44 36 .606 92.5 69.5 32.03336 28.55096 60.58432 -6.73926 10.65874 Blue Jays 42 38 .536 82.7 79.3 2.15372 5.70586 7.85958 1.72145 -18.22792 Orioles 35 43 .464 70.8 91.2 .01016 .05301 .06317 -0.03405 -0.34564Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.6 83.5 79.1 73.3 67.4 88.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 43 35 .494 83.9 78.1 36.04286 .77720 36.82006 -6.54045 -15.09403 Twins 41 39 .525 84.5 77.5 40.79708 .75846 41.55553 3.42929 4.06969 White Sox 40 38 .507 81.5 80.5 21.14450 .60211 21.74661 3.81946 14.77917 Royals 33 44 .481 72.2 89.8 1.48868 .02146 1.51014 -0.42844 -2.09356 Indians 31 49 .477 69.9 92.1 .52688 .00213 .52901 -0.28492 -3.11169Average wins by position in AL west: 89.1 83.4 78.3 70.4 89.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 42 34 .517 86.4 75.6 55.25467 1.02191 56.27657 -2.32113 1.22424 Rangers 42 35 .500 82.7 79.3 27.35260 .97001 28.32261 3.66953 -1.35797 Mariners 39 38 .499 80.8 81.2 16.33538 .76478 17.10017 -2.06399 -0.50951 Athletics 33 44 .468 71.3 90.7 1.05735 .01663 1.07398 .27602 -1.07578 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.3Average wins by position in NL East: 88.5 83.9 80.2 75.6 61.4 88.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Marlins 41 39 .480 81.5 80.5 20.81531 2.95397 23.76928 1.32456 7.54341 Phillies 39 36 .484 82.8 79.2 28.28415 4.27897 32.56311 -7.20196 -3.72355 Mets 38 39 .520 83.6 78.4 35.08649 3.09743 38.18392 3.14396 -20.24534 Braves 37 40 .498 80.1 81.9 15.80583 2.27728 18.08311 3.84490 6.73172 Nationals 22 54 .450 61.6 100.4 .00823 .00049 .00872 -0.00330 -0.01878Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.7 85.2 82.0 79.2 76.1 71.8 89.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 42 36 .483 83.9 78.1 27.58620 5.59749 33.18369 -4.30551 5.25552 Cardinals 42 38 .520 86.0 76.0 42.51559 6.06752 48.58311 3.51232 -13.36918 Reds 38 38 .463 78.9 83.1 7.70193 2.58257 10.28450 1.75472 4.72477 Cubs 37 38 .485 80.9 81.1 13.23889 3.86406 17.10295 3.65930 -6.24001 Astros 37 39 .456 77.1 84.9 4.57002 1.34862 5.91864 .38371 3.02726 Pirates 36 42 .474 77.3 84.7 4.38738 1.48207 5.86946 -2.43075 -0.03144Average wins by position in NL West: 98.5 88.6 82.0 74.1 67.8 98.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 50 29 .562 98.1 63.9 88.63127 8.37308 97.00434 .57554 -0.89494 Giants 42 35 .473 83.3 78.7 3.23764 18.46822 21.70586 -2.40860 4.45982 Rockies 41 37 .522 86.9 75.1 8.07968 38.92431 47.00400 -1.62563 13.94329 Padres 34 43 .438 71.7 90.3 .02889 .40648 .43537 -0.10909 -0.34208 Diamondbacks 31 47 .473 71.1 90.9 .02252 .27745 .29996 -0.11414 -0.82046 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 89.7
As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.